The Festival Handicaps

I see the weights for The County in realation to the horses marks are quite a bit different than last year
For instance Modem is on a mark of 141 and carries 11.7 which may just scupper his chances
Yet last year Arctic Fire was on 141 and carried 10.13
Can anyone tell me if there is a reason for this or is it just that the weights can compress differently each year?
 
It all depends on which entries stand their ground. The only handicap that gets artificially compressed is the Grand National.
 
Ah yes, That makes sense
Last year Diakali was to weight on 154
This year its Hawk High on 146
 
In case anyones wondering, The result we want in the plate is Monetaire to come 5th.
 
There's some gamble going on with Champagne James. He's over halved in priced since this morning.
 
I have no idea how it happened, and care even less, but Quick Jack has somehow managed to get into the County, and is clear jolly in most books.

It would be just spiffing if he consented to dolly-up.
 
Tanlic said:
That bamboozles me I'm sick of his in and out form.......hope AP wins on his very last festival ride
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Poor old AP, He gave NB a fine ride there and the horse looked he just didn't want to know when they jumped the last.
 
fonz said:
Poor old AP, He gave NB a fine ride there and the horse looked he just didn't want to know when they jumped the last.
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Shame NB didn't run on like Eastlake. Maybe AP chose the wrong one on his last hurrah at Cheltenham. Shame
 
Think I had a total of 4 placed horses and 1 win in the handicaps with numerous bets. For the level weights races I think I counted 9 wins.

My Cheltenham document has a list of rules on it. One of these is bet light on the handicaps and heavy on the level weights races. Must heed this next year!
 
I write rules for next year and then don't look at them. I used to like the Cheltenham handicaps but I do worse each year;first handicap on the Tuesday was always my lucky race. Are they getting more difficult or am I just getting worse?
 
I use trends for the handicaps. I know some will scoff at this but I have to narrow the field somehow and I just do not have the time to go through 24 runners in 3-4 races a day with a fine tooth comb.

Look at some of the winners this week as well. Darna, Wicklow Brave, Rivage D'or, Qualando. All incredibly difficult to predict.

What amazes me more is the gambles that go on. Roi Des Francs goes off 3/1 partly based on the fact he's wearing the same colours as last years winner. Grumeti & Blood Cotil over halving in price (both tailed off after about 3 fences). Princely Conn as well today.

My favourite races to bet on are the 4 miler and the Foxhunters. Level weight races where the top 4 or 5 highest rated always come to the fore.
 
Winner of the last race had ran well last year and I hadn't picked up on that. Same with the Foxhunters. I was so convinced that Paint the Clouds was unbeatable I didn't notice that On the Fringe had come third last year [I backed Carsonstown Boy though].
 
Someone tell me why the Irish horses are dominating these handicaps? Are they still too leniently assessed in UK? Are the UK horses just not good enough or the trainers & jockeys lacking? Is the UK season too competitive the horses just underperform come CH ? I watch these handicap hurdles in IRE, am I underestimating the value of what I see ?

I fear CH has reached its high watermark. Great spectacle as always, but these are not the days of Fred Winter or Dickinson. Many races may become boutique races with few runners in 2 yrs from now.

Some people want the Derby on a Wednesday. Who wants to see 6 horses run round when 4 have the same owner.
 
The English handicapper got how many views of Wicklow Brave ?
I know the false starts scuppered his last two runs but how do you account for that ?
Handicappers are either well in or they are not; as a group the dice just rolled for Ireland this year imo, no more than that.
 
IMVHO Best thing we can do as punters is run a big blue pen through every handicap.........They are near impossible to solve and a quick way to an early punting grave.

Occasionally you might land lucky but overall you will lose.

Slim has the right idea include them in mixed ew bets for small stakes to win huge money.........aim at the moon and you're sure to hit the odd cloud.

As far as lumping into one goes that's crazy.......I only had one decent l bet in one if I remember right and only because P and C won.......On Tour............some daft bugger hampered him at the 2nd hurdle and all chance were gone.

Way too many horses fully dependant on luck in running.........crazy to bet in them
 
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