The Festival Handicaps

There is definitely something robotic about these JP-inspired gambles which happen at this time every year. The momentum seems even more pronounced than usual, due no doubt to McCoy's impending retirement, and it's hard to think of a horse of his that hasn't been backed.

McCoy is not going to benefit from one of those 'last-few-rides' tap-ins, that have happened over the years (allegedly). This is Cheltenham, and there will be absolutely no gimmes - yet these horse's are being backed as if one of them is a certified nudge-nudge-wink-wink job - and all you need to do is back them blind and you can't miss. They are rank bad value, and it will at least make some elbow-room in the market, for horses with much better chances.
 
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You're better looking at which one's of JP's haven't been significantly backed at this stage.

JP often saves a good old plunge for the day with Freddie Williams (daughter Jane these days), and it's not unusual for a JP horse to win a handicap without massive weight of money behind it anyway.

The obvious chances in the Graded races are there for all to see, and most of us are wise enough to see the obvious ones that are plotted up and can decide which ones to avoid. It's finding the dark one that's hard, and given Jonjo's early season woes I'd imagine there's likely to be one or two lurking with him.
 
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Pendra ran well at last year's festival and might have even won but for clouting three out and the last. For some unknown reason they decided to run him in the Irish Nash and possibly finished him. There's no evidence he stays 3m although being by Old Vic you'd think there's every chance. Shockingly bad value at 7/1 should be 25s IMO.


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Maruco said:
You're better looking at which one's of JP's haven't been significantly backed at this stage.

JP often saves a good old plunge for the day with Freddie Williams (daughter Jane these days), and it's not unusual for a JP horse to win a handicap without massive weight of money behind it anyway.

The obvious chances in the Graded races are there for all to see, and most of us are wise enough to see the obvious ones that are plotted up and can decide which ones to avoid. It's finding the dark one that's hard, and given Jonjo's early season woes I'd imagine there's likely to be one or two lurking with him.
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Not a JP horse but Goodwood Mirage is the one :ninja:
 
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viking said:
Pendra ran well at last year's festival and might have even won but for clouting three out and the last. For some unknown reason they decided to run him in the Irish Nash and possibly finished him. There's no evidence he stays 3m although being by Old Vic you'd think there's every chance. Shockingly bad value at 7/1 should be 25s IMO.


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Into 6's now! Absurd.
 
Assume Daryl Jacob will get first choice on the Munir horses but expect him to choose Unanimite over BS


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Bonjers said:
Into 6's now! Absurd.
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AP rides JP owns Cheltenham yard going well......great false fav for the bookies.

The horse has been touted as having a good chance by his trainer but no way will JP lump on to him.

He's already been beaten at Cheltenham in a novice handicap so unless he's sprouted wings he can't be regarded as being one to have your lunch money on.

Plus JP does not back horses until the day so it's not his money
 
Nicholls has taken out Caesar Milan at the very last minute to get Keltus into the Novice handicap, mind you CM fell while schooling at the weekend.
 
JP's best handicap chance may come as early as the 3-miler on Tuesday. I'm starting to like the look of STFD (I assume the plan is to run).
 
I am all over Cold March for the closing novices handicap chase tomorrow. It has Venetia 'getting the right mark' written all over it. It's gone up 6lb without winning (322) when not being highly tried on soft ground. He needs tomorrow's trip and he's bred for better ground, so he's be expected to improve significantly just for that.

It's French form stands up to scrutiny. Pertinently against horses running over here, over hurdles it's beaten Keltus (3rd favourite in this) by 28 lengths, and remarkably it was also ahead of L'Ami Serge by 22 lengths.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

Probably the most valuable piece of information however is that a friend of mine is a private handicapper and he's rated his French form at 147p. Importantly that's been corroborated by someone who posts here who rated his chase in June over in France as 145p. Those ratings have his form between 5 and 7lbs ahead of the handicapper also with the all important p after the ratings. It's very possible he's capable of a rating that tips over the 150 mark so he could be as much as 10lbs+ ahead.

In the context of the race most have already shown there hand, but as always a well handicapped horse cna always be beaten by an even better handicapped horse. If there's one in there I can't find it though.

25/1 is way too big, so I've had three very large each way bets on him. Even if he only places it'll make for a very nice Festival.

PS. Double Handful, I'm also on Lost Legend in the earlier Festival Chase who, if running well, would pay a very big compliment to Cold March who I'm convinced wasn't off that day.
 
Going to have to put something on Cold March now. You've picked out quite a few big prices in the past! The top weight should go well with 1st time cheekpieces. He should have finished 2nd to Faugheen at last years festival. I also like Horizontal Speed who has the right profile and ran a promising race against Saphir De Rheu.
 
RP doesn't indicate first time pieces, are you sure ?


edit if Killala Quay DOES have first time pieces that's the second Charlie Longsdon horse tomorrow wearing first time pieces not reported in the RP as being first time
 
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I'm not an enthusiast for Cold March, Paul.

His first steeplechase outing was a provincial 3-runner affair, and the form of the second outing is only so-so, in my view. If they'd really expected him to go on over fences, and make the top-grade as a 4yo (which a horse with pretensions to being 145+ should be thinking about), then they would surely have run him in the Prix Ferdinand Dufaure at the June meeting, instead of dropping him back into hurdles.

In my view he didn't run enough times (and wasn't highly-enough tried) over fences in France, to adopt a strong position around his rating, and I think that suggested marks in the mid-140's are a little bit fanciful, to be honest. The only way to produce such a figure for Cold March, is if you took a very literal view of the form against Protekapril.....and that takes too much a leap of the imagination - for me at any rate.

With 7 steeplechase runs under his belt, and a degree of consistency shown in each of them, I also question whether the 'p' on the rating is justified. His three defeats since joining Venetia have merit, but a degree of legitimacy too, and whilst he is perhaps not entirely exposed yet, I think he's handicapped about right for what he achieved. Quicker ground might perhaps be a plus in his favour though.

My view from the Curmudgeon's Chair. :lol:
 
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