The Festival Handicaps

fonz said:
Wouldn't carry my money for the National, looked like he hated it last time.
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two years ago when he was only 7 and ran on well at the death, so not sure he hated it. I'm sure this has been the target all year and confident he'll go well. Not ground dependent either
 
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Too early for me to be getting involved even with the NRNB (& BOG with B365) concession but I'll almost certainly be backing Holywell in the Ultima. He's now even lower than when running away from all bar UTPT last year.
 
Statement from Phil Smith following release of weights

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Phil Smith seems to think the win rates of Irish and British horses in handicaps run in Britain should be the same.

But that assumes there's no extra cost or bother sending horses across the Irish Sea, which is clearly wrong. The win rate of visiting horses ought to be substantially higher than for the locals, whether it's Irish horses in British handicaps or British horses in Irish ones, because entries of this kind are selectively made.

It would be interesting to know as well whether similar count is kept of the success rate of horses from the south of England and Wales at northern and Scottish tracks.
 
Grey said:
whether it's Irish horses in British handicaps or British horses in Irish ones, because entries of this kind are selectively made.
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British horses in Irish handicaps are disadvantaged because the Irish handicapper uses the UK rating.
 
Kauto Abu said:
Really like the look of The Storyteller in the Martin Pipe.


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Got a lovely weight for this today, just a pound higher than his Irish rating. On at 10s, into 6s now and that probably wont last long after Elliott gave him as his charity bet tonight on Betfair preview.



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I don't think there was ever anything untoward going on with Irish horses winning handicaps in all honesty.
Perhaps the Irish trainers just knew how to get the best out of their horses. That's why they sent them over in the first place.

I'm starting to believe its not 'well handicapped' horses disturbing the equilibrium of the handicap system at all,.
After all, you can only prove your well handicapped after you've actually won a race. There's nothing wrong with horses wanting to win races.

Its unfit horses, fat & lazy horses, that never win and that couldn't exploit a legless filly in an equine brothel, let alone a nice handicap mark.. that pee me right off.
 
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Just a personal view, but aren't many Irish races run at a steadier pace than the norm over here, and wouldn't that lead to their horses being less exposed than ours anyway?
 
Desert Orchid said:
British horses in Irish handicaps are disadvantaged because the Irish handicapper uses the UK rating.
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You could be right where the jumps are concerned, but the sample size wouldn't be great. On the other hand I wouldn't be surprised if the situation is different on the flat, where there have been quite a few GB winners in recent years.

But in any case other things being equal you would expect horses crossing the water in either direction would do better than the local horses.

As I've said before though, the best outcome would be for the UK and Irish handicappers to try harder to align their ratings. O'Leary has a point when he says that if Phil Smith wants to do his own ratings of Irish form he should publish them.
 
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Grey said:
Phil Smith seems to think the win rates of Irish and British horses in handicaps run in Britain should be the same.

But that assumes there's no extra cost or bother sending horses across the Irish Sea, which is clearly wrong. The win rate of visiting horses ought to be substantially higher than for the locals, whether it's Irish horses in British handicaps or British horses in Irish ones, because entries of this kind are selectively made.

It would be interesting to know as well whether similar count is kept of the success rate of horses from the south of England and Wales at northern and Scottish tracks.
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I wish you could put that point to Phil Smith.
 
Winter Escape - the one that didn't go for me in the Betfair Hurdle - has been backed for the County this morning. There's still 25/1 in places, and he is as low as 12/1 (B365 WAR). He needs a few to come out (#34), but he should get a run from a low-weight (10-8), if this is the target.

Tombstone predictably-backed too.
 
Tombstone got well smashed up. I took 12s last night after Elliott's comments at the BF preview. He's as low as 6's with NRNB firms.

Likewise with The Storyteller for the Martin Pipe. Into 9/2 in places after Elliott's charity bet selection. Still think he'll go off shorter. I think he's a good thing.


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reet hard said:
Just a personal view, but aren't many Irish races run at a steadier pace than the norm over here..?
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I used to think that until I watched a few Irish races, certainly the more important ones. I think they tend, if anything, to go faster in Ireland in these races, at least on the better ground.

This leads me to another question: is there a standard rail size?

I ask because I've often seen races that looked fast/slow to the eye but which the clock suggested was the opposite. I wondered if a narrower gap between the uprights of the rails would make horses appear fast while a wider gap would make them appear slower.
 
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