The Festival Handicaps

What Phil Smith is essentially saying is that his team view some form differently than their Irish counterparts. Not that he's penalising for the sake of it. Irish handicappers have continued to outperform their numbers irrespective of this so it could be argued he's not harsh enough. I don't believe that, but on the whole I do think he's doing a pretty decent job. When I look at this years handicaps, on balance I'm looking at more Irish horses that I believe are well handicapped than UK horses. That being the case I can't buy Kevin Blake's position.
 
I'm with you on this, Paul. The stats don't back-up the anti-Irish-bias argument - they work against it.

If the OH's on either side of the sea could agree to operate within a certain tolerance.....say the 'remote' Handicapper must rate within +/- 3lbs of the local Handicapper.....then at least there would be a framework, and everyone would have some kind of idea as to how things would land, when sending horses into the 'other' jusrisdiction for handicap races.

A lot of the criticism of Smith isn't justified, imo, but it is all very arbitrary, and people don't like surprises. The Handicappers could do themselves a favour, by trying to bring-about some parity.
 
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Blake's central point is one that has already been made on this thread, that you would expect horses crossing the Irish Sea in either direction to substantially outperform the locals. I don't think anyone has addressed it yet.

[FONT=&quot]An Irish trainer is only likely to bring one of their horses to Great Britain to run in a handicap hurdle or chase when they believe that not only is their horse in top form, but that they are progressive enough to go close.
[/FONT][FONT=&quot]For this reason, it is to be statistically expected that a group of such highly-selectively picked Irish-trained handicappers will significantly outperform the general population of handicappers trained in Great Britain given that this group contains every poorly handicapped and out-of-form performer in the country.[/FONT]
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By the way switch the words British and Irish in this quote and the argument should still apply.
 
Blake's central point is tosh!
Horses rarely cross the sea, in either direction, unless it's a valuable or prestigious race, and to suggest such races are full of "poorly handicapped or out-of-form performers'' is wide enough of the mark to be considered disingenuous. It's hard enough to get a run in these races, let alone with the kind of horse KB implys as fillers.
As has been mooted earlier, the crux of the matter seems to be underexposed Irish horses; Phil Smith probably recognises this, but is hardly in a position to give voice to it.
 
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You would have a point, Reet, if it was true that the better races are the only ones being targeted, but it's not that simple.

In the last five years Gordon Elliott has had 9 winners at Cheltenham, 4 at Aintree, 2 at Ascot, none (from very few runners) at Sandown, Newbury, Chepstow, Doncaster, Haydock or Kempton. His overall strike rate at these higher grade tracks is 6 from 62, let's say 10%. In the same period however he has had 68 winners at Perth (28% strike rate), 10 at Cartmel (25%) and his overall British strike rate is well over 20%. He is 65 from 343 in handicaps and sellers, a strike rate of 19%, with the great bulk of them coming at gaff tracks.

Five of Tony Martin's 11 winners came at Cheltenham, but the others were at Perth, Hereford and Musselburgh. Nine of the wins were in handicaps at a 13% strike rate.

Shark Hanlon's 11 wins all came at gaff tracks, 10 of them in handicaps at a strike rate of 15%.

These high percentages are feeding in, don't forget, to Phil Smith's average figure of 11% for Irish stables in GB handicaps.
 
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Grey said:
You would have a point, Reet, if it was true that the better races are the only ones being targeted, but it's not that simple.

In the last five years Gordon Elliott has had 9 winners at Cheltenham, 4 at Aintree, 2 at Ascot, none (from very few runners) at Sandown, Newbury, Chepstow, Doncaster, Haydock or Kempton. His overall strike rate at these higher grade tracks is 6 from 62, let's say 10%. In the same period however he has had 68 winners at Perth (28% strike rate), 10 at Cartmel (25%) and his overall British strike rate is well over 20%. He is 65 from 343 in handicaps and sellers, a strike rate of 19%, with the great bulk of them coming at gaff tracks.

Five of Tony Martin's 11 winners came at Cheltenham, but the others were at Perth, Hereford and Musselburgh. Nine of the wins were in handicaps at a 13% strike rate.

Shark Hanlon's 11 wins all came at gaff tracks, 10 of them in handicaps at a strike rate of 15%.

These high percentages are feeding in, don't forget, to Phil Smith's average figure of 11% for Irish stables in GB handicaps.
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He needs to factor in expected winners too. So many of the Elliot horses will be 3/1 or shorter in the betting.
 
Grey said:
You would have a point, Reet, if it was true that the better races are the only ones being targeted, but it's not that simple.

In the last five years Gordon Elliott has had 9 winners at Cheltenham, 4 at Aintree, 2 at Ascot, none (from very few runners) at Sandown, Newbury, Chepstow, Doncaster, Haydock or Kempton. His overall strike rate at these higher grade tracks is 6 from 62, let's say 10%. In the same period however he has had 68 winners at Perth (28% strike rate), 10 at Cartmel (25%) and his overall British strike rate is well over 20%. He is 65 from 343 in handicaps and sellers, a strike rate of 19%, with the great bulk of them coming at gaff tracks.

Five of Tony Martin's 11 winners came at Cheltenham, but the others were at Perth, Hereford and Musselburgh. Nine of the wins were in handicaps at a 13% strike rate.

Shark Hanlon's 11 wins all came at gaff tracks, 10 of them in handicaps at a strike rate of 15%.

These high percentages are feeding in, don't forget, to Phil Smith's average figure of 11% for Irish stables in GB handicaps.
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I was about to say similar...they are targeting the northern tracks.
 
Those strike rates in handicaps are outstanding though. Many decent trainers would die for a strike rate like that. I'd also point out that he brings many back and they win for a second or even third time, which doesn't strike me as though the UK Handicapper is being overly harsh.
 
Because Phil Smith and Co are producing their own ratings for Irish horses Moscow. It's not about unilaterally putting them up or down, it's how his team rate the Irish horses on their interpretation of the collateral form.
 
Maruco said:
Those strike rates in handicaps are outstanding though. Many decent trainers would die for a strike rate like that. I'd also point out that he brings many back and they win for a second or even third time, which doesn't strike me as though the UK Handicapper is being overly harsh.
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They are fine strike rates indeed, Paul, but Elliott's success at Perth is not unique. He may have been the first to spot the opportunities there but others have followed. In the last five years Twister is 22% (18/83), Tim Vaughan is 34% (15/44), David Pipe is 46% (13/28).
 
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But the three mentioned have overall handicap strike rates in this UK lower than Gordon Elliott Art. Elliott also still outperforms them overall and also when it comes to the main Festivals. I also suspect he'll widen that margin next week irrespective of the punitive penalties that Kevin Blake suggests he makes.

Another consideration is that Elliott has to pay to travel them over here for less money in a normal handicap which, suggests he categorically knows he's got a better chance of his horses getting a win here rather than in similar races at home. Why else would he send them over.
 
Back to the races. I have this lucky fifteen since last week. Comments?

[FONT=&quot]Ultima Handicap (Tues) Singlefarmpayment 9/1[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Coral Cup (Weds) Automated 12/1[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Pertemps Final (Thurs) Impulsive Star 10/1[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]County Hurdle (Fri) Micks Jazz 10/1[/FONT]
 
Winter's Escape wins the County. Cast-iron McManus plot job, I reckon - hidden in plain-sight.

No real opinion on the other handicaps, other than I think Tombstone is probably chucked-in in the Coral Cup.
 
Grasshopper said:
Winter's Escape wins the County. Cast-iron McManus plot job, I reckon - hidden in plain-sight.

No real opinion on the other handicaps, other than I think Tombstone is probably chucked-in in the Coral Cup.
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Correct on Tombstone... but the price has gone now unless you backed it last week.
 
I get the feeling Marinero is a horse Henry De Bromhead could do well with. A few second's and a win thus far over fences, including the second to Thistlecrack in a Novice Chase last time. He'd be an interesting declaration for the Ultima imho, his first handicap chase start in England. He likes to be prominent so I'm confident/hopeful I'll get a run for my money with him. Improvement is required, but I'd argue he is more able to find the necessary progression, than some of the others.

Just putting it out there!
 
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an capall said:
Back to the races. I have this lucky fifteen since last week. Comments?

Ultima Handicap (Tues) Singlefarmpayment 9/1
Coral Cup (Weds) Automated 12/1
Pertemps Final (Thurs) Impulsive Star 10/1
County Hurdle (Fri) Micks Jazz 10/1
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elliot horses good chance
the other 2 not so interesting
 
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