The Fighting Fifth

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
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The first test of the season for Champion Hurdle hopefuls.

Cinder's and Ashes is currently fav and Donald McCain seems pretty confident he'll win this on his way to bigger things. He certainly beat Darlan much easier than the distance suggested or would have if he had not rooted the last hurdle.

That said Darlan never looked happy on the rain softened ground.

Nicky Henderson has 2 entered but it's extremely doubtful he will run both.

The original plan was most likely for Darlan to go Racing Post/International hurdle and for Grandouet to go here but it would make perfect sense for them to switch.

Darlan is probably ahead of Grandouet fitness wise and Nicky always said he'd like to give Grandouet another look at Cheltenham before the Champion Hurdle

Binocular isn't back from Ireland yet and the plan for him is to go for the Xmas Hurdle.

It looks like a rematch between Darlan and Cinder and Ashes could be on the cards.

Go Native looks like he's giving it a miss but if Coutryside Flame and Rock on Ruby most of the others will be scared off.

I reckon Cinders and Ashes is the right fav for this and will take all the beating.

No doubt in my mind Grandouet is Nicky's number 1 but taking on McCain's horse fist time back wouldn't be doing him any fav so hopefully I am right and he'll miss it.

Cinders and Ashes if you can get 3/1 looks worth taking
 
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Tanlic said:
The first test of the season for Champion Hurdle hopefuls.

Cinder's and Ashes is currently fav and Donald McCain seems pretty confident he'll win this on his way to bigger things. He certainly beat Darlan much easier than the distance suggested or would have if he had not rooted the last hurdle.

That said Darlan never looked happy on the rain softened ground.

Nicky Henderson has 2 entered but it's extremely doubtful he will run both.

The original plan was most likely for Darlan to go Racing Post/International hurdle and for Grandouet to go here but it would make perfect sense for them to switch.

Darlan is probably ahead of Grandouet fitness wise and Nicky always said he'd like to give Grandouet another look at Cheltenham before the Champion Hurdle

Binocular isn't back from Ireland yet and the plan for him is to go for the Xmas Hurdle.

It looks like a rematch between Darlan and Cinder and Ashes could be on the cards.

Go Native looks like he's giving it a miss but if Coutryside Flame and Rock on Ruby most of the others will be scared off.

I reckon Cinders and Ashes is the right fav for this and will take all the beating.

No doubt in my mind Grandouet is Nicky's number 1 but taking on McCain's horse fist time back wouldn't be doing him any fav so hopefully I am right and he'll miss it.

Cinders and Ashes if you can get 3/1 looks worth taking
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I think this years Supreme will prove to be a weak bunch, with probably Montbazon being the most progressive. They will certainly have their work cut out to match the 2011 runners, who are proving to be the strongest bunch in recent memory, to of came out of the race.

I can see Rock On Ruby winning this if lining up.
 
If you are right and he did beat the likes of Darlan with a bit in hand I wonder what reaction it would have in the Champion Hurdle market.

It's odd he's 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle Cinders and Ashes and Darlan are around 12's but for this one they go early other way round.

Considering he ran Binocular to a length at Kempton it surely can't be the course?

Maybe the Rock on Ruby trained by Harry Fry worries some people but it shouldn't as hasn't he always trained him and Paul Nichols was just the name on the door who gave him a bit of advice now and then?

I would imagine the only advice Paul will give him now is please don't take any of mines on ;0)
 
Hamm said:
Who was it who kept this up last year?
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it were me

they just don't win both races in same year..xmas hurdle isn't much of a guide either;)

Kribensis did both..but apart from him there are a lot of losing FF & xmas hurdle winners failed to win the biggie in teh last 30 years
 
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What if it was a below par renewal, a horse did nothing but blow away cobwebs, but because they are so talented, that accounted for the opposition - is that a negative? (time would be exactly the same as finishing second every other year, exact same sectionals)
 
Hamm said:
What if it was a below par renewal, a horse did nothing but blow away cobwebs, but because they are so talented, that accounted for the opposition - is that a negative? (time would be exactly the same as finishing second every other year, exact same sectionals)
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of course..Kribensis did both races..its not impossible but the % call is that these races don't seem to be key races for the big one..and that goes back a fair way.

i think i've mentioned it for the last 2 years and got laughed at..so we'll see.

it all depends if you believe that certain races are key to other races...and & call is neither of these races is.

the xmas hurdle for instance is a completely different ask to what they face at Cheltenham..flat right hand track...so really why should it be a pointer to the CH?
 
Grasshopper said:
I will discuss the Champion Hurdle when Hurricane Fly's career is at an end, and no earlier.:cool:
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i wouldn't be writing him off thats for sure..the winner last year got a perfect ride and had that extra bit of stamina at the end..HF just could not pull back the 4 lengths+ he was behind at the first hurdle...i truly think last years race was won at that early a stage...which could be predictive in that if the race is a stamina sapper then maybe that doesn't suit HF as much as the year he won where his speed won the day off a slower early pace.

my theory two years ago about HF was that i would have waited another year..which obviously he proved me wrong..but i always thought later rather than sooner for HF..he is one hell of hurdler now with all his experience behind him..take something smart to beat him. Maybe Celestial Halo :lol:
 
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What about Punjabi EC1? He won both.

Overturn won the race and ran better than the so callled big boys in the CH. Peddlers Cross went onto finish 2nd in the CH after winning the race.

It's a fairly good pointer in recent years imo
 
EC1 said:
it were me

they just don't win both races in same year..xmas hurdle isn't much of a guide either;)

Kribensis did both..but apart from him there are a lot of losing FF & xmas hurdle winners failed to win the biggie in teh last 30 years
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Been a few though Salmon Spray, Magic Court, Bula Comedy Of Errors, Rooster Booster, Binocular, Lanzarote, Dawn Run, Kribensis, Sea Pigeon, Gay Brief and Punjabi either won the Fighting Fifth, The International or the Xmas Hurdle and won about 17 Champion Hurdles between them.

Surely it's not a stat worth paying any attention to and it's more down to the individual horse.

I'm hoping Grandouet wins the Champion Hurdle and I'm led to believe he'll be going for the International again so I hope your wrong.:blink:

The more I watch Hurricane Fly's win the other day the more it brings back memories of how good he is and he'll probably run twice more by the New Year. He is without a doubt the horse most trainers will fear on the day and me if he turns up.

Granted the pre xmas races haven't had a great record lately but Istabraq won the race 3 times, Hurricane Fly, Brave Inca and Sublimity once each Hardy twice and the Irish don't often cross the chanel before the big one.
 
Tanlic said:
Been a few though Salmon Spray, Magic Court, Bula Comedy Of Errors, Rooster Booster, Binocular, Lanzarote, Dawn Run, Kribensis, Sea Pigeon, Gay Brief and Punjabi either won the Fighting Fifth, The International or the Xmas Hurdle and won about 17 Champion Hurdles between them.

Surely it's not a stat worth paying any attention to and it's more down to the individual horse.

I'm hoping Grandouet wins the Champion Hurdle and I'm led to believe he'll be going for the International again so I hope your wrong.:blink:

The more I watch Hurricane Fly's win the other day the more it brings back memories of how good he is and he'll probably run twice more by the New Year. He is without a doubt the horse most trainers will fear on the day and me if he turns up.

Granted the pre xmas races haven't had a great record lately but Istabraq won the race 3 times, Hurricane Fly, Brave Inca and Sublimity once each Hardy twice and the Irish don't often cross the chanel before the big one.
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i should have said same season..not year..

yes i missed Punjabi..was run at wetherby though;)
 
Nicholl's obviously doesn't rate the race, having only sent Celestial there last season as his only runner in recent seasons, which I think was a simple pot hunting exercise. I'd have expected an entry at least for the likes of Brampour.

Overturn was a certain n/r last year, having said the horse needs a rest and ran at Ascot the previous week. McCain changed his mind, ran him again and the risk paid off, but they still gave the horse another two runs, which baffled me.
 
going back to the Christmas Hurdle..since 1969 only two horses have won it and then won the CH in the same season...Dawn Run & Kribensis

which makes it a worse pointer to finding the CH winner than any other top hurdle race i would have thought

so even though we always show a lot of interest in the winner of the race when looking forward to the CH..its outcome is no real help in finding the big race winner if you are looking at the winner of the Kempton race.

its possible that a placer has more chance as they may lose at kempton as it doesn't play to their strengths..but find they can reverse form at a track more favourable as in Cheltenham...a bit like how Denman favoured a track like Cheltenham over Kempton..speed v stamina type of thing..you could also think that Rock On Ruby was far better suited to Cheltenham which played to stamina after losing at speedy Kempton to Binocular

going back to the FF..its interesting that Birds Nest loved the race and won it 3 times..but he was never the same horse at Cheltenham

maybe in both cases course characteristics/differences are at play

i always thought the FF was too early in the year to be a real pointer for Cheltenham..could be a number of things

there is something at play though imo
 
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Birds Nest had better form inthe first half of the season most yrs.
He ran just 2 good CHs 2nd in 76 and 3rd in80.
Night Nurse forgotten in your analysis. Won FFin75, then Irish Sweeps before Chel.
His season 76_77 went a little astray before CH win and Liverpool epic.
Again the introduction of Grade 1 hurdles in Ireland esp in last 15 yrs has changed the landscape re race trends, so races like FF have suffered except when £1m bonus was present for FF, International and CH.
Great posts here with no A or KS to bother us...yet
 
Don't mean to offend but I think it's a moot point unless you actually fancied or backed any of the horses that won the Fighting Fifth or the Xmas Hurdle.

The last horse I backed that won the Xmas Hurdle in the same season was Kribensis and wouldn't even have considered backing any of the others after him bar Binocular but when he actually won the race I had switched to Hurricane Fly.

If Hurricane Fly had come across the water and run in the Xmas Hurdle would it have stopped me and thousands of others backing him or him winning it? I doubt it

The Fighting Fifth is the same although I might have backed Dato Star I really don't remember.

I don't think you can eliminate a race and say if you win this you are not going to win the Champion Hurdle but you can eliminate the horse that wins it if you don't fancy it.

The fighting Fifth was won 9 times in 20 years by a horse that won the Champion Hurdle and was second to none as guide over that period but what was a better guide was the actual horses themselves. Comedy of Errors, Sea Pigeon, Gay Brief Night Nurse and Kribensis didn't win the race because they won the Fighting Fifth they won it because they were the best around.

Rock on Ruby has already won the Champion Hurdle and if he is actually as good as his thrashing of Hurricane Fly and Binocular make him look on paper winning the FF won't stop him at Cheltenham. Who knows how good Cinder and Ashes is? He could be absolutely anything he's won 4 races on the trot and never looked like losing in any of them

Quite frankly it's nuts to use stats they only apply to the past and have no bearing whatsoever on the individual horse. Unless of course you believe in the boogie man ;)
 
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