The Gold Cup 2010

SteveM said:
A dramatic time of it at Newbury on Saturday. Back home now... Those who haven’t yet backed Denman must be rejoicing. I’m in again with the 7/2 since Saturday and much bigger prices on Betfair (after backing him again at 9/4 before the race). I’ve so far averaged about 5/1 overall.
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Did any of us expect anything less?!? :D
 
SteveM said:
Collected a magnificent framed picture of Denman winning the Hennessy from Tracy Roberts, which now graces my study.
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Smart move, Steve.

It can probably be pawned for baked-bean money, after you've done your absolutes. ;)

:D
 
SteveM said:
I’m in again with the 7/2 since Saturday and much bigger prices on Betfair (after backing him again at 9/4 before the race). I’ve so far averaged about 5/1 overall.
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Much as I've always been in the KS camp, 5/1 Denman is stonking value. I'd be tempted to take out some sickness insurance at those odds.
 
Watching it again, Denman was definitely starting to tread water a bit just approaching the fence he makes the initial mistake at - it definitely backs up McCoy's view that he was not overly happy with the horse.

They had not gone quick enough for fitness to be a serious issue imo and the horse has definite questions marks to answer now. Regardless serious jumping errors in two of his last three starts has to (or at least should) raise a level of concern going into a race like the Gold Cup.
 
The Aintree race is totally irrelevent. The horse wasn't right that seaon, you may as well bring up Kauto's exit in the Betfair.
 
Euronymous said:
The Aintree race is totally irrelevent. The horse wasn't right that seaon, you may as well bring up Kauto's exit in the Betfair.
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The horse ran well enough in the Gold Cup last season to think he was recovered for Aintree - indeed it his run in last season's Gold Cup that is put up by his supporters on here.

Anyway, like I said I was not happy with him going into the fence just prior to the mistake - I think his jumping errors and the McCoy debate could be hiding the fact Denman was just about to be asked a serious question to beat horses much inferior to him.
 
i'm interested in the fact that McCoy said he would ride him exactly the same in the Gold Cup. Also if they hadn't gone fast enough at Newbury then why didn't McCoy push on with Denman knowing full well that the horse would stay around there?
 
Ardross said:
I have watched it a number of times - he doesn't boot him into at all .He takes AP by surprise when he takes off so far out.
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I totally agree. If anything I thought McCoy was being quite soft. Denman's jumping fell apart for me and its a little bit worrying for Cherltenham now. However I will still be taking the bigger price!
 
The horse couldn't get away from his opposition, McCoy was looking back through his legs hoping to see them fading, but they weren't. Instead Denman was about to be collared. McCoy doesn't boot Denman into the fence at which he fell, but he is flapping away with his arms.

Btw Denman jumped the last two fences without McCoy on board but although he got over them both times it seemed a bit of a struggle for him.
 
this is why i didn't understand why they couldn't put Sam Thomas on board. He knows the horse extremely well obviously and i think had he been on board we would have had a different result altogether.
 
I'm not denying that there might be something wrong with denman, he wasn't travelling the way he normally does, however I don't know if McCoy rode him to the best advantage.
 
I wonder if Denman's performance - until four out - illustrates the fine line between full fitness and race-winning fitness for the very top horses.

I've noticed on the Flat that most proper G1 horses fail to hit 126 on their first run after an absence, even though they might win. I suppose trainers could get them fit if they really needed to but don't.

Paul Nicholls said on Saturday he really thought MM would win at Cheltenham so, accepting that he hadn't picked up on the broken rib, he maybe had MM fit enough to take care of the opposition but maybe not show his best form.

Then if anything goes wrong the horse becomes very vulnerable.

In terms of ability, Denman was so far ahead of his opponents the other day, it's probably safe to presume he wasn't anywhere near fit. Just fit enough to win. And maybe they just didn't get him fit enough.
 
That would be my reading too, G-G and DO. Like Trackside, I'd say he's a stuffy enough horse who takes plenty of getting fit.
 
While I would not expect him to be 100% fit - it still does not fit right with the horse's history of winning when fresh (including this race previously) and his utter collapse in such a short space of time.

Would have been really interesting to see what would have happened if he did not make those mistakes. They are talking about putting on a cross noseband now for the Gold Cup - does not sound like a fitness issue to me.
 
I think my main Gold Cup bet would be Cooldine in a match bet with Denman - anyone care to price this up?
 
Galileo said:
They are talking about putting on a cross noseband now for the Gold Cup - does not sound like a fitness issue to me.
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I have never seen Denman running without a cross noseband!!!
Only at home he wore a simple bridle.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I wonder if Denman's performance - until four out - illustrates the fine line between full fitness and race-winning fitness for the very top horses.

I've noticed on the Flat that most proper G1 horses fail to hit 126 on their first run after an absence, even though they might win. I suppose trainers could get them fit if they really needed to but don't.

Paul Nicholls said on Saturday he really thought MM would win at Cheltenham so, accepting that he hadn't picked up on the broken rib, he maybe had MM fit enough to take care of the opposition but maybe not show his best form.

Then if anything goes wrong the horse becomes very vulnerable.

In terms of ability, Denman was so far ahead of his opponents the other day, it's probably safe to presume he wasn't anywhere near fit. Just fit enough to win. And maybe they just didn't get him fit enough.
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I'm in full agreement with this. It's obvious there was nothing wrong with the horse for anyone with eyes in their head. Denman is a big gross horse and anything short of full fitness can lead him to look (and be) a bit clumsy (he landed very awkwardly after his mistake). He'll be pin sharp for the big one. The accuracy of his jumping at Cheltenham will take the breath away and prove the difference.
 
SteveM said:
I'm in full agreement with this. It's obvious there was nothing wrong with the horse for anyone with eyes in their head. Denman is a big gross horse and anything short of full fitness can lead him to look (and be) a bit clumsy (he landed very awkwardly after his mistake). He'll be pin sharp for the big one. The accuracy of his jumping at Cheltenham will take the breath away and prove the difference.
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I would suggest the opposite - it is nearly impossible fitness can account for a performance variation of 30 pounds or so, especially when this isn't his first run of the season, hence this somewhat negates DO's point.

I think there is either something wrong with the horse, he is is keeping something for himself, is becoming lackadaiscal or is not the horse he was. Whichever it is, he is now easy to rule out as far as I can see.
 
Hamm said:
I would suggest the opposite - it is nearly impossible fitness can account for a performance variation of 30 pounds or so, especially when this isn't his first run of the season, hence this somewhat negates DO's point.

I think there is either something wrong with the horse, he is is keeping something for himself, is becoming lackadaiscal or is not the horse he was. Whichever it is, he is now easy to rule out as far as I can see.
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He didn't finish the race, so you can't equate it to to a poundage underperformance. He was just lengthening and had been ambling round before that. He's like a heavyweight boxer who when not fully fit shouldn't fight. However superior you are on paper you have to be fit to show it. I have no doubt at all that he will win at Cheltenham.
 
The whole problem was he couldn't lengthen, and McCoy confirmed this afterwards and how disappointed he was with the horse not being able to pull away from Niche Market.

I don't know why everyone is assuming Denman was unfit - he wasn't. There may be more to come and he undoubtedly wasn't at 100% but he should have been able to comfortably forge clear of Niche Market and he wasn't - also, his jumping went to pot, and if I can't see him as any kind of threat.
 
SteveM said:
I have no doubt at all that he will win at Cheltenham.
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But you were pretty much certain he would win on Saturday judging by your previous posts.

Again I have no problem with people fancing Denman to win the Gold Cup - but its the reaction that absolutely no question marks were raised as a result of Saturdays run that is hard to take. Clearly it was far from an ideal prep race for Cheltenham.
 
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