The Gold Cup 2010

Galileo said:
But you were pretty much certain he would win on Saturday judging by your previous posts.

Again I have no problem with people fancing Denman to win the Gold Cup - but its the reaction that absolutely no question marks were raised as a result of Saturdays run that is hard to take. Clearly it was far from an ideal prep race for Cheltenham.
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Agree - horses simply do not win Gold Cups after a prep like Saturday.

You could make a strong case for place laying Denman at 4/5 or under.
 
SteveM said:
He didn't finish the race, so you can't equate it to to a poundage underperformance. He was just lengthening and had been ambling round before that. He's like a heavyweight boxer who when not fully fit shouldn't fight. However superior you are on paper you have to be fit to show it. I have no doubt at all that he will win at Cheltenham.
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He may not have had something wrong with him but he wasn't fully fit? well then that surely is something wrong, as in not being fit?
Galileo and Hamm are spot on. I'm an open Kauto fan and respect Denman without question, but I am far less worried about Kauto beating him at Cheltenham after Saturday.
 
Galileo said:
But you were pretty much certain he would win on Saturday judging by your previous posts.

Again I have no problem with people fancing Denman to win the Gold Cup - but its the reaction that absolutely no question marks were raised as a result of Saturdays run that is hard to take. Clearly it was far from an ideal prep race for Cheltenham.
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I think we have to say he would have won but for an error due to his lack of fitness. I'm not worried about anything else. Jockey and horse are clearly fine.
 
G-G said:
He may not have had something wrong with him but he wasn't fully fit? well then that surely is something wrong, as in not being fit?
Galileo and Hamm are spot on. I'm an open Kauto fan and respect Denman without question, but I am far less worried about Kauto beating him at Cheltenham after Saturday.
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Not being fit is to do with training, not to do with wellbeing (i.e. health).

Galileo and Hamm may well be "spot on" according to your own view. This does not necessarily mean they anywhere close to the reality of the situation (with the greatest possible respect ;)), however. We'll see who's spot on when he runs in the Gold Cup. I'm betting on it being Denman rather than these two.:p
 
SteveM said:
I think we have to say he would have won but for an error due to his lack of fitness. I'm not worried about anything else. Jockey and horse are clearly fine.
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He was going to be collared anyway, he was knackered.
 
Agree Grey.

Steve, how is an error down to lack of fitness?

Your defiance is admirable but I think you would have to concede his chance has lessened considerably after Saturday.
 
At the weights in the Aon Chase, Denman should have been in a different parish to Niche Market and Tricky Trickster. I'd fear that his poor run was due to more than not being fully fit.
 
SteveM said:
Not being fit is to do with training, not to do with wellbeing (i.e. health).

Galileo and Hamm may well be "spot on" according to your own view. This does not necessarily mean they anywhere close to the reality of the situation (with the greatest possible respect ;)), however. We'll see who's spot on when he runs in the Gold Cup. I'm betting on it being Denman rather than these two.:p
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It's not the horse's fault he wasn't fit but clearly he was not 'right', or if you prefer, to be able to run to anywhere near his best in that race, and if he had stood up, that he would have won. That doesn't mean he was not well, as in well being, but clearly was not 'right' for that race on the day.
Your passion is compelling SteveM.
 
Bar the Bull said:
As I read a few days ago, it is amazing how many people reckon he was cooked when he fell, given that he was 20/1 on in running.
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Good point Bar - he traded at 1.03 a couple of seconds before the mistake. I'm making no pronouncement beyond that, merely that the in-running punters were happy to take very short odds with more than half a mile left.
 
They were watching it live, though, while we have the benefit of any number of replays.
 
I don't bet in-running but, having laid Denman in the morning, I was quite encouraged about my prospects of success as they turned for home. I would genuinely question the astuteness of anyone taking 1/20 at that stage. I'd have to say my thoughts were along the lines of 'OK, he'll probably fend them off but he isn't going like a 1/6 shot.' (Unlike Master Minded four out and even he nearly blew it at the last.)
 
Hamm said:
Agree - horses simply do not win Gold Cups after a prep like Saturday.

You could make a strong case for place laying Denman at 4/5 or under.
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You could have made an even stronger case for place laying him last year, and where would that have got you?

I completely agree with those that think yesterday's race was worrying - it's near impossible to say his Gold Cup chances have not suffered. However, you still can't rule out a massive run at Chelters.

If he was mine, he'd be sporting a pair of blinkers next time out....
 
Not a bad idea - there's something not right with him, and it's quite likely he's 'keeping something to himself' (aka - ungenuine).
 
I think we'll see a different Denman next month. But I don't think it will matter, if the freak that lives next door to him turns up.
 
I certainly would not rule him out of the Gold Cup next year - far from it - but equally I would acknowledge that it was far from an ideal prep and it certainly raises SOME doubts.
 
i think we will see a completely different denman at cheltenham. i hope so. its about time that we see the two great steeplechasers take each other on when they are both at their best
 
We only saw the replay afterwards but the pair of us were of the opinion that Denman either wasn't right or was getting tired; the mistake he made when ploughing through the fence before he fell knocked the stuffing out of him and we both said "he's not right" on seeing him canter on to the next fence where he didn't even try to pick up and jump it.
 
I would like to say that he only got tired but having looked at the replay they didn't seem to go that quickly so I don't think tiredness could be an issue. More likely that there was something wrong but hopefully nothing too major
 
Shadow Leader said:
We only saw the replay afterwards but the pair of us were of the opinion that Denman either wasn't right or was getting tired; the mistake he made when ploughing through the fence before he fell knocked the stuffing out of him and we both said "he's not right" on seeing him canter on to the next fence where he didn't even try to pick up and jump it.
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I asked very early on the thread if he might have lost his action; the fact that he was so easily passed by Niche Market after the fence (and despite the mistake) suggest he never retained his equilibrium. I'm gobsmacked by statements from the yard that he probably would have won had he stood up.
 
rorydelargy said:
I asked very early on the thread if he might have lost his action; the fact that he was so easily passed by Niche Market after the fence (and despite the mistake) suggest he never retained his equilibrium. I'm gobsmacked by statements from the yard that he probably would have won had he stood up.
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