The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

TP was 20/1 when betting first opened on the race, and I expect EE was probably around the same price. Both probably shortened to a degree before they ran at Sandown, but can’t get to historical Oddschecker data atm.

10/1 the field is probably right, but rarely - if ever - happens in a race like the Hennessy these days.....if it ever did at all. The winner often goes off very short.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
But every now and again we get a Carruthers type: a solid, established handicapper whose form has struggled to keep up with the young improvers so the handicapper over-relents and he ends up getting in off a winnable mark. The Young Master is certainly in that category, getting to race off 139 having won the 2016 Whitbread off 148 and who has looked on good terms with himself after a couple of disappointing seasons.
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You go back to Carruthers year and the RSA from the previous March was probably the worst ever. The RSA is where I always want to start off for this race and the position of PP in the ante-post market suggests the last one was very good and Elegant Escape, whilst outclassed by the winner,stayed on well and wasn't that far behind Monalee. Kemboy's run in the JLT doesn't read anywhere near as well as the Tizzard horse.
 
Desert Orchid said:
But every now and again we get a Carruthers type: a solid, established handicapper whose form has struggled to keep up with the young improvers so the handicapper over-relents and he ends up getting in off a winnable mark. The Young Master is certainly in that category, getting to race off 139 having won the 2016 Whitbread off 148 and who has looked on good terms with himself after a couple of disappointing seasons.
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GH's remark about well-backed winners had me checking the records. I was surprised to see that Carruthers was only eight. I was sure he was an older horse. Looking back to my preview for the race I had him chucked in on his older form but didn't back him:


Newbury 3.10
(Norm 182)
Aiteen Thirtythree
181
? +?
Muirhead
181
?
Wymott
181
?
Fair Along
181
?
Great Endeavour
178
p t
Blazing Bailey
177
Balthazar King
176
p
Neptune Collonges
175
?
Tullamore Dew
175
Billie Magern
173
Carruthers
172
(186 e s)
Qhilimar
171
p
Wayward Prince
170
The Giant Bolster
170
o ++?
Sarando
169
Beshabar
168
+?
Planet Of Sound
-
((180))
Michel Le Bon
-
((170++))

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
Euronymous said:
The RSA is where I always want to start off for this race and the position of PP in the ante-post market suggests the last one was very good and Elegant Escape, whilst outclassed by the winner,stayed on well and wasn't that far behind Monalee.
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That was a top race but EE still emerges as a mid-150s horse.

What price would you have Ballyoptic for this Satruday's race off 153? (That would allow him 2lbs for 1.5 lengths defeat.)
 
Euronymous said:
Who else would be fav though? I guess you could put Ms Parfois in that position, she's a very sold jumper and the 4 miler could have been a good race. Kemboy? He's a terrible price - this time 11 years ago Denman off the same mark was 5/1. Kemboy is no Denman - he doesn't even jump that well. No other candidates imo.
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Agree with this - EE is an awful price now too but is the best horse in the race
 
Off the top of my head, Total Recall, Native River, Smad Place, Many Clouds, Denman, Bobsworth, Strong Flow, State Of Play and Trabolgan all won from near or at the head of the market. Sort of surprising, considering how competitive a race it is.
 
Euronymous said:
You go back to Carruthers year and the RSA from the previous March was probably the worst ever.
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I think it's fair to say Carruthers is atypical of a Hennessy winner.

However, he was only 13/2 for his RSA and had gone up to 156 for winning the Reynoldstown the time before (beat the Nicholls/Walsh 5/4f hands down) so to get into the Hennessy off 146 two years later following two moderate seasons was getting in lightly.
 
Any thoughts on horses having a prep run Vs not having a prep run?

Is there any trends that suggest either is a major positive/negative?

I'm thinking Invitation Only is potentially overpriced, but have it in the back of my head that not having a prep run is a negative for this race.
 
hezz said:
Any thoughts on horses having a prep run Vs not having a prep run?

Is there any trends that suggest either is a major positive/negative?
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My thought is that Alan King is a ****. I was all over Smad Place the year he didn't have a prep and finished like a drunken sailor. And I ignored him the following year suffice to say.
 
I'm not entirely sure why Alan King is so afraid of soft ground for Dingo Dollar, given he won his novice handicap chase on soft at Newbury by 15 lengths last season. He fell once at Exeter but that was officially good-soft. I suppose I would say that though, given I will down the local food bank, if a) he is scratched b) he doesn't win. :)
 
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This is a very tough race for second season chasers that have not had a prep.
They go hard all the way so jumping, fitness and experience of big fields are all important.
Jim C though he had Lord Windermere fit the year he ran but could not keep up.
 
And...re-Dingo Dollar, its not as if the ground is likely to be good or good-soft for The Welsh National on December 27th is it.
 
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Double J said:
Anyone give Otago Trial a chance?
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Impossible to rule out (regardless of how laughable Euro finds the idea) :)

Venetia Williams can have them ready after missing a whole season - she has form with this type - and he was progressive before his absence.

It isn't impossible that he could have improved naturally through his layoff.

I'd want 50/1 though!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Impossible to rule out (regardless of how laughable Euro finds the idea) :)

Venetia Williams can have them ready after missing a whole season - she has form with this type - and he was progressive before his absence.

It isn't impossible that he could have improved naturally through his layoff.

I'd want 50/1 though!
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Beaten Bristol De Mai and Definitely Red, giving DR weight. Followed that up with a 2nd to BDM round Haydock before beating some other smart horses not too long after. Admittedly not ran in nearly 2 years, just seeing how feasible it is the horse could come back after that long off, or would it just be out for a run out.

Saw it was bottom of the betting with 365 and can't remember him being a bad horse.
 
A few stats from another site looking at last 12 running's

11/12 Aged 6-8
6/12 LTO winners
7/12 Ran within 55 days
7/12 Top 3 betting
4/12 Winning favourites
9/12 Ran at Newbury
8/12 Won at Newbury
11/12 Minimum 3 runs at 3m or beyond
11/12 Minimum 4 chase runs
9/12 Rated 150 or above
7/12 One run or more current season.

Lowest winning rating 145 (State of play)

Highest rating 174 (The Tank)

Only Denman has carried more than 11-06 to victory in those 12 runnings.

Bobs Worth / Many Clouds both carried 11-06 as 7 yr olds.

Native River carried 11-01 back in 2016 as a 6 yr old.
 
Euronymous said:
The RSA is where I always want to start off for this race
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Me too but the big novices race at Aintree and the Francome at this meeting are also solid races. Sometimes a good novice will end up missing the big two festival races or will fail to finish but that can be a blessing in disguise.

The last three winners of the Francome were (most recent first):

Elegant Escape (but Black Corton emerges better at the weights)
Thistlecrack (runner-up Bigbadjohn won the Reynoldstown two outings later)
Native River (beat UTPT)

A cracking renewal in prospect on Saturday if half this lot turn up:

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/36/newbury/2018-12-01/715597/at-a-glance
 
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Double J said:
Anyone give Otago Trial a chance?
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Two reasons I wouldn't be backing him. Firstly he has an entry in the Rehearsal Chase, and either are likely to be preps for the Welsh National. I'd be tempted to back him for that and suspect Venetia has it marked down as his Gold Cup.
 
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Good news for Marble...

Dingo Dollar is the headline tip in the Weekender. Paul Kealy seems to really fancy it but Alan King is more circumspect about tipping it although in my opinion he does have a record when it comes to putting readers of his column away.

As an aside, I really don't see the point of allowing trainers a newspaper column if they aren't going to be 100% straight with what they say.

Anthony Honeyball (stable tour feature) says Ms Parfois has been trained for the race but might miss it depending on the ground.
 
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