The Oaks

On The Bridle said:
You taking the piss again......:rolleyes:
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Not at all. I just liked the ring of it.

It looks like a good Oaks, I think. The winner will need to be a very good filly. I can't see the Channon horse having a chance, and I am surprised that she is as short as 8/1.

Does Why have a chance now she runs over 12f? I have seen far worse 100/1 shots.

I fancy six horses so far.
 
I'm going e/w, Ardross - I know everyone on here looks only for winners, but I think she will place all right.
 
I think it is between the two Guineas winners. Normally there is a doubt about classic milers getting the Oaks trip, but on breeding Blue Bunting looks sure to get it and Misty For Me looks likely to get it too. In these circumstances the horses who have been contesting lesser races while waiting to step up to this trip, such as Havant and Wonder Of Wonders, might get shut out.

Misty is very tough and her Boussac and Ir1000 wins suggest she has a good chance of getting the trip. On paper her 3/4 length win over Together is the same as Blue Bunting's at Newmarket, but Blue Bunting is 5/2 and Misty is 8/1 with Ladbrokes. Blue Bunting has the better jockey on board, and has a greater probability of getting the trip. On the other hand, Misty is a fighter and has already got 3 Group 1s in her purse.

At the prices, I think Misty For Me each way is the optimal choice. I will also do a reverse forecast on the pair.
 
I've come full circle and decided Zain Al Boldan isn't a bad price at 12s after all. Yes she didn't beat a lot but she was very impressive and the time was strong. If she was trained by Cecil, she'd be second fav for this race. I've taken the 12s with Bet 365 at 1/3 Odds EW. Given you can lay 12s the win and 11/4 the place on Betfair, that's a very good bet.

I'm on Sirens Song very small antepost and agree with EC that she could improve and take a hand in this.

I think the favourite will probably win and win well but I couldn't back her sub 3/1 which is what I had her in at in a 100% book.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I've come full circle and decided Zain Al Boldan isn't a bad price at 12s after all. Yes she didn't beat a lot but she was very impressive and the time was strong. If she was trained by Cecil, she'd be second fav for this race.
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That's the point though isn't it? Channon is such a nearly trainer.

The milers are a poor bunch and Wonder of Wonders wins or Blue Bunting is another Balanchine. It'll go one way or the other for me. Much more of a clear cut race than the Derby.
 
Euronymous said:
That's the point though isn't it? Channon is such a nearly trainer.
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I know what you mean, I'm more hoping to sneak her into 3rd place being on at 4/1 a place to be honest. I can't see her turning either of the two you mentioned over but it's such a great mathematical bet and she's the only one I could genuinely say was definitely slightly overpriced.

I had the front 5 in as (to 100% for the whole race):

BB 3/1
WoW 5/1
ZaB 8/1
MfM 9/1
Havant 11/1
 
I think your first mistake was including her with the other 4 who seem much superior!
 
I disagree, Euro.

You have a lot of potnetial springers in the race, such as the Harrington filly, Dancing Rain and Beatrice Aurore.

It looks like a great betting heat and potetnially a good Oaks. And I think the milers will prove to be good.
 
I don't understand the negativity about Havant. Top trainer, well bred. Looked to be finishing her races very well at 2. The 1000 was funny race on very fast ground.

Her brother Leadership won a G1 for Godolphin. Two other members of her family won over a mile and a half. Indeed Tuscan won over two miles.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I disagree, Euro.

You have a lot of potnetial springers in the race, such as the Harrington filly, Dancing Rain and Beatrice Aurore.

It looks like a great betting heat and potetnially a good Oaks. And I think the milers will prove to be good.
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I'm coming round to this view. If Wonder Of Wonders can't win it, I'm struggling to see who will.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I don't understand the negativity about Havant. Top trainer, well bred. Looked to be finishing her races very well at 2. The 1000 was funny race on very fast ground.

Her brother Leadership won a G1 for Godolphin. Two other members of her family won over a mile and a half. Indeed Tuscan won over two miles.
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I'd prefer easy going for Havant. Having said that I think she'll be in the mix.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Thanks very much, Krizon. Just looking at the replay now on the Sporting Life website - they looked to go a decent clip.

It all points to genuinely good ground.
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the first race was a bit slow for class..the 2nd race makes the ground just a little faster than middle Good ground..it won't take much sun for Good to firm to take over
 
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