The Queen Anne

Harbinger

Harbinger

At the Start
Joined
Mar 22, 2004
Messages
11,282
I think this deserves a thread of its own.

Goldikova 5/2
TF 133, RPR 131, OR 130
Breeders' Cup Mile x2, Prix Jacques le Marois, Prix du Moulin, Prix d'Ispahan, Prix Rothschild x2, Falmouth Stakes

Rip Van Winkle 9/4
TF 134, RPR 132, OR 129
Sussex Stakes, Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Paco Boy 7/4
TF 129, RPR 127, OR 124
Queen Anne Stakes, Lockinge Stakes, Prix de la Foret

Remember that Goldikova gets her fillies' allowance (3 lbs).

Full entries: http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=503540&r_date=2010-06-15
 
Is an each way bet on Goldikova the best bet of this flat season? She is an absolute superstar, and neither of the other 2 have approached her level of form. Plus, Rip will be making his seasonal debut, not exactly a positive for a Ballydoyle horse.
 
I would have no doubts about Rip Van Winkle - they will have him hard as nails for this event. In saying that I would still give the French mare the edge.
 
I like Paco Boy a lot, but I would make him a cast iron lay at 7/4. He'll drft massively I would think - I could see him going off 3/1 or bigger.

I may be wrong, but you rarely see a market for a top class Group 1, with top class Group 1 animals, so upside down.
 
Given the level he was capable of last year, and the number of horses in the last 50 years that have better form I wouldn't be confident that he's 'likely' to have improved.
 
I think Rip needs to run to 139 to beat Goldikova and thats is very unlikely to happen, especially first time out in the season.
 
You're both kidding right? With the sex allowance Paco Boy has half a stone to find with Goldikova and was demolished by RVW at Goodwood. He's a fine horse but should be 9/2 at least.
 
Paco Boy strikes me as much improved this year and for all the hoohah about RVW's foot at Goodwood - Paco did himself a mischief in the Sussex .

He was also a bit unlucky behind Goldikova in the Moulin .

9-2 would be much too long.
 
Ardross said:
Paco Boy strikes me as much improved this year and for all the hoohah about RVW's foot at Goodwood - Paco did himself a mischief in the Sussex .
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Nothing in the race suggests Paco Boy was feeling anything in the race at all - whats more the stiffer mile of Ascot should suit Rip better than the Goodwood mile. Not doubting he injured himself - but as with the likes of Cape Blanco at York - it clearly did not impede his effort on the day.
 
Paco can't live with these two can he?

think RVW will break the fillie's heart tbh:)

RVW was only horse that really got to STS last year..made him work..only for a bit like :)
 
Euronymous said:
You're both kidding right? With the sex allowance Paco Boy has half a stone to find with Goldikova and was demolished by RVW at Goodwood. He's a fine horse but should be 9/2 at least.
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Its nothing to do with Paco Bay. The three of them currently make up nearly 96% of the book. There is no value in there.
 
By that rationale there can never be value in 3 ball betting or any football match surely?

They have the prices the wrong way around because PB's win was on a saturday on CH4. If Goldikova's race had had the same coverage she'd be 6/4 for this. And rightly so.
 
Gearoid said:
Its nothing to do with Paco Bay. The three of them currently make up nearly 96% of the book. There is no value in there.
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Value is about opinion held..and how race looked at..if you take the opinion PB won't beat these then you have 7/4-2/1 about the one you think will win between RVW & G..which is value in that mindset with PB removed from the equation..as that 90% is split between them equally..45% each..5/4 is estimate for each horse in that instance..so 2/1-7/4 is value to people taking that view
 
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But ooly Paddy Power and Boylesports have priced t up and one copy and pastes the others prices. The have shortened Goldikova from 7/2 and not lemgthened the others. On that basis there is no value. Id urgre people to wait for other books to get involved.
 
Gearoid said:
But ooly Paddy Power and Boylesports have priced t up and one copy and pastes the others prices. The have shortened Goldikova from 7/2 and not lemgthened the others. On that basis there is no value. Id urgre people to wait for other books to get involved.
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but there is value if you take the view that PB won't beat them..quite a lot actually..effectively ...what price other two without PB in the race?
 
For someone who uses maths as a way to look at form its a bit ironic you say a horse cant win and can be left out of the book to justify value.
 
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EC1 said:
Value is about opinion held..and how race looked at..if you take the opinion PB won't beat these then you have 7/4-2/1 about the one you think will win between RVW & G..which is value in that mindset with PB removed from the equation..as that 90% is split between them equally..45% each..5/4 is estimate for each horse in that instance..so 2/1-7/4 is value to people taking that view
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Even if you don't fancy Paco Boy to beat the other pair, you can't just totally dismiss him from calculations when making a market. At the moment Paco Boy is a 36% shot. I happen to think he should be around a 25% chance.

edit: great minds, Gearoid.
 
Gearoid said:
For someone who uses maths as a way to look at for its a bit ironic you say a horse cant win and can be left out of the book to justify value.
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no i'm not saying it can't win..just trying to show that value is how good you are at reading races..if you are and can spot enough horses that are unlikely to win..and you are good at it..you are automatically winning through "value"

value is all about ruling out horses that don't win as often as the betting suggests..and adding their % to the others

yes on paper..they have a chance that is probably reflected in their odds...but if you can't rule one of three out out through belief in your methods..you are buggered

so if you are good at removing horses ..you are automatically getting value on the others..as over a period of time you are getting 2/1 about 5/4 shots..in your opinion.

if you can't split these three horses..or 3 others in a similar sitch..then you might as well give the game up because you will never get "value"..you will just scratch your head

effectively ..you have got to find negatives that convince you a horse is more than likely going to lose

if someone looks at this and goes..oh well PB is a good horse..oh well RVW is a good horse..oh well G is a good horse..then you haven't a chance of getting value...someone with no knowledge of the game will have a smilar edge armed with a dice..roll it three times and allot the three throws ..one to each horse and back highest number.

if you don't take a view..I don't think you will ever get value..the margins are too tight without taking that view
 
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