The Queen Anne

trackside528 said:
Even if you don't fancy Paco Boy to beat the other pair, you can't just totally dismiss him from calculations when making a market. At the moment Paco Boy is a 36% shot. I happen to think he should be around a 25% chance.

edit: great minds, Gearoid.
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who is talking about making a market?..I'm talking about taking a view and having enough edge in your methods to dismiss a horse

i don't have these methods by the way :)

you can make a many books as you want..but if you don't take a view to remove a horse you can't win over time..imo

I know no one will agree with this..its far too untraditional..traditional isn't the way imo though
 
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Bar the Bull said:
What price should Paco boy be, EC1?
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if my methods showed me I could dismiss horses like PB 9/10 times then he has a 10% of winning..using those methods..just remember.. I'm saying if my methods were that good..he would only have that chance


its all about skill this game isn't it?..at the end of the day..just like any other game..somebody with that skill is going to win

yes ..in reality..to the average punter..he will say..well I can't see that much between them tbh i'll go 30% RVW...32% G...26% PB..but wtf?..is it not better to have good methods that can kick out PB and know in your mind he only has a 10% chance based on your past results?

value is the skill of the player..its not some general thing about being right every now and then..value is about knowing how to reduce a field effectively.not umming and arring..its about being decisive and being right a lot...1% here and 2% there isn't it imo
 
I am talking generally here..not just about this race..its the talk of value that i'm questioning

lets look at one persons value..based on what they know

a person with no knowledge of horse racing..looks at a race with 10 runners in..and says..every horse has a 9/1 chance based on my knowledge

so i'll back every horse above 9/1 and I'm a value bettor...in my mind
 
So to summarise - Unless you can cofidently rule out Paco Bay there is currently no value in the Queen Anne market.
 
No. I've already explained this:

Euronymous said:
They have the prices the wrong way around because PB's win was on a saturday on CH4. If Goldikova's race had had the same coverage she'd be 6/4 for this. And rightly so.
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It's not a case of ruling Paco Boy out, it's that his price is incorrect.
 
theres no value ..to you...if you can't confidentally rule out front market horses in any race..not just this one

but to someone else there may be lots of value here

but there is no such thing as "no value" in general..its down to the individual to obtain..his value
 
a person with no knowledge of horse racing..looks at a race with 10 runners in..and says..every horse has a 9/1 chance based on my knowledge

so i'll back every horse above 9/1 and I'm a value bettor...in my mind
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An important point.
 
I know which horse i would like to see win. In the somewhat cold balance sheet obsessed world of flat racing, there are too few decent stories. A £30000 buy who makes steady progress through the ranks to become the best miler in europe (and trained by a long standing and popular trainer) is a story

I wonder if some of those claiming that the market is all wrong are really steaming in at the moment?

Which ever way you look at RVW , hes coming off the back of one bad and one so so run, with a fair absense to boot. There is always that 3 to 4 risk too and I think hes better over 10f myself (despite last years superb goodwood run)
 
I decided to lay KS and Denman on the Gold Cup based on how short the combi was 6 weeks before the race.

If 3 horses can take up 97% of the market a month before the race I would lay all 3.

Betfair is blocked in work; what is the combined odds of the big 3 to lay on the machine?
 
Bar - Betfair lay prices at the time of the latest market suspension (for forfeit stage)

Paco Boy 3.25
Goldikova 3.85
Rip Van Winkle 4.5

So thats about 79% of the market.

The back prices for the three (3.2, 3.7, 3.9) add up to 84%.

Liquidity is still tiny, though, only £7k matched.
 
Bar the Bull said:
If 3 horses can take up 97% of the market a month before the race I would lay all 3.
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Even though I didn't fancy him at all it has to be said that Imperial Commander and even Cooldine for that matter had a helluva more going for them leading up to the Gold Cup than the likes of Ouqba, Dream Eater and Zacinto have in the Queen Anne. First rule of laying horse(s) for me has to be having credible animals on your side.
 
Let me guess. He ran over 7f, which uses the second winning post, and they'd forgotten to switch the timing beam from the previous race?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Let me guess. He ran over 7f, which uses the second winning post, and they'd forgotten to switch the timing beam from the previous race?
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:lol: I've not even started on my ratings for French racing for this year yet. I'd need to take a 2 month sabbatical to get started.
 
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