The Road to Foundry winning the St Leger

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SlimChance said:
Can someone please post the summary as I can't open the link.
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Apologies for formatting. Version appears in today's RPW.

Eye Of The Storm and Excess Knowledge are the selections with regard to stamina aptitude

Storm and Knowledge have stamina aptitude


THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that require a test of stamina. It is particularly useful when there is scant form at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unexposed. Indeed, there are few, if any, races in which the Dosage gives us more of an edge than the St Leger.

The race is no respecter of class and quality thoroughbreds that have been successful at shorter trips, including Derby and Oaks winners, have been found wanting in this, including Camelot last season when falling short of the elusive Triple Crown. Perhaps partly because the race can embarrass many of the best, connections of good horses have been prone to turning their backs on it.

Winning criteria
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 19 winners of the race is 1.08 (a little lower than the average for the Derby) with the ‘right types’ having a DI below 1 (the lower the DI the more stamina aptitude). Of these past winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy the requirement of a DI of about 1 or lower – they comprise: Encke (DI 1.05), Masked Marvel (0.68), Mastery (1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73).

The table shows the 14 remaining in this season’s final classic. As usual, it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.

2013 St Leger contenders
Horse Sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Excess Knowledge Monsun/Dansili 1-1-13-11-0 = 26 0.49 -0.31
Libertarian New Approach/Darshaan 1-1-7-3-2 = 14 0.65 -0.29
Feel Like Dancing Galileo/Darshaan 3-0-10-5-2 = 20 0.67 -0.15
Eye Of The Storm Galileo/Shirley Heights 4-1-15-6-4 = 30 0.71 -0.17
Galileo Rock Galileo/Groom Dancer 5-0-11-4-4 = 24 0.78 -0.08
Cap O’Rushes New Approach/Shirley Heights 5-1-14-4-4 = 28 0.87 -0.04
Talent New Approach/Peintre Celebre 3-0-13-4-0 = 20 0.90 0.10
Leading Light Montjeu/Gone West 6-6-25-13-0 = 50 0.96 0.10
Foundry Galileo/Dixieland Band 5-0-12-5-0 = 22 1.00 0.23
Ralston Road Dylan Thomas/Galileo 4-2-12-2-0 = 20 1.50 0.40
Havana Beat Teofilo/Desert Prince 1-2-5-2-0 = 10 1.22 0.20
Great Hall Halling/Machiavellian 7-0-6-4-1 = 18 1.25 0.44
Secret Number Raven’s Pass/Alleged 5-4-10-0-1 = 20 2.33 0.60
London Bridge Arch/Indian Ridge 1-11-13-1-0 = 26 2.47 0.46

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.


While the David Wachman-trained Galileo Rock hasn’t won a race this season he has been placed in the Derby and its Irish equivalent. The Galileo colt is out of a Groom Dancer mare and should have no problem with the St Leger trip, with eight points in the stamina wing of his profile and a negative centre of distribution (CD). In the absence of Ruler Of The World and Trading Leather he carries the standard for classic middle-distance form to the race.

John Gosden’s Excess Knowledge, who heads our table for stamina aptitude, has been asked to run at inadequate trips to date and just failed to catch Cap O’Rushes in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. The son of German stallion Monsun will relish stepping up to this. Cap O’Rushes could finish only sixth of seven in the Great Voltigeur and may have been unsuited by the fast going at York. By Derby hero New Approach out of a Shirley Heights mare he also ought to stay.

Libertarian was a good winner of the Dante when beating Trading Leather and finished runner-up in the Derby, but was very disappointing at the Curragh when struggling a long way out. Another by New Approach (himself a son of Galileo) with strong dam side stamina influences through the Darshaan-Shirley Heights line. Only Excess Knowledge heads him in our stamina aptitude table.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Queen’s Vase winner Leading Light is unbeaten this season. The Montjeu colt, out of a Gone West mare (coincidently the two latest stallions to be handed chef-de-race status, see http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/montjeu.htm and http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/gone_west.htm), will have no trouble at this trip, with no fewer than 13 points in the stamina wing of his profile.

Leading Light’s stablemate Foundry was an eye-catching runner-up on only his second racecourse appearance to Telescope in the Great Voltigeur, with Godolphin’s Secret Number half-a-length away in third in what appeared to be a strong renewal. The York race is a pretty good trial for the St Leger. Reference Point succeeded in landing the double in 1987 and since then four others have followed suit – Bob’s Return, Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno – while another seven – Snurge, Mutafaweq, Silver Patriarch, Bollin Eric, Brian Boru, Mastery and Encke – were no worse than fourth in the Voltigeur before following up in the final classic.

Foundry was touted for the Derby early this season and has an ideal Dosage profile for that race. Despite notable failures, Derby types can also step up to effect in this, with many past winners and placed horses having a DI of about 1. However, the ideal DI for this race would be below 1, given a suitable representation from this category, which is certainly the case in this year’s race.

Eye Of The Storm, another from Ballydoyle, hadn’t been seen out since April when splitting Sugar Boy and Galileo Rock in the Sandown Classic trial, until finishing runner-up in a Listed race against older horses on Monday at Galway. He is bred for stamina and is one of several in the race that has Shirley Heights as a prepotent stamina influence on the dam side. The colt is unexposed and has been tried at inadequate distances to date. Unfortunately the St Leger is likely to come too soon for him, but the colt would hold strong chances if lining up.

Feel Like Dancing won his most recent race at Newmarket for trainer John Gosden and owner/breeder Lady Bamford. The colt is bred on the same Galileo/Darshaan cross as Telescope, out of different mares, he features prominently in our table and will not fail through lack of stamina.

The Brian Meehan-trained Great Hall won last time out at Haydock over 14 furlongs in handicap company. By Halling out of a Machiavellian mare, he is not without chances, but others make more appeal in this.

The Ralph Beckett-trained Talent is the only filly that could still make the line up. We marked her out earlier in the season as a decent prospect at a mile-and-a-half. She was staying on strongly when taking the Oaks and should give herself chances of getting the trip here with a typical DI for this race, if putting her Irish Oaks flop behind her. She would become the first Oaks winner to beat the colts in the St Leger since User Friendly in 1992.
Speed/stamina balance
The average DI for the past 19 winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1.

Dosage of previous St Leger winners

Year Horse DI CD
2012 Encke 1.05 0.20
2011 Masked Marvel 0.68 -0.13
2010 Arctic Cosmos 1.77 0.50
2009 Mastery 1.00 0.00
2008 Conduit 0.76 -0.09
2007 Lucarno 1.34 0.26
2006 Sixties Icon 1.00 0.23
2005 Scorpion 1.00 0.19
2004 Rule Of Law 2.11 0.17
2003 Brian Boru 1.05 0.18
2002 Bollin Eric 1.00 0.14
2001 Milan 0.77 -0.05
2000 Millenary 0.83 0.02
1999 Mutafaweq 1.07 0.14
1998 Nedawi 0.92 0.09
1997 Silver Patriarch 1.00 0.03
1996 Shantou 1.67 0.38
1995 Classic Cliché 0.83 0.00
1994 Moonax 0.73 -0.04
____
Average Dosage index = 1.08

Shortlist
With regard to stamina suitability those in the top half of our table are best placed: Excess Knowledge (DI 0.49), Libertarian (0.65), Feel Like Dancing (0.67), Eye Of The Storm (0.71), Galileo Rock (0.78), Cap O’Rushes (0.87), Talent (0.90), Leading Light (0.96), and Foundry (1.0).

Conclusion
Of these, Foundry probably has the most scope for improvement having raced just twice, but his stablemate Eye Of The Storm is also unexposed and is bred for a test of stamina, while the Aidan O’Brien-trained Leading Light has done nothing wrong and indeed everything right in landing the Queen’s Vase and remaining undefeated this season. All three are similarly rated and the one who is improving most at this stage of the season will win the day from the Ballydoyle trio. Excess Knowledge has been run at inadequate trips and is fully entitled to make his presence felt here, as is Galileo Rock, while the filly Talent should not be dismissed. With not much to choose between them otherwise we look to the top of our stamina aptitude table. In the absence of Eye Of The Storm Excess Knowledge is taken to see off a strong Ballydoyle challenge, with Galileo Rock and Talent the next best.

Verdict:
1) Eye Of The Storm/Excess Knowledge
2) Foundry/Leading Light
3) Galileo Rock


More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.
 
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yeah cheers.... you have made me quite warm on Eye Of The Storm if declared. See what happens.
 
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Decs:

Cap O'Rushes Mickael Barzalona
Excess Knowledge James Doyle
Foundry (IRE) Ryan Moore
Galileo Rock (IRE) W. M. Lordan
Great Hall Kieren Fallon
Havana Beat (IRE) Liam Keniry
Leading Light (IRE) (Sheepskin C/P) Joseph O'Brien
Libertarian (Sheepskin C/P) William Buick
Ralston Road (IRE) Tadhg O'Shea
Secret Number Silvestre De Sousa
Talent Jim Crowley
 
Gamla Stan said:
Decs:

Cap O'Rushes Mickael Barzalona
Excess Knowledge James Doyle
Foundry (IRE) Ryan Moore
Galileo Rock (IRE) W. M. Lordan
Great Hall Kieren Fallon
Havana Beat (IRE) Liam Keniry
Leading Light (IRE) (Sheepskin C/P) Joseph O'Brien
Libertarian (Sheepskin C/P) William Buick
Ralston Road (IRE) Tadhg O'Shea
Secret Number Silvestre De Sousa
Talent Jim Crowley
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until i saw "decs" at the top i thought they were Steve's selections;)

only kiddin Steve;)
 
SlimChance said:
Disappointing the stable jockey has deserted me...
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Has he though....?

With Moore no longer getting the plum rides at Stoutes with Doyle on them and Joseph surely only having 1-2 years left max, I'm not sure that Joseph is the number one now. I reckon we'll see Moore on in big races whenever Stoute doesn't have one in there until he parts from Stoute.

I'd rather have Moore on anyway!
 
On speed ratings, Leading Light's time at Royal Ascot was the same as Al Kazeems, I think this horse will win St Leger but missed the price, he could even had been Aidan's Derby horse and may be worth backing him for the Arc.

Serious horse, we've all waited since june for him to run
 
EC1 said:
until i saw "decs" at the top i thought they were Steve's selections;)

only kiddin Steve;)
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Yes sorry to be imprecise. It's difficult to second-guess what Ballydoyle are up to (even though I had been talking to the yard this week). They wanted to give him every chance of making the line up but have decided against it.

EOTS was a strong fancy of mine, but the doubts about him taking part necessitated hedging my bets.
 
SteveM said:
(even though I had been talking to the yard this week).
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Can I suggest a competition on the scripting of the conversation?

I'll suggest the following options:

A
SMiller (SM): Hello, this is Steve Miller, dosage expert and occasional columnist for the Weekender..
Ballydoyle (BD): Feck off, we're busy!
-------

B
SM: Hello, this is Steve Miller, dosage expert and occasional columnist for the Weekender.. Can I ask if Eye Of The Storm (EOTS) runs in the St Leger?
BD: At this stage we can't say.
SM: It's just that I have a deadline for the paper and I fancy EOTS more than Desert Orchid fancies a threesome with Carol Kirkwood and Rachel Riley...
BD: He runs at Galway this afternoon.
SM: In preparation for Saturday?
BD: He runs at Galway this afternoon.
SM: And if he wins easily?
BD: He runs at Galway this afternoon.
---

Any others?
 
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A script about Aidan without a "listen" is not a script worth the e-data it was typed on.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Can I suggest a competition on the scripting of the conversation?

I'll suggest the following options:

A
SMiller (SM): Hello, this is Steve Miller, dosage expert and occasional columnist for the Weekender..
Ballydoyle (BD): Feck off, we're busy!
-------

B
SM: Hello, this is Steve Miller, dosage expert and occasional columnist for the Weekender.. Can I ask if Eye Of The Storm (EOTS) runs in the St Leger?
BD: At this stage we can't say.
SM: It's just that I have a deadline for the paper and I fancy EOTS more than Desert Orchid fancies a threesome with Carol Kirkwood and Rachel Riley...
BD: He runs at Galway this afternoon.
SM: In preparation for Saturday?
BD: He runs at Galway this afternoon.
SM: And if he wins easily?
BD: He runs at Galway this afternoon.
---

Any others?
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:lol: ...not far off. Although they did confirm that you had no chance whatsoever.:p
 
Forget this at the prices stuff, this really is all about Excess Knowledge. Everything needs to improve to win a typical Leger, based on what they've shown so far, I think he remains with by far the most scope to progress for this test.

Galileo Rock will obviously stay this kind of trip on pedigree, but having shown what he has in the Derby and Irish equivalent, I'm not convinced he has sufficient improvement in him.
 
davidjohnson said:
Forget this at the prices stuff, this really is all about Excess Knowledge. Everything needs to improve to win a typical Leger, based on what they've shown so far, I think he remains with by far the most scope to progress for this test.

Galileo Rock will obviously stay this kind of trip on pedigree, but having shown what he has in the Derby and Irish equivalent, I'm not convinced he has sufficient improvement in him.
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Yes Excess Knowledge has to be the default setting.
 
eye of the storm & feel like dancing withdrawn

does this effect your dosage calculations steve or should we back anything else?

@ foundry backers, are you not worried about hold up horses stepping up in trip? ladbrokes have him as outsider of the two.
 
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