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The Road to Foundry winning the St Leger

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
  • Start date Start date
FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
eye of the storm & feel like dancing withdrawn

does this effect your dosage calculations steve or should we back anything else?
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Yes... as mentioned earlier there are three defections leaving 11 (The expectation of which is why I had to hedge my bets in the article).

No it doesn't affect the Dosage calculations. Yes you should back something else. ;) As David suggests Excess Knowledge looks the right stuff and he is top of the table for stamina aptitude.
 
Trainer David Wachman has announced that Ladbrokes St Leger second favourite Galileo Rock "will only run if the ground is suitable".
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Trainer David Wachman has announced that Ladbrokes St Leger second favourite Galileo Rock "will only run if the ground is suitable".
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Won a Maiden by 7 lengths on soft.

Don't quite get the quote, is he expecting fast ground? or is he saying he doesn't want soft?

What
 
RP say

Wachman added that Galileo Rock prefers a sound surface. "Given his position in the betting we thought it was only fair to let people know."

Really helpful statement isn' it ? :confused:
 
Greg Wood on Twitter

David Wachman says he wants "very much" to run Galileo Rock in StLeger on Sat, but will declare for Irish St Leger too & decide Fri evening
 
EC1 said:
the surface a horse wins a maiden on doesn't mean much tbh in regard to future preferences
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I guess that is true like but plenty of 2yos are looked after on ground that's not ideal, even if trainer has 10-15% doubt about ground they are taken out.

This horse on debut won so well + the pedigree showing preference for soft that you'd imagine he would favour it.

with the ammunition Wachman has had, he hasn't done much that's why I doubt his reasoning that galileo rock needs ground better than good, you can't say that after his maiden win neither his pedigree.
 
Is there some smoke and mirrors here. Wachman has been reluctant to publicly target him at the Leger, never actually saying it was a target since the Irish Derby. I suspect he is trying to prevent the horse being pigeon-holed as a plodder by suggesting he wants quicker ground.

Surprised if he doesn't run, and surprised if going is any worse than good to soft.
 
They're supposed to get another bucket load tonight but the track drains very very well since they've redone it and I don't see why anyone should pull out because it's Good to Soft.
 
davidjohnson said:
Is there some smoke and mirrors here. Wachman has been reluctant to publicly target him at the Leger, never actually saying it was a target since the Irish Derby. I suspect he is trying to prevent the horse being pigeon-holed as a plodder by suggesting he wants quicker ground
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This is almost certainly the case.
 
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It's been raining for the past 3 hours, and heading for proper soft ground.
I'd say he's odds-on to be pulled..
 
davidjohnson said:
Is there some smoke and mirrors here. Wachman has been reluctant to publicly target him at the Leger.
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Hi, I'm David Wachman, my horse finished second when written off by many shrewdies in favour of Ruler Of The World and some other yoke I can't remember in the Irish Derby, I'm declaring my horse to the Sporting Life as a good thing for the Leger today, I mean who could ignore Alex Hammond? :D

IMO if he doesn't run, it is because the trainer doesn't think he'll be good enough to win. Therefore, drawing a natural conclusion, he will be doing many punters a favour...

Wish I could say the same for about most of half of all of the English contingent of trainers these days. :)

You know the type...pull a 20/1 shot out of an 8 runner handicap to please your master etc. :)
 
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Galileo Rock runs.... Impressive performance for Grecian Bride to have two runners in the same group one.

Walked the course this morning and is not as soft as I was expecting apart from a patchy bit at the three. It's handling the rain well but it is still raining....l
 
I thought Leading Light had a good chance the 6/1 currently available with Betfred, Tote and Bet365 seems a decent price as a saver. I have backed Talent at a double figure price and there's been a lot of support for her today, Ladbrokes ducked her at 6/1 when others were as big as 12/1. I was in the minority in liking Libertarian's Dante performance and he ran well as I'd hoped in the Derby, staying on so strongly that he St Leger was an obvious thought, my early idea of the winner. The one I've taken as my main selection for the race is Secret Number, ran a good race when hampered behind Cap O Rushes and Excess Knowledge in a race EK should have won.
 
I am absolutely not a trends man but the record of Queen's Vase winners in the Leger puts me off Leading Light today. The best of them was Le Moss in 1978 when he was second to Julio Mariner and he ran just like a stayer, outpaced early in the straight then staying on strongly. Leading Light wouldn't be in his league but, then again, he probably wouldn't have to be. It would also concern me that his prep hasn't gone according to plan. He was due to run in the Voltigeur but couldn't because of a "little hold-up".
 
This year, it looks like the only one that can be ruled out on dosage figures is Secret Number while Great Hall, Havana Beat and Ralston Road have unconvincing dosage figures and little chance on form.

My form rating for Leading Light (110) was gained at 2m so stamina is not an issue but he’ll need to improve for the step back in trip to make the frame here. I'm not sure he can find that much.

I’m on Foundry at 14/1 NRNB so might lay that off and use the money to punt something else. That’s not to say I don’t think he can win. Indeed, I think he has probably the most potential of all the runners. On the other hand, that potential may be compromised by just borderline stamina on dosage figures. I couldn't back him at current odds.

Cap O’Rushes should stay but shouldn’t beat the likes of Galileo Rock on Epsom and Curragh Derby lines. Excess Knowledge has the strongest stamina potential in the field and is trained by the Leger maestro who won with not-so-obvious-on-form types in Masked Marvel and Arctic Cosmos in the last three years. However, at 7/2 [at the time of writing] he appears to head the market on his trainer’s record rather than his own. He’s sure to improve a fair bit for the step up in trip but so are at least two of the three above him on my ratings. Talent (12/1) was a surprise winner of the Oaks and may be flattered by getting the run of the race. I can’t have her for any better than a place.

Libertarian (8/1) ran poorly in the Irish Derby but overhauled Galileo Rock (5/1) late on at Epsom to grab the runner-up spot. Both look certain to improve for the trip and I reckon the Godolphin buy has more speed than the Wachman rep. Neither of these two has been messing about in trials since the Curragh and at the odds Libertarian is a proper bet.

It’s quite often the case that not many have figures in excess of 120 going into the race but it’s also quite rare for the winner to emerge with a rating below it. Fan of the race or not, it is a proper G1 for stayers. Libertarian strikes as the most likely to find most improvement on form to date.
 
You have to wonder why Barzalona isn't riding him though? I like Libertarian but couldn't have cap o rushes but then I thought the same about Encke last year.

If Talent settles she is a danger to all. Ground is right for her.
 


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