The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
9,534
Location
Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
Betting is:

Camelot 3/1
Nephrite 10/1
Harbour Watch 12/1
Power, Born to Sea 14/1
Top Offer 16/1
French Fifteen, Sofast, Takar 20/1
Parish Hall, Akeed Mofeed 22/1
25 to 1 bar

I think Nephrite will win this race, but I am a bit concerned that he won't run in the race. Looking back at my stats running in a race is the single most important factor to consider when trying to find a Guineas winner. 10 out of the last 10 Guineas have fallen to a horse who has entered the race. This is almost as important than being drawn in Trap 2 in a juvenile 5f handicap at Chester.

Born to Sea probably can't win it. Anybody fancy setting the ball rolling on a forum ante-post plunge?
 
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I’ve been looking at the race and will post in detail on it nearer the time. My first choice was Dabirsim but he won’t run being trained instead for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains at Longchamp rather than take his chance at Newmarket. A good spread of strong prepotent speed and stamina influences give him excellent chances at the trip wherever he goes.

The one I fancy of those still possible is Harbour Watch, convincing winner of his three starts as a two-year-old, culminating in the Richmond Stakes over 6 furlongs at Goodwood. Although Richmond Stakes winners do not represent obvious ammunition for the Guineas and Harbour Watch looks to have inherited plenty of speed from his sire Acclamation, his damsire Woodman should ensure he will get a mile.

However, your stat of them actually lining up is an impressive one.:) He’d be a threat to anything if the hind leg injury sustained at the end of last season does not hold up his preparation.

The 3s on Camelot should probably be taken. He'll go very short if HW comes out as well, even though he's more of a middle-distance type.
 
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Steve
I expect this year to be more than 20 3yo rated higher than Dabirsim in the mile division at the end of the year.
 
sunybay said:
I expect this year to be more than 20 3yo rated higher than Dabirsim in the mile division at the end of the year.
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I'd doubt that, but for the spring Classics you need to be looking at horses ready to run at the start of the season rather than the end of the year.
 
very weak form from Dabirsim
I think Obrien has a dozen (Camelot, Nephrite,Power.......) better than him and many other stables with horses like
Akeed Mofeed or Bron To Sea of Oxx
Harbour Watch , looked to class but injured or Bronterre form Hannon stable
Paris Hall of Bolger

and some others with a much better look than Dabirsim, his GC win is the worst edition of that race I can remember, the pedigree is nothing special either.
 
I'm already on Nephrite for £3750 win after my visit to Ireland.

And also Apollo £2100 win at 33-1 for The Derby.
 
Some say it doesn't hold the same prestige it used to. I wouldn't be backing Camelot at 3/1. If he comes to himself on his own then fair enough but I can't see AOB pushing the horse to run in it. It's avery long season and better middle distance races to be winning
 
Top Offer cut to 8's. Like Bully I think Nephrite will win this although I like Abtaal at an e/w price.
 
That time of year Aragorn - someone has seen a Maiden winner gallop and it looks like it's trained on ie. could be rated 100+ this season so they'll back it for the Guineas.

Martin
 
Apparently his trainer has said he hasn't done any impressive work on twitter. Might be a tipping line cashing in post Cheltenham when everyone who's won there wants something else to back.
 
Possibly Aragorn - would always expect something to shorten at this time of year as I'd be fairly certain there are some horses near the head of the market that don't deserve to be there (ie. haven't trained on) but the proof of how good he is/could be will be when the trial entries come out.

Martin
 
Aragorn said:
Apparently his trainer has said he hasn't done any impressive work on twitter. Might be a tipping line cashing in post Cheltenham when everyone who's won there wants something else to back.
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I'm not having that. Tipping lines will have got cleaned like most punters at Cheltenham.
 
Nephrite will run an absolute stormer in 2000 Guineas.

What you want to be on though is BRONTERRE for Richard Hannon, forget Harbour Watch this horse is the one they expect to be staying on strongly at the finish - pure power & athletism, potentially an exceptional 3yo.

25/1 I'm on.
 
Irish Stamp said:
That time of year Aragorn - someone has seen a Maiden winner gallop and it looks like it's trained on ie. could be rated 100+ this season so they'll back it for the Guineas.

Martin
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That's a fair point. This time last year World Domination had been punted for the Derby and Stoute's filly was punted for the Guineas & Oaks after a positive report.
 
What horse is everyone going for?

Pedigree angle:
Clock angle:
Form angle:
Trainer angle:
Superstition angle:
"Hunch" angle:
 
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SlimChance said:
I'm not having that. Tipping lines will have got cleaned like most punters at Cheltenham.
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Hard week?!

According to the trainer he hasn't done any decent work so if its not that or a tipping line it could be bookies PR departments trying to drum up some interest in the ante post markets on the flat?! Either way I don't fancy him and given his relative inexperience i'd want to see him run before the Guineas before backing him.
 
Marble said:
Most Improved for me as no one fancies him!
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Brian Meehan couldn't train ivy up a wall.

Serious amount of ammunition gone through his yard in the past 5 years and has destroyed everything in his path.
 
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