The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

Grasshopper said:
i give up.



It's self-evident that any horse in a race has 'a chance' - it doesn't need pointing out, Steve. But we convert those 'chances' into probabilities/odds, don't we? A price of 4/5 is not reflective of infallability, is it?

I look forward to seeing your list of horses who are;

A) better than Hurricane Fly
B) have faced better Champion Hurdle fields than this, and
C) were turned over at odds on
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You see the whole point of what I'm saying is he isn't an authentic odds-on shot, so we don't have to look for true odds-on shots that have got turned over.
 
looks like the it will be frozen off at the weekend, which is disappointing for further clues and sets them back in trying to squeeze something in ahead of the Festival.
 
Grasshopper very soon

stock-photo-moodie-character-yelling-frantically-at-a-brick-wall-literally-talking-to-a-brick-wall-63942658.jpg
 
Why is he not an authentic odd-on shot though Steve. There is no known form out there at the moment that suggests anything else in the field will win the race.
 
OTB said:
Why is he not an authentic odd-on shot though Steve. There is no known form out there at the moment that suggests anything else in the field will win the race.
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Haven't we gone over this? For all of the reasons mentioned. Binocular's best two runs are as good as HF's best two runs (this is known form) and some of the others may have more scope for improvement. DO for example had Grandouet already very close to HF (between 1 and 4lb close), Zarkandar, for example, is clearly on the upgrade and if some of those good horses were switched to this (surprises occur every year) it's looking a race. HF is certainly not an odds-on shot as things stand and I very much doubt he should be on the day.

Consider for example how much of a better chance Long Run has of winning the Gold Cup than HF has the Champion Hurdle. Knock out Kauto and he's miles clear on ratings. Ask yourself whether you'd rather be on LR at odds against or HF at odds-on.
 
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granger said:
Hurricane Clearly

Are you numb to the fact that he has won 11 grade ones in a sequence now
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So you would "clearly" favour HF at odds-on, than LR at odds against? Can't do much for you in that case.

HF does have the best chance in the Champion Hurdle, as I've said, but is also certainly worth taking on... He's good at beating Solwhit, I'll give you that.

(apart from when Solwhit beat him of course, breaking that sequence you were talking about). ;)
 
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SteveM said:
Consider for example how much of a better chance Long Run has of winning the Gold Cup than HF has the Champion Hurdle. Knock out Kauto and he's miles clear on ratings. Ask yourself whether you'd rather be on LR at odds against or HF at odds-on.
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You have said it here.

If you knock out Kauto, then Long Run is miles clear on ratings.

If you knock out nothing, then Hurricane Fly is miles clear on ratings.

There is also the fact that Long Run is a poor jumper and will have an amateur rider on his back to consider. Hurricane Fly is a very good jumper and will have Ruby Walsh on his back.

Hurricane Fly's Grade 1 record in the UK (and Ire) is 11 starts, 10 wins and one 3rd. A 91% win rate.

Long Run's Grade 1 record in the UK is 6 starts, 3 wins, one 2nd and two 3rds. A 50% win rate.

I do think you are being overly hard on him Steve. There is quite obviously a chance that he will be beaten but everything else in the field has a mountain to climb to do it if he is on song on the big day.
 
SteveM said:
So you would "clearly" favour HF at odds-on, than LR at odds against? Can't do much for you in that case.

HF does have the best chance in the Champion Hurdle, as I've said, but is also certainly worth taking on... He's good at beating Solwhit, I'll give you that.

(apart from when Solwhit beat him of course, breaking that sequence you were talking about). ;)
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Go tell it to Hamm and all the rest who thought HF was anchored by Solwhit last season.

Only a complete muppet would still be trotting out this chestnut.
 
Steve you have a blind spot for Hurricane. If you think LR is a better fav than HF your are "awf yer heid". :D
 
You can't use Grandouet and Zarkandar in an argument against HF then forget that Unaccompanied, who split the two and won a Grade 1 this year, got smashed out of sight by HF. Admittedly on heavy ground but it all comes alike to the champ. The juvenile form is clearly strong but they all need to improve 15-20lbs from last year to get within 3 lengths of him and I haven't seen anything to suggest they will.

In effect you are betting that a 5yo, who have a shocking record anyway (Katchit's CH was so bad i'm almost inclined to ignore it!), are going to improve enough over a summer to be, in effect, as good as Istabraq all things being equal.

That bet would be about 50/1...
 
Zenyatta said:
You have said it here.

If you knock out Kauto, then Long Run is miles clear on ratings.

If you knock out nothing, then Hurricane Fly is miles clear on ratings
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HR is not miles clear on ratings though. Kauto aside, Long Run is.
 
Grasshopper said:
Go tell it to Hamm and all the rest who thought HF was anchored by Solwhit last season.

Only a complete muppet would still be trotting out this chestnut.
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I'm just explaining to Granger why he's won so many Grade 1s. He's the one who brought it up, asking me if I was "numb to the fact that he has won 11 grade ones in a sequence". I was pointing out that Solwhit actually beat him during this supposedly unbroken sequence and that he had only won so many as he only had Solwhit to beat in half of them.
 
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OTB said:
Steve you have a blind spot for Hurricane. If you think LR is a better fav than HF your are "awf yer heid". :D
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Maybe I am too hard on him, as I've said. But he's no value at odds on, those that think he is just don't get out enough. LR is about the right price at odds against, with a surer chance of winning in my book.
 
Bobbyjo said:
Steve, I'm really worried for you
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Joking aside, what's wrong with pointing out that HF is a worthy favourite but shouldn't be odds-on. Like I've said I've been to too many Festivals where better horses than this have lost in less competitive fields.
 
I’ve topped up to the gunnels today on Oscar Whisky and Peddler’s Cross NRNB at 10s and 14s... even if Ladbrokes are just holding the money until March.
 
It's the Solwhit thing. We went over this last year at length. It all got a bit undignified really. It sort of descended into a Solwhit v Starluck [I'm not even going into this again!!]. In the last few days, you've brought up Starluck...and now Solwhit....it's like 2011 never happened. Thousand Stars was third behind HF and Solwhit in a number of those races, and ran 4th in the Champ Hurdle so let's not be disingenuous.

No problem with taking on an odds on favourite - but I think it's saying something like...

"Binocular's best two runs are as good as HF's best two runs (this is known form) and some of the others may have more scope for improvement."

Is what people have a problem with. The rating of Binocular's two best runs are highly debatable, and rating Grandouet within 1lb to 4lb of Hurricane Fly is possibly insane. Grandouet proved his credentials by taking 4lbs off an overraced Overturn at Cheltenham and beating him by four lengths. Overturn wouldn't beat Thousand Stars around Cheltenham.
 
SteveM said:
I’ve topped up to the gunnels today on Oscar Whisky and Peddler’s Cross NRNB at 10s and 14s... even if Ladbrokes are just holding the money until March.
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I have done the latter. An outstanding price considering that he beat the former convincingly last year and I could only see him running in this if something happened to Hurricane Fly. How he is a 14/1 shot I don't know.

That said, I would rather be collecting my stake back in March to watch him win the Arkle. :whistle:
 
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