Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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The Road to the 2012 King George
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
- Start date
Desert Orchid
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So you did think you might not win? Don't get me wrong. I'm pleased for you as always when you win but I just wonder if your opinion of LR would have as bullish as beforehand had he been on the wrong outcome of the photo.
Desert Orchid
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1. Long Run (172) [171/178]
2. Captain Chris (162) [169+]
3. Grands Crus (157) [166++]
4. Champion Court (155) [155o]
nk, 14, 2.5
The round brackets are ORs, the square ones my ratings going into the race.
Normally at three miles, a length is about 0.75lbs; in heavy I make it 0.5lbs. If Champion Court has run to his OR of 155 then Grands Crus has run to 156 (cf OR 157), Captain Chris 163 and Long Run 163/164+. That doesn't sit right for me. I backed GC in the Mackeson, so I expected it to emerge from the race off something like OR164, which would bring Captain Chris and Long Run up alongside the figures I had for them anyway, with Champion Court the big improver. While I can understand people wishing to push the ratings up a bit, I'd suggest GC appeared not to stay in the ground while ChC weakened noticeably late on. I would be very uncomfortable rating this race any higher but I would say Cue Card travelled like the best horse in the race until his stamina gave out.
If a figure in the low 170s is good enough to win a Gold Cup when the likes of Neptune Collonges and What A Friend can run to that kind of figure and end up well beaten then I think I am entitled to express concerns about the quality of the race.
We need to hope something else emerges between now and March with better figures or else we'll be watching a glorified handicap.
2. Captain Chris (162) [169+]
3. Grands Crus (157) [166++]
4. Champion Court (155) [155o]
nk, 14, 2.5
The round brackets are ORs, the square ones my ratings going into the race.
Normally at three miles, a length is about 0.75lbs; in heavy I make it 0.5lbs. If Champion Court has run to his OR of 155 then Grands Crus has run to 156 (cf OR 157), Captain Chris 163 and Long Run 163/164+. That doesn't sit right for me. I backed GC in the Mackeson, so I expected it to emerge from the race off something like OR164, which would bring Captain Chris and Long Run up alongside the figures I had for them anyway, with Champion Court the big improver. While I can understand people wishing to push the ratings up a bit, I'd suggest GC appeared not to stay in the ground while ChC weakened noticeably late on. I would be very uncomfortable rating this race any higher but I would say Cue Card travelled like the best horse in the race until his stamina gave out.
If a figure in the low 170s is good enough to win a Gold Cup when the likes of Neptune Collonges and What A Friend can run to that kind of figure and end up well beaten then I think I am entitled to express concerns about the quality of the race.
We need to hope something else emerges between now and March with better figures or else we'll be watching a glorified handicap.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
You go to an awful lot of trouble to come to the conclusion this was a poor race by King George standards.
I tend to look at it another way.
The 3rd is probably the most overrated chaser in training, Champion Court is no better than a good handicapper, Cue Card was never traveling and was always on his back foot after a horrendous jump at the first, Nicky Henderson most likely didn't even want to run Riverside Theatre and Barry made sure he never had a hard race when the chips were down, Kauto Stone as I said before the race should have gone to Sedgefield, the Giant Bolster was so out of place on the ground that he had AP looking down thinking there was something wrong with his undercarriage and what on earth Junior was doing there is beyond me.
You could defend the front 2 by saying they finished well ahead of the others. The gamble on Long Run going for home plenty soon enough paid off in the end but if he'd have been going any slower over the last 3 fences he'd have stopped which allowed Captain Chris (matched at 1000 and who hit 300 on the home turn) to grind his way into a challenging position and almost win the race.
The very fact that Dynaste, a mere novice, won the Feltham in a hack canter in a time 3.5 seconds faster than Long Run covered the same course and distance either makes him the next coming or we just witnessed a very poor King George that makes your figures look generous
I tend to look at it another way.
The 3rd is probably the most overrated chaser in training, Champion Court is no better than a good handicapper, Cue Card was never traveling and was always on his back foot after a horrendous jump at the first, Nicky Henderson most likely didn't even want to run Riverside Theatre and Barry made sure he never had a hard race when the chips were down, Kauto Stone as I said before the race should have gone to Sedgefield, the Giant Bolster was so out of place on the ground that he had AP looking down thinking there was something wrong with his undercarriage and what on earth Junior was doing there is beyond me.
You could defend the front 2 by saying they finished well ahead of the others. The gamble on Long Run going for home plenty soon enough paid off in the end but if he'd have been going any slower over the last 3 fences he'd have stopped which allowed Captain Chris (matched at 1000 and who hit 300 on the home turn) to grind his way into a challenging position and almost win the race.
The very fact that Dynaste, a mere novice, won the Feltham in a hack canter in a time 3.5 seconds faster than Long Run covered the same course and distance either makes him the next coming or we just witnessed a very poor King George that makes your figures look generous
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He ran pretty much as I thought he would. Perhaps not to his absolute best but not too far short. LR was going very well during the race and the loss of momentum did not cause me to think he was beaten. So yes, I was certain Long Run would get back at him and quite confident it would be before the line. If the run in had been longer he would have won further and CCh was probably flattered by the actual margin.
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It wasn't that it was a poor race, but it was won by a horse that is about 7-10lb better than this field (with the exception of the runner-up who is obviously improving). Knock out the runner-up and he has destroyed a field in a race that many were calling open.
M
Marble
Guest
I know its a hot looking race this year but Grands Crus has run a decent trial for the Ryanair there has he not???
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Desert Orchid
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Sounds like you agree with me. I didn't need to go to the bother. I knew when I did the figures beforehand that it was going to take a blow-them-away performance by something to raise the standard of the race to what I like to see. After all, they say the best chasers win the KG, the best stayers win the Gold Cup, so you want to to see real class at Kempton on Boxing Day. What we saw were guts and stamina, in much the same way as Desert Orchid's Gold Cup.
I was tempted to mention the times too. Dynaste's race didn't look that fast so the fact he could do the c&d faster in a canter just emphasises how slow the KG was.
Desert Orchid
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They were only calling it open because the evidence was that LR is now running 10lbs short of his best of two years ago and the rest are well short of King George standard. My words before the race were that LR could win it by default. That's what happened. As Tanlic says, the race pretty much fell apart before it got under way.
Long Run stayed, the rest didn't.
All you need to know about the King George in 5.5 words and a comma.
If Long Run ran near his best, we need to include Captain Chris up with Kauto Star and Denman class.
Or alternatively, Long Run didn't run to its best.
All you need to know about the King George in 5.5 words and a comma.
If Long Run ran near his best, we need to include Captain Chris up with Kauto Star and Denman class.
Or alternatively, Long Run didn't run to its best.
EC1
On a break
The very fact that Dynaste, a mere novice, won the Feltham in a hack canter in a time 3.5 seconds faster than Long Run covered the same course and distance either makes him the next coming or we just witnessed a very poor King George that makes your figures look generous
the problem with that Tanlic is that it was raining quite a lot between the races..i was going to compare sectionals of both races but unfortunately thats been spoiled by the weather.
purely on form ratings LR has run a OHR 172...which is fair enough imo
the problem with that Tanlic is that it was raining quite a lot between the races..i was going to compare sectionals of both races but unfortunately thats been spoiled by the weather.
purely on form ratings LR has run a OHR 172...which is fair enough imo
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Desert Orchid
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This looks like a misinterpretation of something I might have said. People who know me, my ratings and thoughts and how I punt know that 90% of my bets are on horses I expect to improve on current form.
When did I put down BW's Hennessy? As I remember it, I was on here within a week extolling the race as one of the strongest renewals. Why not do a bit of work yourself and put up those who have won off higher marks? I'll start you off. Denman won it off an OR 14lbs higher and with 12lbs more on his back. Even in his own race, Bobs Worth comes out of it inferior to Tidal Bay (and I have said I expect BW to improve past him) and Tidal Bay is about on a par with the likes of Neptune Collonges and What A Friend.
Bobs Worth's was a very strong Hennessy but the form doesn't make him a Gold Cup winner. That doesn't mean he can't or won't win the Gold Cup.
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Desert Orchid
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Six words, including one elision (and the comma).
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trackside528
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Alternatively, if you knock out the runner-up could you not also argue that he has destroyed three non-stayers, a no-hoper, and a couple of horses that never went a yard?
For what it's worth, I don't think 8's is bad value for the Gold Cup, but I also don't think yesterday's form is bomb-proof by any means.
All credit to Long Run and his jockey for sticking in there but Captain Chris surely comes out of the race as the best horse. I suspect that had the race been run at the time the Feltham was run he would have held on . If only they could get CCh to go left handed again without jumping all over the place .
Grand Crus ran OK but emptied , Cue Card was far too free and did not stay , Riverside Theatre , Kauto Stone and The Giant Bolster all ran very badly and Champion Court clearly did not stay beyond the home turn .
It makes the race look very shaky as a form guide . The 2010 running was used to suggest that Long Run was the second coming when susbsequent events show that to have been a very unreliable race .
Long Run is a very good consistent staying chaser but vulnerable to better jumpers with more class and I suspect there will be two or three ahead of him at Cheltenham .
Grand Crus ran OK but emptied , Cue Card was far too free and did not stay , Riverside Theatre , Kauto Stone and The Giant Bolster all ran very badly and Champion Court clearly did not stay beyond the home turn .
It makes the race look very shaky as a form guide . The 2010 running was used to suggest that Long Run was the second coming when susbsequent events show that to have been a very unreliable race .
Long Run is a very good consistent staying chaser but vulnerable to better jumpers with more class and I suspect there will be two or three ahead of him at Cheltenham .
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I didn't have a bet in the race but my brother was sitting beside me with quite a considerable bet on Long Run. The way we saw it before the race, nothing else was guaranteed to go on the ground and stay the trip. He's the price he was because of the SWC factor.
Now you know what you are getting when you back SWC and we were impressed that he finally kicked on with Long Run, something he seems to have been afraid to do before. But he there's no point kicking on if you don't have the confidence to go for jumps. Ruby kicked on with Kauto and would make him jump. I know LR does not appear to be the greatest jumper but I do wonder how a professional would do with him. SWC seems to sit way back when jumping a fence. It seems he's more concerned about making sure he doesn't fall off if the horse clouts it. All the way up the straight I did wonder how far he'd be in front if you switched jocks. It will never happen, but would like to see any of the top jocks given three rides on him to see if they could improve his jumping.
but well done to them both, they just about pulled it off. Even SWC didn't seem too happy after the race. I wonder did he feel the horse got him out of it.
Now you know what you are getting when you back SWC and we were impressed that he finally kicked on with Long Run, something he seems to have been afraid to do before. But he there's no point kicking on if you don't have the confidence to go for jumps. Ruby kicked on with Kauto and would make him jump. I know LR does not appear to be the greatest jumper but I do wonder how a professional would do with him. SWC seems to sit way back when jumping a fence. It seems he's more concerned about making sure he doesn't fall off if the horse clouts it. All the way up the straight I did wonder how far he'd be in front if you switched jocks. It will never happen, but would like to see any of the top jocks given three rides on him to see if they could improve his jumping.
but well done to them both, they just about pulled it off. Even SWC didn't seem too happy after the race. I wonder did he feel the horse got him out of it.
You might as well say that any horse wins a championship race by default in that case. Perhaps Frankel won his races by default? Long Run has won on merit against all that have turned up to face him in this and remains the best horse in training at the trip... if that's "by default" then good luck to him.
I'm not saying it's bomb proof, but he remains the highest rated horse in training at the trip and seems capable of running to about that rating. He has the best chance of winning the Gold Cup and 8/1 is not the shortest price. Therefore 8/1 must be half decent value. LR should probably be backed down to about 4/1 and perhaps shorter on the day depending who oppose.
It's the mark of a good horse that they can win championship races without running to their best. I reckon he's run about half a stone short of his best which is an improvement on his reappearance. I can see him running better again in the Denman and in the Gold Cup.
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No its not. Nonsense. Its not like Man Utd scrapping out draws when they should lose.
The horse runs to its level. If there is a horse better than it in the race, it doesnt win. Would have fancied those ahead of him in the market to have beaten him - largely because Long Run isnt replicating the form that had him marked as a superstar.
Its reminiscent of Master Minded being good enough to win races but never getting back near the level of his best runs.
This is a very simplistic view of what racehorses are about. They set out to win races in a given set of conditions at a particular stage of the season. Those who insisted that Long Run is in decline ought to see now that this is incorrect. There is no doubt in my mind that he is quite a bit better than the runner up, who is nevertheless decent and has run to his highest rating in this. Horses are given a programme to peak at the right time. If LR is running in the mid 170s now the likelihood is that he will run closer to 180 in mid-March. All of the others have yet to show they can do anything like this.
100% constructed to suit your own argument. Are you seriously suggesting that the opposition he will face in March will not a) have their campaigns plotted for March b) be able to improve between now and March.
Yet, my arguement is simplistic. Yours is arrogant and self-serving.
The idea that Long Run got back up as showing how "great horses find ways to win championship races when not running to their best" isnt worthy of this forum. Had the line come in time for Captain Chris, it wouldnt have meant Long Run was any better or any worse than he is.
There is nothing to suggest that Sivliniaco Conti wouldnt have beaten him by further yesterday than he did in the Betfair. The race ultimately took no winning. I think the way the weather has played out, I think Nicholls really missed a trick by not running Tidal Bay there.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
But he didn't win the Gold Cup last year and chances are that renewal will be far worse than the 2013 race.
Even his win the previous year doesn't look that good in hindsight. Kauto Star was never right that year, Denman was passed it and What a Friend was too close. I think Long Run is better at Kempton and surely one or more of Flemenstar, SDC, Silviniaco Conti or Bob's Worth (all four of whom are significantly better than the likes of Burton Port and The Giant Bolster) will be too hot for him to handle.