The Road to the 2012 King George

SteveM said:
You might as well say that any horse wins a championship race by default in that case. Perhaps Frankel won his races by default? Long Run has won on merit against all that have turned up to face him in this and remains the best horse in training at the trip... if that's "by default" then good luck to him.
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That's far from what I'm saying. He won because the others who had the potential to run him very close (Riverside Theatre) or improve past him (Cue Card and maybe Grands Crus) didn't run their races, which I'd suspected beforehand might happen. That's quite different from saying a vastly superior horse should because it's vastly superior. I didn't say Dynaste would win by default, did I?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Denman won it off an OR 14lbs higher and with 12lbs more on his back. Even in his own race, Bobs Worth comes out of it inferior to Tidal Bay (and I have said I expect BW to improve past him) and Tidal Bay is about on a par with the likes of Neptune Collonges and What A Friend.

Bobs Worth's was a very strong Hennessy but the form doesn't make him a Gold Cup winner. That doesn't mean he can't or won't win the Gold Cup.
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Can you imagine what Denman would have done to a Tidal Bay in his first Hennessy getting weight from him. Bob's Worth now is the same price the Tank was this time in 2007 for the following year's Gold Cup.
 
He's maybe the same price but is he of the same ability? If you believe he is then he is a bet. If not, he isn't.

Denman's subsequent form shows he would have slaughtered just about anything in receipt of that weight. That's the advantage of hindsight. Successful punting is the art of turning hindsight into foresight.
 
Prices for 2013:

6 Bob's Worth
7 Simonsig
8 Long Run
12 Silviniaco Conti
14 Cue Card
14 The Giant Bolster
16 Al Ferof
16 Benefficient
16 Captain Conan
16 Flemenstar


I know he's injured but 16s for Al Ferof is stunning. It's a market choc full of animals who either don't stay or don't like Kempton.
 
front two in the market are daft there. kempton won't suit bobs worth a jot & simonsig is a 2m horse for me and unless they can get him to settle far better than he usually does he hasn't got an earthly of getting home in a king george.

long run is solid at 8's but silvi conti is fantastic at 12s. i'd steam in but can't be at all sure what nicholls will do. al ferof was his king george horse this year and might be the same again.
 
SC wasn't considered a King George horse last year, nor is likely to be this.
The suggestion that he wouldn't have stayed (yesterday) is laughable, and he'd be a much sounder CGC bet
 
aye the old staying thing again

staying is only relative to the oppo..LR doesn't "stay" against horses like Bobsworth..but he does against such as Captain Chris ..basically late 160's types won't beat LR..but mid 170+'s ones will.

SC beat LR easily..and so stays better than he does..so is very likely to be able to "stay" at Bobsworth's level
 
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