The Road to the 2012 King George

I'm bamboozled by some comments on here.

Mentioning Long Run in the same breath as Kauto Star is a joke IMO.

He may be one of the best in England at the moment and yes he's won 2 King George's and a Gold Cup but in between era's not during one if that makes sense.

He never met either Kauto Star or Denman at their best and wouldn't be within a stone of either of them imo.

Look at what's out there now :- Flemenstar, Sprinter Sacre, Dynaste, Bog Warrior, Sir Des Champs, Simonsig, Bobsworth and Last Instalment all of which look like they could win at the Festival.

Long Run may have won the King George today but if either Simonsig or Sprinter Sacre are stepped up next season he wouldn't see the way they went.

His last chance for glory IMO is the Gold Cup and that's only if the two speed horses Flemenstar and Dynaste don't make it. Even at that then he'll have to cope with his stable companion Bobsworth and the bombproof Last Installment if he comes back as good as ever.

I just can't see where Long Run can go now. I think he'll always run a decent race but win another big race? I doubt if he will even if he stays in training until he's a 12 year old.
 
OTB said:
Horse has some heart to win again despite the jock. Went too early, fecked up at least three fences, and still it wins.

I hear there is a whif of monte cristos coming from Bobs stable at 7barrows.
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It isn't the jockey's fault that the horse can't jump. Too much SWC bashing on here. He is an amateur who gave the horse a great ride to win the second biggest chase of the year. Dickie Johnson is an awesome jockey and a tough, seasoned pro. He got a whip ban in a desperate finish - SWC managed to galvanise LR and get back up. I for one think it was a great effort. All this "won in spite of the rider" stuff is a tad curmudgeonly for me.
 
Euronymous said:
No, he wasn't unlucky but imo he'd have won on better ground.
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I think he was 2nd because of the ground not in spite of the ground plus Long Run isn't exactly a slow coach on good ground either.

He lost because he failed to lie up with them in exactly the same fashion as he did last year on much better ground.

I just don't see it as having made any difference he simply doesn't travel in his races and his lack of mid race pace is evident on both surfaces
 
The way Long Run gets over the jumping errors to still win makes him a bit of a freak imo.

Not the same type of freak that a Frankel is but a freak nevertheless.

IF, and its a big if, he jumped better in the GC there's nothing stopping him running well and getting placed. Overall though in the long term its hard to see where there is for him to go, unless he puts in the race of his life in the Gold Cup.

Ps, is the Bolster o.k? Obviously hated the ground but I just hope he's safe and sound.
 
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Sometimes I think it's Bloody amazing how well the Pipes seem to turn out their winning horses.

Being a novice won't stop them running him if they think he has a chance.
 
Tanlic said:
I think he was 2nd because of the ground not in spite of the ground plus Long Run isn't exactly a slow coach on good ground either.

He lost because he failed to lie up with them in exactly the same fashion as he did last year on much better ground.

I just don't see it as having made any difference he simply doesn't travel in his races and his lack of mid race pace is evident on both surfaces
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He looks a better horse this year though. You may be right but I'd like to think he'd have been closer up on a decent surface.
 
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SteveM said:
I can believe you are... It’s paid for my Christmas and is one of a very few bets I’ve had in the past couple of months and was disproportionately large. He clobbered a couple but still has it in the tank.
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Steve, you are one of the honest guys.

How exactly were you feeling when LR lost a length and a lot of momentum at the last?

Had he failed to get up to beat CC would you still be convinced the horse is as good as he was?

I was hoping - but not prepared to bet - LR would prove me wrong about not running to the same level as a couple of years ago but today just cemented my belief. He's levelled out 10lbs short of that old form. I still hope I'm wrong though.
 
He won a KG, beating several highly touted horses, despite several jumping errors. Just enjoy it.
 
Hamm said:
He won a KG, beating several highly touted horses, despite several jumping errors. Just enjoy it.
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Highly touted maybe but there's a gulf between being highly touted and highly rated.

According to Derek Thomson River Maigue is a superstar. Darlan is a superstar. Radjhani Express is a superstar in the making. Long Run is the Gold Cup winner.

I can enjoy races that don't contain superstars. I haven't said I didn't enjoy today's race. I identified Long Run as the most likely winner and was willing it to get back up but if we're talking about the Gold Cup we have to be realistic. The form just doesn't stack up. Champion Court came into the race off an OR of 155, Captain Chris 162. In the end they've run their ORs pretty much to the ounce. Look at the ORs for the entire field. From 172 to 155, averaging less than 163. That's handicap figures. Even Madison Du Berlais, beaten nearly 40 lengths into second by Kauto Star a few years ago, was rated 169.

They can tout them all they want but if I'm laying down my money I want to know what levels of ability I'm dealing with.
 
Good post DO. Long Run seems to be hitting between 166-172 virtually every time he runs. He's most consistent in that regard and now it's up to punters to try and figure out if we can find one who can run to a better mark. The portents weren't good today with Al Ferof out but at Cheltenham there are at least three horses near the top of the market who all look capable of 170+ figures. Add in the probability that Kempton does suit the horse more than Cheltenham and he looks poor value at single figure odds.
 
Well done to the LR backers. Gutted for RJ and Captain Chris. SWC was brutal though - inability to pull whip through to left hand almost cost his backers thousands. Both horses gave absolutely everything...
 
The ground played a very big part in today's result, and Long Run was its principal beneficiary. He wouldn't have that advantage on a normal Festival Friday, and won't fare any better than last year without it.
 
On The Bridle said:
Both horses gave absolutely everything...
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Am I the only one who thought LR was idling between the last two? The reverse angle also appeared (may it's me misreading it) to show him flicking his ears as he closed down CC in the last 50 yards. That makes me think he's better than the bare form but he'd really need to be.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Highly touted maybe but there's a gulf between being highly touted and highly rated.

According to Derek Thomson River Maigue is a superstar. Darlan is a superstar. Radjhani Express is a superstar in the making. Long Run is the Gold Cup winner.

I can enjoy races that don't contain superstars. I haven't said I didn't enjoy today's race. I identified Long Run as the most likely winner and was willing it to get back up but if we're talking about the Gold Cup we have to be realistic. The form just doesn't stack up. Champion Court came into the race off an OR of 155, Captain Chris 162. In the end they've run their ORs pretty much to the ounce. Look at the ORs for the entire field. From 172 to 155, averaging less than 163. That's handicap figures. Even Madison Du Berlais, beaten nearly 40 lengths into second by Kauto Star a few years ago, was rated 169.

They can tout them all they want but if I'm laying down my money I want to know what levels of ability I'm dealing with.
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What in gods name does anything Thommo says have to do with it? :confused:

And who on here says Long Run is a superstar? Your point is he and other potential GC horses are substandard, when they are patently not.

Can you let me know the many horses who have won a Hennessy off a higher mark than Bob's Worth?

163 is not a handicap grade horse; you seem to have got sucked into the hype of recent years that this is an easy figure to attain.

Finally, the biggest thing I take from your posts is your entire view of a horse is backward looking; you want to see improvement in a race rather than spot an improver beforehand. it is obvious to me Captain Chris ran his best race today, but your stubborn view means you are too inflexible to change your pre-race view of him.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Steve, you are one of the honest guys.

How exactly were you feeling when LR lost a length and a lot of momentum at the last?

Had he failed to get up to beat CC would you still be convinced the horse is as good as he was?

I was hoping - but not prepared to bet - LR would prove me wrong about not running to the same level as a couple of years ago but today just cemented my belief. He's levelled out 10lbs short of that old form. I still hope I'm wrong though.
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I’ve always had quite a high regard for Captain Chris and he came with a convincing run. But despite Long Run meeting the last all wrong and losing momentum I honestly had no doubt at all that LR would reel CCh back in. It was just a question of whether the line would come first. Like I said, the further they went the more he won by.

Despite clobbering a couple he jumped brilliantly at others. I would think LR was better than 10lb short of his old form today. They had the third 14 lengths behind and I'd agree with Hamm that CCh has undoubtedly run his best race today.
 
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Marble said:
The way Long Run gets over the jumping errors to still win makes him a bit of a freak imo.
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Many good horses have been inconsistent jumpers (brilliant at some, like a pig at others). Not unlike See More Business, Carvill's Hill, or indeed Kauto Star in this respect. All of these were usually able to find a leg when they needed to.
 
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reet hard said:
The ground played a very big part in today's result, and Long Run was its principal beneficiary. He wouldn't have that advantage on a normal Festival Friday, and won't fare any better than last year without it.
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He's won one Gold Cup and been placed in another. Faring any better is a rare thing. The horse deserves high recognition.
 
Euronymous said:
Add in the probability that Kempton does suit the horse more than Cheltenham and he looks poor value at single figure odds.
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I backed him for the Gold Cup at 8/1 before today's race and am very happy with that as solid value. Anyone who thinks it is poor value is taking a very strange view of things. Whether he actually wins the Gold Cup or not It gives me a lot of latitude to back any dangers on the day.
 
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