The Road To The 2013 Grand National

Is Corbett going to ride T43 ? AP is bound to be claimed for something . I see Schofield is jocked up on Sat. JT Mc got on well with the horse last year.
 
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chroniclandlord said:
Disappointing from Teaforthree today. I'd expected him to at least make the places.
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Copied from Rebecca Curtis on Facebook

As everyone is messaging what happened to Teaforthree will just give Nicks comments - He hated the sticky heavy ground especially with all that weight on him. Also Haydock not really a jumpers track - the fences are too small!! He looked after him and we'll freshen him up for the main target Aintree grand national. Nick thinks he's Taylor made for the race- better ground, nice weight and big fences! Anyway the main thing he is perfect this morning #Live to fight another day!!
 
Blog from Phil Smith


Last Tuesday saw the unveiling of the weights for this year's Grand National. It is always an exciting day waiting for the various responses to my work both positive and negative. This year there was only one major criticism and it concerned the weight allocated to Tidal Bay, who has sadly now been announced as a non runner.

Here was my thinking about the weight I allocated to him. Tidal Bay is currently rated 171. The average Grand National winner is raised by 9lb. so to win the National off a mark of 171 would mean Tidal Bay having to run to a level of 180. He is a 12 year old and I believed that would be impossible for him to achieve under the unique conditions that Aintree provides. I therefore dropped him to 162 for the race. This meant he would have to replicate his runs in either the Hennessy or the Lexus chases at the end of last year if he were to win.

Most people would think that to be perfectly possible if the race was over 3 miles or a little further and of course I wouldn't have dropped him to 162 in those circumstances. However the John Smith's Grand National is a completely different test to those that he passed with flying colours at Newbury and Leopardstown. It is another mile plus and over the stiffest thirty fences in the world.

I tried to set a puzzle so that on the one hand people might think he was perfectly capable of running to 171 on most tracks yet could he do it at Aintree? I suspect opinions would have been split. After making that decision all of the horses immediately below him had their ratings reduced but in a decreasing way so that Albertas Run was reduced by 8lb. Imperial Commander by 4lb. etc. The first horse that did not have his rating reduced was Prince de Beauchene.

In a normal handicap he would have been getting 16lb. from Tidal Bay yet I was offering him only 7lb. Technically he was the horse that suffered most from my decision. I therefore found it reassuring that his owner Mr Wylie was happy with my decision and his trainer Willie Mullins said in his article on Page 8 of the Racing Post on Sunday, "I am completely in favour of the policy of compressing the weights for the race." He is now currently the favourite or joint favourite for the race.

Of course Tidal Bay is no longer an intended runner and the weights will go up by at least 2lb. If Albertas Run is a non runner they will go up by 4lb. and if Imperial Commander is a non runner they will go up by 5lb. The top weight has to be 11st. 10lb. on the day.

One little known rule that I could have used is the one which enables us to link hurdle form to a horse's chase rating. This has proven helpful to trainers as for every horse that goes up for running well over the alternative obstacle just over four horses have been dropped over the last year.

I looked closely at the recent hurdle run of Seabass as it was only his second outing over hurdles. On our figures he improved by 58lb. from his previous run six years ago at Fairyhouse. After careful consideration I left him on the mark of 154 which was agreed at the Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification of 2012. Each year trainers run over hurdles in a so called attempt to disguise a horse's ability in the run up to the weights announcement. Unbeknown to them it is a risky course of action. I CAN take a hurdle run into consideration and at some point in the future I will do, if I think it is appropriate.

Although losing Tidal Bay as my top weight was disappointing, the upside is that four more horses were brought into the handicap as a result. The race still has a classy look about it as we now have a Ryanair winner and a Gold Cup winner at the head of the weights. Even if they don't make the starting line in April, What A Friend was placed in a Gold Cup, Quito De La Roque easily won a Grade 2 last time, while Katenko is one of the most improved horses in training. It will always be a great race.
 
chroniclandlord said:
Are you sure Slim? If they can't claim in the National, why can they claim in other Grade 3 races like the Betfair Hurdle?
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No I'm not right. Exact wording below.

Jockeys' allowances FLAT jockeys (any age) claim: 7lb until 20 Flat wins; 5lb until 50 wins; 3lb until 95 wins Allowances can be claimed in: 1. Non-Listed handicaps. 2. Races up to Class 3 inclusive. Special allowances apply in races for apprentices (aged 16-25).

JUMPS conditional jockeys (any age) claim: 7lb until 20 wins; 5lb until 40 wins; 3lb until 75 wins (Ire 60) Conditional jockeys with fewer than five wins can claim extra 3lb when riding for their own stable.

Allowances can be claimed in: 1. Handicaps (except Grand National); 2. Races up class 3 inclusive; 3. All NH Flat races Jumps figures include wins under all rules.

AMATEUR RIDERS CATEGORY A can ride in Flat races, chases & hurdle races confined to amateurs.

CATEGORY B (min 15 rides) can also ride in NH Flat races and any jumps race.

Amateurs can claim regardless of age; in Jumps races confined to amateurs, claims are: 7lb until 5 wins; 5lb until 10 wins; 3lb until 20 wins.

Special allowances may apply in Flat races confined to amateurs.
 
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