The Road To The 2013 Grand National

Grey said:
Are you objecting to the message to the jockeys?
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I'm objecting to the welfare nutters having a say on everything. The letter is a well written piece but I'd imagine will fall on deaf ears. If an owner/trainer wants his horse handy, any jock worth his salt will have it handy.
 
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SlimChance said:
Stan James have a number of spacial markets including who will be sent off fav. I know that this comes under a number of volatile influences on the day but I'd have thought On His Own is a slight odds on shot to be sent off fav. He's 5/2.

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I've topped up heavily at 6/4 with the news that Prince De Beauchene is a non runner.
 
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Grey said:
I agree with this too, the RSPCA doesn't own the race, and this guy is overstepping his role. Nevertheless they have enough influence to destroy the race's credibility with the general public so it's better to work with them. Taking them on would be madness, would you want NH racing to be characterised as pro cruelty by a mainstream organisation, and would you want to oppose their general cause anyway?
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I agree Grey, my stance is an emotional one rather than a rational one. The right thing to do in the cold light of day is to work with them for the sake of the sport and I absolutely support their cause; just not the tone of his words.
 
Imperial Commander could appear at the Punchestown Festival if conditions rule him out of the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on Saturday week.

Connections of the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup hero are likely to wait until Tuesday before deciding whether to run in the National, and the 12-year-old is reported to be back in rude health after recovering from a lung infection that denied him the chance to reclaim his Gold Cup crown earlier this month.

However, the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained gelding, who would have to defy top weight of 11st 10lb in the National, will not be risked should the ground be heavy. Should be conditions be testing, he would also be likely to miss his alternative engagement at the meeting, the Betfred Bowl.

"We are still undecided. He will be confirmed at the five-day stage and we will have a look at the race," said Paul Costello, spokesman for owners the Our Friends In The North Syndicate.

"If the ground was heavy, he wouldn't run in the National and probably not in the Bowl either. If that was the case, he would wait for Punchestown. He's a much better horse on better ground, as his form shows. If we get something like good to soft we'd be over the moon.

"We'll see what the ground is at that time and that might sway us one way or the other. The horse worked well on Tuesday and he's in great shape and we'd be hopeful of a good run.

"I think what's happening is the bookmakers are going non-runner, no bet now and our horse is over-priced. When he starts to shorten, you get a snowball effect. There's no real need to make a decision just now. I would say after he has worked on Tuesday would be the time we would make a final decision."

Wyck Hill has definitely been ruled out of the big race by trainer David Bridgwater. The nine-year-old suffered a badly cut leg when disappointing on his first run for leading owner JP McManus in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton last month.

Bridgwater said: "He had a nasty gash after Kempton and, unfortunately, that meant we had to miss a couple of weeks with him. He's back in full work now and he's fine, but we just missed too much work with him, so we've run out of time for Aintree.

"We'll have to wait another year to have a crack at the National, but there are plenty of options for him for the end of this season. There is the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and Punchestown, so we'll see."
 
Diamond Geezer said:
"If the ground was heavy, he wouldn't run in the National and probably not in the Bowl either. If that was the case, he would wait for Punchestown. He's a much better horse on better ground, as his form shows. If we get something like good to soft we'd be over the moon.

"We'll see what the ground is at that time and that might sway us one way or the other. The horse worked well on Tuesday and he's in great shape and we'd be hopeful of a good run."
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This is an interesting quote, following on from the course's stated policy of providing soft ground, artificially if necessary, for the race. Imperial Commander would be one of the most exciting runners in the race for many seasons given his status as one of the better Gold Cup winners and his enhanced prospects under the compression of weights for the race. He's a must-bet in my book.

If statements like this go some way towards persuading the course not to overdo the watering, it will help produce a fairer contest with more chance of one of the 'right' horses winning.
 
Good news for Commander fans

Only deep ground will prevent Imperial Commander lining up in the John Smith's Grand National. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies told RUK: "He will be running unless it's very deep - which I don't think it will be." ( 1 hour ago)
 
That blows my theory out of the water. I was hoping Rebecca Curtis would follow up with similar remarks regarding Teaforthree.

In fact I was hoping every one of the owners or trainers of fancied runners said the same thing!
 
8 horses withdrawn at 5-day declaration stage:

Prince De Beauchene, Bob Lingo, Tofino Bay, Lion Na Bearnai, Bostons Angel, Beshabar, Wyck Hill, Magnanimity

49 Left in, no change in the weights.
 
Don't know if he's an intended runner but Willie Mullins rarely declares jockeys until the overnight decs (or 48 hours, I suppose, for the National). On His Own isn't jocked up either
 
I wouldnt of thought so,probabley waiting for the punchestown GC,not that hed win anyway like.
 
Will have a sniff each way on padydeplasterer and always waining but ive narrowed it down to across the bay and chicago grey,focusing on the former with the mccains well known GN record.
 
I reckon Maguire's decision to ride Ballabriggs is significant. He's looking well-handicapped again, in the same way Red Rum looked chucked in in 1977...
 
SlimChance said:
Other notable ricks:

Winning Weight - 11st or more 6/5 (Boylesports)
A Female Jockey To Ride The Winner Of The 2013 Grand National 16/1 (Ladbrokes) - If I need to explain why this is a rick please give up the game.
Will All Of The Runners Safely Negotiate The First Fence ? Yes 5/1 (William Hiill)

A fascinating market is the winning SP. Skybet are betting 14/1 and under at 6/4 but horses in that bracket took out 29% of the market last season. The year before, where the bookmakers came in for massive criticism for the over-round returned, it took out over 50%. I think the 16/1-33/1 bracket will be mathematically the best value this time around 13/8.

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I can't believe the 5/1 is still available with Hills. I've had €240 on in total.
 
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