The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Perpetual said:
Six in the Christmas hurdle. Hopefully VVM runs

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Looking forward to that, Tent and The new One recreating there titanic battle of 3 years ago!
Rock on Ruby was beaten in this before going on to the big one (Grassy knows :p) but there's no Binocular in this line up so Yanworth ought to be taking this one if he has pretensions for March.
 
I agree, but!

You have to assume that The New One will need to make his own pace as you can't see who else will want to make it. If he does he'd set it up for Yanworth as you say, but I've a feeling that he might not and the first mile might be a bit of a dawdle. If that transpires it could easily set up for Ch'tibello, and of these he's the one with an incredible turn of foot off slower fractions. I wasn't going to have a bet in this, but on the basis that I think the race may be run to suit Ch'tibello at 8/1 I might have a re-think on value grounds.
 
Faugheen is among eleven entered in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown.

(2:30) 353E Ryanair H'dle (Grade 1) €59,000.00( 2m - 4yo+ )

1 Ch'tibello (FR)(145) (DSkelton (inGB)) - . ......................... 11,10
2 Clondaw Warrior(155) (WPMullins) - . 11,10
3 Faugheen(176) (WPMullins) - . ........... 11,10
4 Ivan Grozny (FR)(153) (WPMullins) - . 11,10
5 Nichols Canyon (GB)(162)(WPMullins) - . ............. 11,10
6 Petit Mouchoir (FR)(151) (HdeBromhead) - . ............... 11,10
7 Footpad (FR)(147) (WPMullins) - . ..... 11,07
8 Ivanovich Gorbatov(150)(JPO'Brien) - . .............. 11,07
9 Vroum Vroum Mag (FR)(154)(WPMullins) - . ............. 11,03
10 Whiteout (GER)(147) (WPMullins) - . . 11,03
11 Jer's Girl(146) (GCromwell) - . ............ 11,00
 
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Perpetual said:
I wasn't that disappointed with the run granger. It was her first of the season and personally think Ruby gave her plenty to do. She and Yanworth are the sexy unexposed ones and hope they both turn up
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She's a fine mare and would far better off in a slightly smaller stable if you ask me, but she's probably of a similar rating and ability to Quevega, maybe a couple of lbs below, and I wouldn't have have her better than a place chance in a 2m G1 hurdle.
 
MTOY was more than a stone below his CH run when VVM beat him, so I wouldn't take that G1 at its name. We have TNO who's been the best british hurdler for 3 years now and I feel that with the change of tactics and NTD realizing that maybe the asset was in the stamina rather than the turn of foot, he'd be pretty unstoppable. If TNO is at his best then Yanworth would need miracles or a serious engine to trouble him. If he does then put him at the head of CH given that F and AP won't likely be seen again.
 
It amuses me Aughex that you diss the chances of Brain Power on the grounds he'll be up against proper G1 animals including F and AP and then you say above they likely won't be seen again

Keep up the good work [emoji2]


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F and AP are exceptional horses. There are plenty G1 hurdlers around that I can see troubling Brain Power. I base my opinion of Brain Power because he obtained the 160+ mark in handicaps not in graded races where the pace can break some horses apart.
 
Aughex said:
... when there are couple G1 horses out there that can beat him, like TNO MTOY NC F AP, then I don't consider the 3/1 to be value at all.
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TNO is a 162 horse, BP is now a 162 horse but is on a steep curve, having been raised 7lbs then 13lbs for his last two runs. Of course his form must plateau out at some point but I think it's more likely to plateau later rather than sooner, given his age and relative inexperience.

MTOY looks for all the world to be in decline or disinterested.

NC is exposed as short of good enough to win a CH, decent animal though he is.

It's unlikely both Faugheen and AP will run so you could argue that BP really only has one to beat [ie whichever of them runs]. I think that makes 25/1 quite appealing.

I haven't backed him each-way, by the way, so the idea of just over 3/1 place only is irrelevant to me. I'd rather lay off the bet at a fraction of the odds on or nearer the day for a no-risk interest.
 
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After reading the last bit about CC being better in a bigger field absolutely f*** all is what his thoughts are worth. CC hasn't raced in a field of more than 10 in the last 5 years

Thanks for posting though


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@DO, you'll find that TNO is rated back at his best at 167 from the official handicapper. By RP last race performance he's rated 6lb of his best(171). He's a proper G1 animal over 2 miles.

I know MTOY is on decline, thats why I mentioned that VVM beating him at P'town is nowhere near what he achieved when 2nd to AP. NC without the mistake at the last and AP allowance would've won the CH already. He's an 168 RP rated animal over 2 miles, something that BP is missing half of stone with all his improvement. Not saying he can't get there, but for me he has a lot to prove to place even for a 25/1 bet.

If I take a chance on BP, I'd find 3-4 others at similar prices and cases to be made. I made a case for IT last year because I thought he could really go to the top but by then he had gone on in 2 G1s and won one of them and in the other he met a top class opponent in NC. So I was making the case for him based on his runs in G1s not his handicap wins.
 
I actually have the most tremendous respect for the handicapper but I have never - ever - got TNO above 162 on my figures. Obviously there will be times when my own and the OH's figures are at odds and this is clearly one of those times.

If, in this case, he's right and I'm wrong I have to accept that it might end up costing me but it won't be the first time and it won't be the end of the world.
 
I'm still trying to get over the insult of you lot saying I said Brain Power was still a 149 horse after winning a handicap off that mark.........must be you think I am as dumb as dogshit.

I read so much friggin nonsense about handicapping on here I could scream at times.


Handicappers have a ball and chain round their necks and end up with stupid meaningless numbers that rule way too many horses out of races they should be competitive in.

Then it takes them 3 years to get back onto a winning mark.

You claim Nicky Henderson knew Brain Power was going to win the other day. Is that why he went off at 12/1? or why after the race Nicky was interviewed scratching his head wondering where the fook am I going to run him now? He mentioned the Betfair but added a frown saying but then the handicapper will have his say................obviously that plan is fooked.

They didn't expect the horse to win like that and I'd bet a bottle of champers to a can of coke it will turn out he was flattered no end and he is no more a Champion Hurdle horse than flying in the air.
 
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No, I didn't claim Hendo knew BP would win the other day. I said (with the benefit of hindsight) I assumed he knew because surely he must have known how good an animal he had on his hands. The handicapper has now said BP is a 162 horse. NH must have had a pretty good idea how close to that he was before he ran.

NH is also a consummate actor in front of the TV cameras.

You put up the champers and I'll put up the can of Aldi's diet cola :)

(I accept you didn't mean BP was a 149 horse, just saying it was hard to get away from that interpretation.)
 
fonz said:
Looking forward to that, Tent and The new One recreating there titanic battle of 3 years ago!
Rock on Ruby was beaten in this before going on to the big one (Grassy knows :p) but there's no Binocular in this line up so Yanworth ought to be taking this one if he has pretensions for March.
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Shameless trolling by fonz......at Christmas too. Brutal scenes.

I would barely be bothered to put the goggler on, to watch that Xmas Hurdle. It's a sack of sh*it race, even with the mare in it.
 
I don't think he did realise DO or he would have tucked him away and backed him for squilians of 149 in the old Schweppes like Ryan Price used to.

He did it with MTOY and Darlan 146.

Actually when you think about it the Betfair could be a possibility as Nicky loves the race. Punjabi carried 11.5lbs and finished 2nd and went on to run 3rd to Katchit and then won the following year's CH.

One way of finding out how good he actually is before Cheltenham
 
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