The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Aughex said:
Lets say only 5 lengths, he got beat in the end by 1 length. He would've won comfortably had he not taken the wider route. That is post race comment, Barry might have thought anything during it but that doesn't mean we can't say that his decision was wrong.
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I agree. I was really only trying to get a more accurate perspective on the effect of his position through the race.

It's something I often think of with regard to amending my own ratings:

Should I try to calculate how much further wide runners have run and add the appropriate poundage to my figure?

If so, will I have to do oit for every horse in every race?

Etc, etc.

Ultimately, I reckon it would take the fun out of studying the form. I spend (or try to) on average a minute per runner. I reckon going into the minutiae would more than double that and by the time I got through a card I'd be pissed off with it!

I'm happy to use annotations like '+' or '++' where I think circumstances justify it. I might then spend a couple of minutes checking back through videos to get a more quantifiable idea and take it from there.

As an extreme example, Open Eagle's November handicap win. He raced very wide, probably running well over 50 yards (16/17 lengths) further than the inside runners but he hacked up because he was racing on ground that was clearly less soft.

Obviously we'll never really know about the Neptune and I accept you're almost certainly right but it's the kind of thing that happens in 10+ runner fields day in day out. Who's to know that if the two horses in question raced again the same tactics wouldn't be employed?

I just think we didn't see the real Yanworth that day regardless of how the race itself panned out.

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One thing that does interest me (since I have an ante-post involvement) is that they're coming back to 2m with Yanworth soon after Sceau Royal's moderate run at Newcastle. The latter is reportedly being rested now ahead of a spring campaign so maybe they're keen to test Yanworth's speed in case Sceau Royal doesn't make it to the Champion Hurdle. Maybe King will shed some light on the situation in his Weekender column tomorrow.
 
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@DO, the math would be so hard to make for every single race, I spent more than 5 minutes using google maps and a software to determine the calculations for only the last turn in the Neptune, it only yielded 6 yards lost but the important bit was the route he kept going as he was pushed much further on the outs by Itsafreebe, so its not just going 4-5 wide but that last turn he lost couple lengths just for the path he was forced to take.

I'd agree with the soft/better ground but for that we need to find evidence in previous races and as far as I know there weren't any biases on that day. Looking back now, Diamond King took the inside on that same turn and he made bounds of ground vs the rest, you could argue he was the better horse but there's also a potentially point to be made that the ground on the inside was better.
 
Tanlic said:
Most of them most certainly don't become Champion Hurdlers....I've heard so many people say that but it is a falacy...There's been only 3 went on to win the Champion Hurdle in 45 years. Faugheen, Hardy Eustace and Istabraq

Rock on Ruby, Binocular, Jezki, Sublimity, Brave Inca Bula and Hors La Loi III all came out of the Supreme others like Browns Gazette and Golden Cygnet most certainly would have won the Champion Hurdle if they were not killed.
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Rock on Ruby ran in the Neptune mate

Just got beat by first Lieutenant
 
So it's a pretty even split between Neptune and Supreme horses since Istabraq. It's funny how the majority of those Supreme horses you've listed won pretty terrible renewals of the CH.
 
Sensible decision though. MTOY would have no chance against a fit Faugheen but Yanworth is taking a step into the unknown and anything could happen. Plus if Faugheen does not turn up he would win it running backwards.. Tracks a minus as you suggest but boy are we lacking good hurdlers outside of Ireland
 
When are Timeform going to get on with it, and give MTOY a squiggle? It's been over-due for 3 years now.
 
granger said:
TNO should go world hurdle now
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I was just thinking exactly the same thing, Granger.
They should leave the two mile hurdling division on a good note.... step him up for The Rekeel Hurdle on New Year Day now.
 
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On soft going it would take a good one to beat The New One whatever the trip.
he got some cheer by all accounts and fully deserved too.
just checked his Champion Bumper run when sixth behind Champagne Fever with Jezki and Many Clouds behind him; he has some very decent horses see his rear end in five seasons racing.
 
I would send him straight to the festival and then on to Aintree.Certainly not saying he will win but he could well be placed and the Stayers Hurdle could rip the guts out of him.
 
edgt said:
On soft going it would take a good one to beat The New One whatever the trip.
he got some cheer by all accounts and fully deserved too.
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Might; if Richard Johnson rode him from the front as he did today. STD isn't nearly the same judge of pace, and it's arguable that the horse jumped better for RJ, too.
 
NIgel TD has had a rush of blood to the head and needs to be hitting it off the nearest wall. Some fellow posters should go find the same wall:lol:

I'm afraid beating MTOY even at the weights these days is a long way off Champion Hurdle form If the Mullins army turn up it will be a complete waste of time and money going for the big one.

I thought Johnson presented him really well at his hurdle, schooling fences probably helped wake up his ideas and the lack of any real pressure also contributed..long may it continue.

Ok he can pick up another prize at Haydock and maybe if he's lucky get place in the Champion but that is about the best they can expect.

If his jumping stood up he'd make Altior go as I suggested the other week but against Faugheen or Annie.......been there done that bought the T-shirt and threw the fooker away.
 
I recall an interview that King had regarding Yanworth well before the festival. He seemed more intent on the horses education and that the longer distance would give him more time to learn and get balanced. Asked about 2 miles he never ruled it out.
I think the Neptune race had two key moments that ultimately decided the result; 3 out Yanworth made a mistake, Geraghty had to roust him to maintain his position and his top speed run virtually started there. Yanworth's run began there because at almost the same time, Yorkhill got a dream run up the inside and effortlessly opened up a 3L lead.
Welsh didn't have to go for Yorkhill, he just let him coast down the hill, fill his lungs up and explode him up the run in after the last.
To this point at the 3rd last; I think you must seriously consider the extra ground Yanworth covered as a divining factor, up to this point both horses had lobbed effortlessly with peloton shielding; both jockeys were waiting to make there moves, nothing in the race; either tactically or otherwise, not even the stamina laden horses left toiling; would suggest that stamina was a requisite. Yanworth made up 6 lengths on Yorkhill after being driven for twice the top speed run of Yorkhill's and in my humble opinion, was a shade unlucky.
 
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I thought Brain Power ran a really decent Champion Hurdle trial at Ascot on Saturday and I've had a fair bet on him at 25/1 for the Champion. He cantered all over a good class field off a mark of 149. He's young, lightly-raced and in good hands and it looks a generous price to me.
 
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gus said:
I thought Brain Power ran a really decent Champion Hurdle trial at Ascot on Saturday and I've had a fair bet on him at 25/1 for the Champion. He cantered all over a good class field off a mark of 149. He's young, lightly-raced and in good hands and it looks a generous price to me.
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I'll be doing my figures in detail in midweek but I'm broadly in agreement at this stage. I already have other a/p bets in the race but added BP today at 25/1.

There are a couple of interpretations you can make on the race - there was a general element of dissatisfaction about how it unfolded for me - but on broad lines with the likes of Fergall's best older form, Modus, Quick Jack etc, there are grounds for believing this could be high class form.

One interpretation makes BP some way better than the likes of The New One, which I think is a reasonable place marker for the race.
 
I disagree unfortunately. I have the form some way below what would be required to place in an average Champion Hurdle. Nothing in behind really holds the form up, and the time doesn't support the case either.

That said it was a decent enough handicap performance and he's won two on the spin now, so there may be more to come.

Because of the manor of his follow up victory I'd say the handicapper will put him up by 10lb's to 159. I have it at 156, which is well short of Champion Hurdle class. I'd say off a mark in the high 150's if he stays there between now and March Henderson is more likely to step him up in trip and run him in the Coral Cup. That said Michael Buckley may fancy a runner in the Champion Hurdle where his colours haven't been seen too often. Who knows he may progress further in another big handicap. I'd say more likely he'll struggle to win off a revised Mark though if the handicapper gives him what I think he will.
 
Maruco said:
I disagree unfortunately. I have the form some way below what would be required to place in an average Champion Hurdle.
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That's why he's 25/1 and not 5/2.

He's young and improving. The two at the head of the market will both be nine come March, one of them has had an injury and there has to be a question mark whether they will take each other on in any event. Yanworth, a horse I like, is only being aimed at the race as an afterthought following the emergence of Uknowwhatimeanharry as a World Hurdle contender. Yorkhill, Vroum Vroum Mag and Apple's Jade are unlikely runners.

Who's to say it will turn out to be an "average" Champion Hurdle?
 
As I said, there are a couple of interpretations you can put on the form. Yours is the other one, maruco.

However, with such valuable and ultra-competitive handicaps nine times out of ten I'll go for the generous interpretation on the basis that these races are not gimmes. Decent, consistent handicappers can run their races and be blown out of sight in them. There was something irking me about yesterday's race and I couldn't put my finger on it, maybe it was the fog or camera work and I wondered about the level of the race afterwards but that was probably because BP wasn't on my short list and CDT really only just made it but wasn't a bet for me. Maybe the sectional debrief will shed further light. I wouldn't immediately jump to the conclusion that it was outstanding form but, rather than the 90% scenario, I'm leaning more towards a 75% one in favour of the generous interpretation.
 
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