The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Wouldn't hold my breath waiting for sectionals, DO. They're indiscriminate enough over jumps anyway, but yesterday's fog will render them little more than guesswork.
 
Yes, it occurred to me as soon as I'd posted the comment.

Still, it might be guesswork but it contains an element of educated guesswork which has to be preferable to uneducated guesswork.
 
there's no value in a 25/1 unless that shot has a winning chance. Brain Power simply doesn't have a win shot, he'd be outclassed by multiple G1 horses and even if he makes the frame thats a 3/1. No value given that he's only a low 160 rated horse and this mark was achieved against handicappers, not proper Graded horses.
 
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Would you disagree that he might be on a very nice curve, Aughex? If so, who's to say where that curve might plateau?

There's surely more to value than whether a horse has 'a winning chance' too. It has to be about whether you're getting better odds than its true chances. Strange things do happen in racing and if someone believes the horse's true chance to be, say, 12/1 then surely taking 25/1 and laying it off to no risk is not throwing away money?

I reckon come the day BP will have a better chance than the likes of The New One would have had in any of his CH runs to date and plenty of people thought he was a good bet at single-figure odds.
 
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I agree with parts of that DO. Value is value, and if you think you can trade at half the price or less then I'd be a player. However I'm not sure with Brain Power. If he gets turned over next time that won't happen, and as I've already said, there are too many doubts about him for me at this stage.

I don't agree with The New One comparison either. In the Champion Hurdle where he made that bad mistake he would surely have gone close, and I think Brain Power has to improve too much what I've seen so far.
 
Aughex clearly doesn't understand the concept of value.

Faugheen and Annie Power between them take 62% out of the market a best-prices, and it's completely legit to look elsewhere, given the lack of positive vibes about either. In a scenario where neither run, I'd rather take my chances with Brain Power at 25/1, as he at least looks like he may still be progressive), than back TNO (a horse who has never jumped well enough, nor displayed the tactical speed required, to win a Champion Hurdle) at the same price.
 
archie said:
Brain Power reminds me of Sign Of A Victory.
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Dunno about that Archie. Brain Power's handicap win looks a hell of a lot deeper than the Listed handicap that SOAV won.

Be interested to hear DO's opinion the comparison, seeing as he also backed SOAV for the Champion after that handicap win.
 
Grasshopper said:
Dunno about that Archie. Brain Power's handicap win looks a hell of a lot deeper than the Listed handicap that SOAV won.

Be interested to hear DO's opinion the comparison, seeing as he also backed SOAV for the Champion after that handicap win.
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Archie's remark had me ready to hit the 'reply with quote' button as it's something that occurred to me when I struck the bet. I was already imagining the slaggins I was going to get at the family festive do in my house next week, as my brothers who joined in the SOAV bet keep going on about "Sign Of A Gubbing"...

The main difference is obviously that SOAV won his handicap off 139, 10lbs lower than BP but SOAG was pulling double from start to finish that day whereas visibility prevented us from gauging just how well BP travelled. I didn't go particularly high with SOAG's race but just felt the horse travelled like a top class animal and the fact he was last to come off the bit against Faugheen in the Christmas hurdle the following season backed that up. I think the horse had a problem, very probably a lack of stamina at the top level.

I've still to finalise my figures for last Saturday's race but my initial back-of-fag-pack scribblings put BP nearly 20lbs in front of SOAG's handicap win, although I did reckon the latter had a good 10lbs in hand). He was off 10lbs more and it was a seriously stronger race, I think. Now, I was on SOAG at much bigger odds. Would I have been interested at the time in 25/1? I really can't say but probably not but maybe that's too easy to say with the 20/20 vision of hindsight.

I also see Topspeed has gone very high with his time ratings for the race.
 
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if annie power wins beating my tent or yours , last years edition
The New One wins the Bula
and Faugheen has been injured
altior is novice chaser

Brian Power has a definitive winning chance in this years edition
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Would you disagree that he might be on a very nice curve, Aughex? If so, who's to say where that curve might plateau?

There's surely more to value than whether a horse has 'a winning chance' too. It has to be about whether you're getting better odds than its true chances. Strange things do happen in racing and if someone believes the horse's true chance to be, say, 12/1 then surely taking 25/1 and laying it off to no risk is not throwing away money?

I reckon come the day BP will have a better chance than the likes of The New One would have had in any of his CH runs to date and plenty of people thought he was a good bet at single-figure odds.
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look what happened in last CH, everyone was throwing darts at the outsiders thinking they had value but instead the class horses finished as expected in the first 6. AP MTOY NC TNO TN and IT. For me to view BP as value bet would be like saying he's got no chance of winning and I'd bet 7/1 for him to place, bu currently he's 3/1. Also, what will he have to do to prove that his improving curve can hold up against the top horses? well he's going to have to be pointed in the G1 races that are left over 2 miles, the Christmas hurdle and ICH. Only by performing reasonably well in those he'll drop to 12/1.
 
Who are these "outsiders" that people were "throwing arrows at"......considering ten from a field of twelve started at 16/1 or less, and two of the six "class horse" you mention had double-figure SPs?
 
the fact they started @16s proves my point, try to look up the 'op at' in the RP to make a better idea(you'll miss horses like SM who was 33/1 with couple days before)
 
Brain Power...........Champion Hurdle? Huge ask for a 149 horse who beat his own stable companion twice..........Quite frankly doesn't say much for the rest.

Must have travelled ok but who knows for sure. Thick fog strung out like Mondays washing not alot to go on to be talking Champion Hurdle IMO
 
Tanlic said:
Brain Power...........Champion Hurdle? Huge ask for a 149 horse who beat his own stable companion twice..........Quite frankly doesn't say much for the rest.

Must have travelled ok but who knows for sure. Thick fog strung out like Mondays washing not alot to go on to be talking Champion Hurdle IMO
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He is not a 149 horse
he won one of the 3 hottest hcps of the year in style in an OR 149
he is a mid 160s , second season with scope,

live contender for me.
 
Six in the Christmas hurdle. Hopefully VVM runs

C0Mi40KW8AAkaDX.jpg:large
 
sunybay said:
He is not a 149 horse
he won one of the 3 hottest hcps of the year in style in an OR 149
he is a mid 160s , second season with scope,

live contender for me.
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Hottest Handicap my backside mate........It has produced nothing as a race


I never said he is a 149 horse I said he was................any fooker with half a brain knows he was going to go up 11lbs or more.

What the handicapper has done is typical of his dumb ass thinkinking and he's whacked him up to 162

Well you can forget the Betfair which MTOY won off 149 and HE was put up to 162 and that was no Betfair Hurdle

Now he's got nowhere to go.He would have had to give MTOY almost a stone in his year.

MTOY went off at 15/8 for the Supreme off his 162 and this horse who is supposed to be his equal is being touted by someone on the RP at 25/1 for the County Hurdle

That has me beat the top weight in the county is normally a 150'sh horse

My bet is Nicky will not be too hard on him and send him chasing unless he is a CH horse which I seriously doubt.
 
Tanlic said:
I never said he is a 149 horse I said he was................
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  • Brain Power...........Champion Hurdle? Huge ask for a 149 horse who beat his own stable companion twice..........Quite frankly doesn't say much for the rest​




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So how else should we interpret that, Tanlic?

The comment was made after Saturday's race so the obvious interpretation is that you reckoned he was a 149 horse at the time you posted.

I'm in a bit of a rush to get the bevvy & whatnot in for the weekend so will post more later but I can tell you the form book says:

... took this in impressive fashion, travelling well and readily asserting to win with tons in hand. He's clearly better than a handicapper...
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As sunybay says, his new rating puts him out of handicaps now and I imagine Henderson would have realised that assuming he knew he had this race in the bag before the off.

I have no idea whether he will go for the Champion but my figures say he's at least the equal of TNO at his best and TNO was placed in the race (and plenty on here will argue he should have won one).

I'm seeing Mrs Merton out of the corner of my eye... :lol:
 
Brain Power we know its a low 160s horse but again I fail to see how its value at this stage vs what he'll be close to the time, unless he goes to ICH and puts up a good display; if he doesn't he'll be back into 50s. Also a 25/1 is basically a 3/1 place shot and when there are couple G1 horses out there that can beat him, like TNO MTOY NC F AP, then I don't consider the 3/1 to be value at all.
 
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