The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

[Tanlic]

The very fact that You Augie would think what distance Buveur D'air beat Rayvin Black by has any bearing on anything amazes me how naive you are. The fact you say I always quote what jockeys say in my post amazes me.......I am very much free thinking and make my own decisions. While youare theone telling us barry Geraghty expected to win by 10 lengths.

You need to get your head out of your ass and when you watch a race like ths learn to ignore the fact Rayvin Black was even there.

I remember way back a similar situation when Hurricane Fly was first being touted as a Champion Hurdle horse he beat a mare called Donna's Palm by a neck and she would have picked up Rayvin Black and carried him but the critics said no way was this a CH horse. The nest time they met was a huge step up in class in the Champion Novices and Hurrivane Fly with better horses around him beat her 45 lengths.....They met again he beat her 19 lengths.

What you don't seem to understand is Buveur D'air was ridden to beat what was in front of him nothing more nothing less. If you added to that race yesterday Brain Power and Petite Mouchair then Rayvin Black wouldn't get within 30 lengths of Buveur D'air or the others so even trying to use the form to prove he's not up to CH standard is straight out of a comic book.

You've got double standards to suit your different arguments........Example.....You said Altior is so good he should take on Douvan after he beat a 147 rated horse by a mere 6 lengths which under your DB+RB way of thinking is nearly 20 lbs short of what you want to win an Arkle and 30lbs short of beating Douvan.....which in reality is asmuch utter tosh as you saying Buveur D'Air beating RB whe he is really trying is questionable

 

[Tanlic]

And again I have to correct you, this is what I ASKED "but how much he would've found today is very questionable 5-10 lengths? Is he really an 165 hurdler?" and this is what you responded with "I really cant respond to the fact that you feel the horse had nothing left to offer if asked for his effort"

Perhaps the road to poor house is trying to make stuff up from nothing, we don't actually know what a horse has left when going on the bridle. I only asked how much would he have found today? 5 10? heck I even went 20 lengths just for the sake of it. Thing is Barry asked him to 2 out and he could only put a length between himself and a handicapper. I know the horse is capable of more, problem is the rest of CH main contenders have proved they're capable of much more while he only put in a length beating yesterday against a 140 hurdler so you'd think JP would know the difference between winning a CH and a JLT.

He asked him what 2 out? to quicken for 3 strides then go back to sleep.......which you should do it's very late there

 

[Desert Orchid]

I've read back through the last few pages of this debate.

I'm wondering what kind of info Tanlic got about Buveur D'Air on the 1st Feb.

From not being in the picture, it was he and Brain Power being unknown quantities to BDA suddenly being the winner.

As for yesterday's race, the bottom line is it proves nothing other than, as Mick Fitzgerald said after the race, that BDA is still alive and has four legs and an engine.

The line with Rayvin Black is, I accept, meaningless in that BDA beat him so easily - as their known form said he should do and he was 1/4 to beat Irving rather than RB - we've no way of knowing what it amounts to. However, you can bet that organisations such as Timeform and RPR will be trying to quantify the performance relative to RB.

The TV team were trying to big up the performance yesterday. I don't have too much of a problem with that. They need to make the programme interesting.

We wouldn't read anything into a public gallop, which is pretty much what yesterday's race amounted to, but Rayvin Black to me looked like he'd been prepared as though this was his Champion Hurdle. His tail was tied up and he got to dictate his own pace and was ridden to save something for the home straight.

He couldn't get BDA off the bit but I'd contend that he couldn't have got Faugheen or AP or NC or PM or BP or SR or Altior or any serious CH contender off the bit either. But even if he had got one or more of them off the bit, it would still amount to nothing when you consider Rooster Booster was all out to beat Self Defense in the same race before he won his Champion Hurdle. I remember quite early in the original Rooster Booster thread that there was a long queue on here lining up to hammer nails into his Champion Hurdle coffin after that.

But since Timeform and Raceform will try to quantify the performance I don't think there should be any issue with our trying to do so too. It's just a debate. It's all ifs, what ifs and buts. The bottom line for me is that the bare form yesterday amounts to a lot less than RB achieved in scrambling home from Self Defense who was a reliable 152 yardstick in very soft ground. The bare form does not justify the hype.

I could draw all sorts of analogies from other sports or life situations but there's no need. It's one thing to look the part when there's no credible opposition. It's another when you get to the big one.

Buveur D'Air might well be Pegasus reincarnate (I hope people recognise the irony). He might be half a stone better than Brain Power. By the way, I've never said Brain Power (or Sceau Royal for that matter) would win the race, just that they were much longer prices than their form merited. I won't say BDA won't win it. I'm just saying yesterday's run has no bearing on whatever chance he might have. If he's gubbing Altior on the gallops, that's a different matter altogether.

 

[Aughex]

The very fact that You Augie would think what distance Buveur D'air beat Rayvin Black by has any bearing on anything amazes me how naive you are.

Sure, lets ignore facts.

The fact you say I always quote what jockeys say in my post amazes me.......

Well you're basing your arguments on what a jockey or trainer says. I can look it up, make a list of your arguments and see how you've backed them. This was another case in point.

I am very much free thinking and make my own decisions.

Good for you, no one denied that. But making your decision on what someone else says is being influenced by them and not relying on reality or your own thoughts.

While youare theone telling us barry Geraghty expected to win by 10 lengths.

Can you quote where I said that?

You need to get your head out of your ass and when you watch a race like ths learn to ignore the fact Rayvin Black was even there.

Again, I'll try to ignore facts in the future. I'll do it for you.

I remember way back a similar situation when Hurricane Fly was first being touted as a Champion Hurdle horse he beat a mare called Donna's Palm by a neck and she would have picked up Rayvin Black and carried him but the critics said no way was this a CH horse. The nest time they met was a huge step up in class in the Champion Novices and Hurrivane Fly with better horses around him beat her 45 lengths.....They met again he beat her 19 lengths.

Good for him, BDair is the next HF. Unless we forget it was a listed race yesterday, not a G1 and this wasn't Ireland where the pace of some races are so slow early on that farce results show up and shouldn't be taken at face value. With RB there wasn't a slow gallop, they went quick early.

What you don't seem to understand is Buveur D'air was ridden to beat what was in front of him nothing more nothing less.

And what you seem to not understand that he was entitled to beat whats in front of him, I even said pre-race that regardless what he'll do to a good yardstick in RB what he'll meet in the CH is a much more difficult task than a JLT. He only beat him by 1 length, thats good thats less than the formbook suggested but given the ease of victory you could make a case for him still capable of running to his 154 novice mark. He lacks a stone to win the CH. He'd lack nothing to win the JLT.

If you added to that race yesterday Brain Power and Petite Mouchair then Rayvin Black wouldn't get within 30 lengths of Buveur D'air or the others so even trying to use the form to prove he's not up to CH standard is straight out of a comic book.

Sorry you lost me here, too much speculation. If what not when how, you go on.

You've got double standards to suit your different arguments........Example.....

Thank God, an example finally lets see...

You said Altior is so good he should take on Douvan after he beat a 147 rated horse by a mere 6 lengths

Yes I said he should take on Douvan, but not after beating Charbel, much earlier. I said Altior hurdling form is outstanding and should go on for the CC as that race is awful looking. Since then it was confirmed there's really only a horse that'll take part, the rest good ones will be rerouted to Ryanair -UDS, Gods Own, Ar Mad.

which under your DB+RB way of thinking is nearly 20 lbs short of what you want to win an Arkle and 30lbs short of beating Douvan

Way of thinking?! RB is a handicapper while Charbel is a graded horse, he was playing with Brain Power last season, he was close to Yanworth. Thats a proper horse who was put aside by Altior like he was never there and not by a length. Beating Charbel so impressively is not only enough to win the Arkle but gives him claims for being in the CC. Douvan has never met a G1 horse in his career, Altior is a shade above G1 class so you can imagine why I want to see them clash. I simply want to join your side Tanlic thats all but I want to see the real measure, why are you so afraid of them meeting? Not only a great spectacle but will make the market for you backing Douvan.

 

[Tanlic]

I wonder what Alan King will do with Sceau Royal bow that he reckons he'll run Yanworth in the Kingwell. Not sure I'd be happy if I was Simon Munir as the plan was to run his horse and you wouldn't want to be taking on something like Yanworth a few weeks before big one.

When you look at the entries maybe we will get another surprise or to before the race.........WPM Faugheen, Yorkhill, Vroum Vroum Mag Alan King Sceau Royal Yanworth Nicky Henderson; Brain Power, Buveur D'Air, Top Notch, MTOY, Lami Serge, JP McManus MTOY, Yanworth Buveur D'air Jeski Ivanovich Gorbato Simon Munir Footpad Sceau Royal L'Ami Serge Top Notch

A couple of setbacks and gawd only knows what next

 

[Euronymous]

Douvan has never met a G1 horse in his career

He has beaten Sizing John and Alpha Des Obeaux. Both a Grade 1 class.

 

[Grasshopper]

More erroneous Douvan obsession from Aughex.

 

[Aughex]

He has beaten Sizing John and Alpha Des Obeaux. Both a Grade 1 class.

He beat ADO by 3 lengths as a novice, ADO is a full-on stayer. He may by G1 class but over staying trips and so far no G1s to his name.

Sizing John won a G1 by default after Nichols Canyon fell, that was in his novice hurdling days. He went on to win a G2 over fences and recently a G3. I'd say thats his level, below G1.

 

[Euronymous]

Sizing John beat a 162 rated horse with reasonable comfort last time out. That puts him in the high 160s, which is Grade 1 class. Look at the form, not the class of race.

 

[Aughex]

"with reasonable comfort last time out" Have you watched the race? Power was all-out on him in the last 2 furlongs.

"That puts him in the high 160s" High 160 for beating a 162? Sure why not.. "which is Grade 1 class" No, over fences in open company they're not, probably as novices. But lets say they are, what trip was he running on? Is he a G1 2 mile chaser?

Btw, he's officially rated 153, just to put things into perspective.

 

[Euronymous]

I don't give two shits what his rating is.

I've spent more time watching and thinking about this horse than some handicapper who has to rate hundreds of horses.

 

[Kauto Abu]

Some of you are going to laugh at this but shur what the heck, it's worth sharing I think. For what it's worth I'm fairly friendly with a former assistant head lad to Henderson now training in the states. I chat to him regularly enough and last night after the debate here I dropped him a text on whats app to see if he'd been chatting to any of the lads in 7 barrows. He had been on Friday, he keeps in close contact with both Head Lad Corky Browne (or uncle Albert as he calls him) & jockey Jerry McGrath, all Cork men. I basically asked him why BD had been switched back to hurdles and the answer back was that his homework was exceptional and Corky told him Friday that he is the fastest horse they have in the yard right now!! This is where you are probably laughing now because that would include Altior!! Most of you will think it's bull **** but this is honestly what was told to me and I have no reason to doubt said source.

I was quite taken aback by this also but to be fair to him any time he's passed on info it's been fairly spot on. Furthermore, he said his schooling over fences recently had been very deliberate but that when they schooled him over hurdles he was very, very good. I think Henderson said as much on tv yesterday so that's public knowledge anyway. Both Henderson & Geraghty described him as 'very slick' in his hurdling after yesterdays race.

I do know they hold BD in the highest regard and early last year was ahead of Altior in terms of pecking order. I was on at big price for the supreme on said advice. Altior started life over hurdles at Chepstow in October where as BD was kept for that Newbury race Henderson likes to target with his good novices at the end of November. Altior obviously flourished in between where as BD met with a minor setback keeping him off the track 'til the end of January. But he'd have gotten a lot closer to him in the Supreme with a clear passage than the 8L margin between the two, that's for sure. Certainly wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility to suggest he's improved beyond him again.


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[TheBear]

Information like that is worth it's weight in gold Kauto. I really do think the best way in to working out this years winner is that Aintree novice hurdle. I absolutely love Petit Mouchoir's last two performances, proper professional stuff that stood out above anything else I've seen this season. At the time I was very happy that I'd seen the Champion Hurdle winner.

However with this Buveur Dair defection it really has put the cat amongst the pigeons. It's hard to weigh up which of the two has improved the most this season and I suppose you have to include Brain Power in that equation as well. What you've just said there Kauto, if its accurate, would mean you'd have to put BD at the top of the tree because undoubtedly Altior is very special. Geraghty must be nailed on to choose BD over Yanworth which will be like dropping a bomb into the market so the only question now is Faugheen.

Ultimately I couldn't back Faugheen even if everything went perfectly over the next 6 weeks so logic would dictate taking the price on BD now since there's every chance Faugheen won't make it. However if Faugheen does win a prep it could create a bigger price for all the others.

Tough choice.

 

[Kauto Abu]

If Faugheen doesn't get to Gowran I think you have to write him out of the equation completely, even if he turns up in March!! He needs to get a run into him to get the condition off him, he carries a lot of it. Remember how much fitter he stripped after NC turning him over in November 2015. Granted that was much earlier in the season but the difference in conditioning to the next time he was seen at xmas was like chalk & cheese.

There's only so much they can do at home. He needs a racecourse prep, and soon.


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[Euronymous]

Start of the season my two main Ante-Posts (before I got involved with Djakadam) was Barter's Hill and BUV. I frigging backed BUV for both the Arkle and JLT and BH for the RSA and any race. Starting to think I got them the wrong way round.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I've laid off my Brain Power bet. I didn't go for a guaranteed profit as it didn't really seem worth it. I just laid off the bet at 10/1 to the same stake as I got at 25/1 so I'm contenting myself with 15/1 to no down side.

Fvcking Buveur bastartin D'Air

(Saturday's race still doesn't worry me but KS's message does!)

 

[Aughex]

I'm not worried, the fact KS inside info mentions BDair is made of speed means that hurdling is the sport for him and maybe the shift makes sense, however lets not forget this happened only after AP was announced out for the season and Faugheen missed the prep. If they really had him in such high regard that he was faster than Altior(hard very hard to believe btw) then why not take him this route since the start of the season? and why did they do it now in a listed race avoiding TNO and Yanworth? I know people around here are basing their bets on inside info all the time, but for those of us that the formbook is our bible then BDair is still finishing 5-6th in the CH on his current form.

 

[gus]

Information like that is worth it's weight in gold Kauto.

I disagree. It's mildly interesting, at best. After all, on the basis of "information like that" he ended up on a loser in last year's Supreme. That "they" - it's always "they" - "hold this horse in the highest regard" is virtually meaningless and, to be honest, it's the sort of tripe you read from lazy racing journalists hundreds of times a year.

It's "information" based on something someone's said to someone who used to work at the same place a while back. It's like being told that Elsie in accounts at your old firm might be pregnant after a one night stand with that married sales rep you used to know.

I once had some absolutely genuine inside information - not hearsay as it was based on an important gallop I'd watched with my own eyes - and all I can say is it cost me a fortune.

 

[Tanlic]

If Faugheen doesn't get to Gowran I think you have to write him out of the equation completely, even if he turns up in March!! He needs to get a run into him to get the condition off him, he carries a lot of it. Remember how much fitter he stripped after NC turning him over in November 2015. Granted that was much earlier in the season but the difference in conditioning to the next time he was seen at xmas was like chalk & cheese.

There's only so much they can do at home. He needs a racecourse prep, and soon.


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Not so Sure about him needing a run. Two ways you can train them if they are not naturally lazy and he's won several times first time out.

The fact he lost once from 4 fists time out could simply have been a miscalculation on the part of WPM.

In the others he was never extended. The fact they were unimportant in comparison to the Champion Hurdle it wouldn't worry me one bit. Think Quevega

I always said from go that WPM had planned to give him 1 race at most before the Champion Hurdle and not risk the leg more than need be...it's all about getting him there the rest is just jive to keep them punters happy

 

[archie]

Watching last year's Supreme, BDA was in a decent position coming down the hill. maybe 2 lengths behind Min. He was unable to kick on the ground when Altior and Min went several lengths clear and I tend to think that the same will happen in the Champion. The ground at Sandown (and the opposition) meant that he didn't have to accelerate in the way he'll have to at Cheltenham and, even if Faugheen doesn't show up, I can see Petit Mouchoir for one kicking on round the bend and being difficult to peg back.

 

[Kauto Abu]

I'm not worried, the fact KS inside info mentions BDair is made of speed means that hurdling is the sport for him and maybe the shift makes sense, however lets not forget this happened only after AP was announced out for the season and Faugheen missed the prep. If they really had him in such high regard that he was faster than Altior(hard very hard to believe btw) then why not take him this route since the start of the season? and why did they do it now in a listed race avoiding TNO and Yanworth? I know people around here are basing their bets on inside info all the time, but for those of us that the formbook is our bible then BDair is still finishing 5-6th in the CH on his current form.

Buveur D'air was back schooling over hurdles before it was announced Faugheen was withdrawn from Leopardstown. This is from Hendersons blog sent out the day before the latest Faugheen injury;

Indeed Geraghty had even schooled him also before the AP announcement was made both over fences and hurdles. He mentioned that on tv the other day to Lydia Hislop on Racing UK so it was obviously something they were toying with for a few weeks. The fact he was given an entry and Altior wasn't would also would suggest it was a little more than an afterthought!! As Henderson remarked he has the champion hurdle entry 'for a reason'. That reason being he was burning up the gallops at home.

However it was his work and home and the fact he was practically hurdling his fences which brought them fully around to the conclusion of the champion hurdle. Look at his last run at Warwick where he met the last few fences skew ways! No point having that engine and losing ground at your fences. When they schooled him over hurdles he came to life again. Decision was made.


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[Kauto Abu]

I disagree. It's mildly interesting, at best. After all, on the basis of "information like that" he ended up on a loser in last year's Supreme.

Not entirely no. I wouldn't agree I ended up on a loser. I had backed him two or three times ew at big prices along with two win bets. Once before his hurdling debut itself at Newbury when B365 quoted me on request at 33/1. He was 16/1 after that win.

Then I backed him again at Aintree when he won at 10/3. Because he was held in such high regard I tracked a several of the horses in behind him that day at Newbury. Horses like Wait for me, Big Chief Benny, Bun Doran, After Hours and Pilgrims Bay all won since. Pilgrims Bay was very sweet, he pissed in at 16/1. Even West Approach hasn't won but has placed in some top quality races at prices and he was 9th that day. I'd say the horse has been good to me so far. I'll keep the faith.




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[Aughex]

The chronology of events makes sense now @Kauto and maybe this whole shift is better for the horse but still on form for a CH he's some way behind but that is because he only had one outing against poor opposition and its difficult to gauge its current ability,hence we can only go after his novice form which is good but they do have to improve alot like Petit and Yanworth have done. Do you know he goes to CH directly now?

 

[Kauto Abu]

He wont run again Aughex. Straight there if he gets there healthy. Pulled out very fresh yesterday morning anyway.


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[Kauto Abu]

Watching last year's Supreme, BDA was in a decent position coming down the hill. maybe 2 lengths behind Min. He was unable to kick on the ground when Altior and Min went several lengths clear and I tend to think that the same will happen in the Champion. The ground at Sandown (and the opposition) meant that he didn't have to accelerate in the way he'll have to at Cheltenham and, even if Faugheen doesn't show up, I can see Petit Mouchoir for one kicking on round the bend and being difficult to peg back.

You're forgetting how much petrol Buveur D'air used to get in that position tho Archie. It was more 3 or 4L than 2L coming down to the second last but it was nothing about not being able to kick, Supasunday literally came back on top of him as they turned in so he was forced around him turning in!! Fehily had gone for a gap but it closed. Being forced wide cost him another couple of lengths.

The best way to demonstrate what I'm talking about is with a series of freeze frames from the race itself. I'm of the opinion that BD was not only given a poor ride but he also met with trouble at the business end. He probably wouldn't have beaten Altior but he would have beaten Min and cut into the 7L winning distance. Of that I'm sure.

Min was second right the way around about a length off the leader Charbel where as BD was dead last passing the stands about 10L off.

For some unknown reason Fehily decided to anchor him out the back!! At the 4th hurdle BD was 12 of 14, still out the back. Charbel still lead at this stage, min was second tracking closely followed by Supasunday. Petit Mouchouir was fourth and Altior 5th! Fehily still held onto Buveur at the tail.

Approaching the sixth hurdle freewheeling down the hill Buveur D'air had moved into 10th while Altior & Min now held 2nd and 3rd place, a length off. Prime position. By the second last hurdle Buveur last he had taken 8th just behind PM 4-5L off the leaders. He had now made up 6 places from the start.

Rounding the home turn as Altior & Min kicked BD had taken 5th place. Fehily went to follow Min and scrape paint around the inside but was forced wide around Supasunday after he fell back on top of him and with PM still on inside of him that gap was closed.

He was now forced wide off the bend so had now gone from being one off the rail on the inside to 3 wide on the outside losing more ground.

He Passed Supasunday & Charbel in the straight.Turning in he was 4 or 5L behind Min who kept on the inside rounding the bend. At the line he was a length behind him having used far more petrol to get in a position to challenge and forced wide off the home bend.

I think it was a super run by a horse given too much to do who also met with trouble at the business end. Thinking back previous supreme winners, not many have come from last to front. They were always prominent or very handy. Also Archie I think the kick of acceleration your talking about was very much evident at Aintree last year when Fehily hit him a few cracks after the last. Himself & Petit Mouchouir pulled well clear of a very decent mare.


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