The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Aughex said:
My point was that he should be reversed to JLT like I initially explained, pocket reasons including but that was because he'd have a far easier task in beating Yorkhill than in winning the CH. In a CH you need a 170 performance to win, last year 171 to beat AP, the previous 172 to beat Faugheen, previous 171 to beat Jezki, and so on. While in a JLT you don't need that kinda of performance. BDair is a very nice horse but even by winning relatively impressive from Ravin Black, he was receiving 4lbs and was entitled to do that to a 150 rated handicapper. It wasn't like he was giving him 8lbs like TNO gave on a racecourse he hates and on BR preferred heavy ground. Where's TNO in the CH betting I ask you? JP will no doubt make the right call with him and I'm sure Hendo will too after analysing the options.
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TNO is that price because he won't win. BD is progressive. Whether he's good enough to win a Champion is open to debate.
Faugheen apart then it looks open.
 
Lets see who gets there on the day. But last year after Faugheen was out, I remember people saying its wide open while I was saying in order to beat AP you'll need a 170+ horse(I admit I hoped identity Thief would improve which I got wrong). Also I remember people going haywire for any of the outsiders saying its wide open which proved false as the first 5 which finished 10 lengths ahead of those outsiders, and were all 160+ horses.

Now, this year all I hear is wide open and a horse like Buveur Dair which I fancy for a G1 novice chase so I consider very good, but on hurdle form shown today he's at least a stone behind a horse like TNO which you and others have as a no-hoper which is incredible given that on his best form he can run to 165+ and currently there's only Petit, Yanworth and NC capable of that. If BDair can improve a stone then sure go for it and he'll have at least the same chances as the first 4 picks but with special extras like Jezki and MTOY running for the same owner why not go with BDair for the JLT instead where he'd have a easier path to victory than go against 4-5 a stone better animals in the CH.
 
Aughex said:
Now, this year all I hear is wide open and a horse like Buveur Dair which I fancy for a G1 novice chase so I consider very good, but on hurdle form shown today he's at least a stone behind a horse like TNO which you and others have as a no-hoper which is incredible given that on his best form he can run to 165+ and currently there's only Petit, Yanworth and NC capable of that
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How do you possibly quantify the hurdle form that he has shown today? You could probably have a go but it is an utterly pointless exercise.

Surely you have to concede that a far more useful way of gauging his potential is to look back to Aintree last year and go from there. All today proved was that he deserves his place in the CH field. To suggest that either JP or NJH have come away from today doubting their decision is ludicrous.
 
@TheBear you're taking a step aside in judging todays form, which is not how its done. You either quantify it or you don't have an opinion in which case I don't know what we're arguing about. I'm not even placing Ravin Black on his current 141 mark, I place him on 149 of which he was raised after meeting TNO this time last year with his cut in the ground preference. I've seen more impressive unextended wins than todays which failed to materialize in the long run, just last week we had TC who was on the bridle until he had nothing left at the end. You think that beating a 149 at his best handicap hurdler whilst receiving 4lbs is worth an entry in the CH? JP should he want to continue forward with this horse thats as a chaser and the JLT could be his stepping stone. Why reverse to hurdling, perhaps something's wrong with Yanworth(that is not being reported?!) so we could make sense of this better on the day when we see who turns up.

As for @Euro Yorkhill being better, I doubt that very much. Its like hide and seek with him, we know Yanworth would've beaten him at least 5 lengths with a good ride but his supporters say he had loads to give at the end and was only idling. But then the next runs we saw how he struggled to give more at the end and his supporters say well it was the season end. Now as a chaser, he failed to impress and his fans say well he was better over hurdles. I simply have to dismiss these theories and only go from what happened in the Neptune. Yanworth was 5-wide all around, he conceded at least 5 lengths then on the last turn Barry took him even wider almost to the stands and by the time he started to close on Yorkhill it was too late, still only 1 length given all the ground concession he was giving.

Then the final point about this being wide open. I remind people, there's Yanworth, Petit and NC who've been winning all the G1s(if Petit hadn't fallen in the Fighting Fifth) and TNO whose been winning all the G2s. Thats 4 horses at the top, and they've had it between them this season. The rest are hopeful of improvement but they are far behind on form. BDair what he did today can we say he ran to more than 150? I don't know but even so he has at least a stone further climb to win the classiest race of the season while his previous option of JLT is very much his to lose. Perhaps something's wrong with Yanworth or maybe JP wanted to see what he can do back over hurdles but even with a motionless jockey at the end, by coming only a length ahead of a handicapper receiving 4lbs in the process I doubt JP will view it as a strong CH contender, more so an outsider with valid but not many chances.
 
Having backed BD for the champion hurdle you'd have to be happy with his reintroduction to hurdles again. Apart from the first which he ballooned he was fairly ok, and of course that will get better with schooling. He was slick last year so I'd have no worries about his jumping. He needed to win like that with conditions of the race suiting him but he had loads up his sleeve.

He has also proven today he is totally versatile ground wise having won on all sorts and I was impressed the way he picked up again with an inch of rain. Last year he also showed his attitude for a battle so I'd have no worries about his batting qualities.

Anyone crabbing his win today, firstly all you can do is beat what's put in front of you and he done that with the upmost of ease. Secondly he holds top novice form from last season having the measure of Petit Muchouir twice and third in a Supreme behind Altior after a poor hold up ride. There is nothing so far this season to suggest in anyway that he's regressed, he still has the engine.

Take Faugheen out of this years Champion Hurdle which is looking very more likely and he has to have a massive chance.


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Petit Mouchoir has moved on to the next galaxy from last year, and even from his first hasted run this season just after switching yards. Any comparisons are null on that front. And no one is crabbing todays win, I even went as high as 150 even though Ravin Black hasn't shown any similar form in his last 10 runs since meeting TNO at Haydock. Yes he's still capable of jumping smaller obstacles, what a wonder, but has he got a stone improvement to even compete with the top performs this season? How could there be a choice between JLT and CH? Christ.. I'm pocket talking but with the horse's best intention as well, while some are simply thinking of their value bets only but the horse really won't gather any followers by coming 5-6th whilst connections, trainer and jockey would be happy to win the JLT, wouldn't they?
 
If Buveur D'Air was in a handicap off 150, I would back him for my life.

In real terms, he could be a stone better horse than that, and anyone smart enough to get on early, has themselves a nice bet. Clearly, he has to demonstrate it now at the highest-level, but today's outing was convincing, he absolutely deserves his place in the CH field, and he has nothing to fear from the others in the market (Faugheen apart), imo.
 
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Aughex said:
Petit Mouchoir has moved on to the next galaxy from last year, and even from his first hasted run this season just after switching yards. Any comparisons are null on that front. And no one is crabbing todays win, I even went as high as 150 even though Ravin Black hasn't shown any similar form in his last 10 runs since meeting TNO at Haydock. Yes he's still capable of jumping smaller obstacles, what a wonder, but has he got a stone improvement to even compete with the top performs this season? How could there be a choice between JLT and CH? Christ.. I'm pocket talking but with the horse's best intention as well, while some are simply thinking of their value bets only but the horse really won't gather any followers by coming 5-6th whilst connections, trainer and jockey would be happy to win the JLT, wouldn't they?
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Ah stop!! There's nothing to say BD hasn't improved massively this year either? I think last years novice form is above anything we've seen in open company this year and his novice form is very, very good. BD is the big unknown and that's what makes him so very dangerous in a wide open champion hurdle. Today was his first run over hurdles since April. I have no doubt had he been over hurdles earlier than today and competing in those G1s his OR would be a good deal higher with another G1 or two to his name. I don't know how a fella would go about marking up BD on todays performance!! He could've won by a furlong if Geraghty wanted him to. He was the dark horse for sure but not anymore.

As regards a choice between chasing or hurdling it certainly seems like your pocket was burnt very badly by this weeks decision. There is more chance of Minella Rocco being re routed to the champion hurdle than there is now of BD going back chasing this year!!

I sincerely doubt Nicky Henderson or JP McManus, both steeped in Champion Hurdle history, are reverting the horse back for a 5th or 6th place finish!! I think he feels the horse has a very realistic chance and nothing today changed their viewpoint. He could've won by a distance if Geragthy told him to. He was absolutely full of himself after pulling the arms out of Hannah Ryan coming back in, probably would've gone around again!! And with that Altior form line last year Henderson should know very well what this horse is capable of from his home work.

He's had 2 chase wins and a hurdle win since he beat PM & Limini at Aintree. I reckon it was the last chase win over Gino Trail that forced Henderson's mind to revert him back. He wasn't fluent over a few fences and as a result of getting tight to the last few Coleman was forced to draw the whip. Geraghty said after today that he was making lengths at his hurdles. Henderson brought it further to say he wasn't doing that with fences.

Geragthy has a decision to make now. I think they realise Yanworth is more a staying type and needed MTOY to act as a hare for him in the xmas hurdle. Yorkhill burned him for pace in a few strides in last years Neptune and if Uknowhatimeanharry hadn't come along he'd be stayers bound this year! BD is the new alternative & I expect Geraghty to be on his back 14 March.



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I think Bear is spot on when he said last seasons novice form was better than the open company form. Annie aside I reckon the first three home in the Supreme and the first two home in the Neptune are better than anything that faced Annie.

Based on normal progression from last season you'd think that something from last seasons novices is capable of a 170 performance.

in addition to that the Triumph form is working out well too, and we may just have had a vintage season without realising it.

As for Buveur d'Air, putting a rating on today's race is impossible given he clearly had masses in hand. Surely you have to take such a smooth authoritative success as a major plus though, and you couldn't possibly discount a huge run in March.
 
Nicky gave an informative interview to Lydia after the race today.
He was considering returning BD to hurdles after Annie Power's injury hit the airwaves; then with Faugheen missing Leop last weekend he went for it.
Also considers BD hurdles his fences so that was also a factor.
Good interview all around; he even gave TNO a very favourable mention.
 
Kauto Abu said:
He has also proven today he is totally versatile ground wise having won on all sorts and I was impressed the way he picked up again with an inch of rain. Last year he also showed his attitude for a battle so I'd have no worries about his batting qualities.
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Not sure I'm seeing that, KA?
The only time he's raced on anything approaching decent ground was in the Supreme where he definitely got outpaced at the bottom of the hill. Sure,he was finishing well but that was after a strong pace on ground the winning jockey declared as "dead" Think it's fair to say that most of his siblings needed cut or long distances too. Good hurdler he may be Champion; - without help from the ground - I'd doubt it.
 
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reet hard said:
Not sure I'm seeing that, KA?
The only time he's raced on anything approaching decent ground was in the Supreme where he definitely got outpaced at the bottom of the hill. Sure,he was finishing well but that was after a strong pace on ground the winning jockey declared as "dead" Think it's fair to say that most of his siblings needed cut or long distances too. Good hurdler he may be Champion - without help from the ground - I'd doubt it.
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It was Good/Soft at Aintree, a flat speed track, when he beat Petit Mouchouir last April so he definitely doesn't lack gears RH. Also if it really was dead at the festival would he, by your reckoning, not be suited by slower conditions??!

Also, I disagree about him being out paced. Watch it again. He got a stink ride that day and Altior & Min were turning in while Fehily was still trying to weave his way through traffic. He was held up out the back having raced prominently in all his races before. Charbel practically came to a halt in front of him in the straight!! With a bit of luck in running he'd easily have been second to Altior.


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The official ground at Aintree was soft, g/s in places on the hurdle course. RP have the timed ground as soft. NH, said after the race "Soft ground is a key part to \bBuveur D´Air"|
You're seeing what you want to see in the Supreme. I've no axe to grind, merely being objecctive.
 
Jesus Kauto, yes my pockets may have been burnt by this decision but it sounds like you feel yours already filled. Its np I wish you good luck but thats not to say we shouldn't talk honestly about his form. Really the trainer knows best, if he decided he should go for the CH good for him but him telling us he would've won by a furlong is nonsense. Geraghty asked for an effort 2 out and the horse responded immediately but at the line he was only a length in front of a good but lowly 140 rated handicapper whilst receiving 4lbs. You'd expect he'd win by 10 in that fashion so you could say yes he may have a chance in the CH. Otherwise you can say yes he deserves a crack at it and if he improves a stone or anything happens to 4-5 horses then he may well win it, everything's possible.

Also you keep bringing the Petit form lines into your pro-BDair arguments, I'm very curious why you keep insisting he's the same horse with same ability as last season?
 
Grasshopper said:
If Buveur D'Air was in a handicap off 150, I would back him for my life.
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His novice mark is on 154 already so he'd be very well handicapped if he ran off 150, but how much he would've found today is very questionable 5-10 lengths? Is he really an 165 hurdler? I don't think so but we'll find out I guess. I had him easily for the JLT so I obv. think alot of him, but in the CH there are too many dangers and he has alot to prove still, the others from his novice generation have shown remarkable improvement Yanworth and Petit, and the old timers in NC and TNO are still capable of showing plenty. Then the ghosts from past in Jezki and MTOY who could come alive in March. About 5-6 165+ hurdlers he has to get to. I don't see how thats better than going for the JLT against mid-150 rated chasers but I'm sure JP will make the right decision for the horse.
 
reet hard said:
The official ground at Aintree was soft, g/s in places on the hurdle course. RP have the timed ground as soft. NH, said after the race "Soft ground is a key part to \bBuveur D´Air"|
You're seeing what you want to see in the Supreme. I've no axe to grind, merely being objecctive.
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To be fair RH, from the main racing websites we have two good/softs, one good/soft - soft in places & one good/soft - good in places. The going stick would suggest the actual going was good/soft.

I also see where Fehily after this win that "he's as good a jumper of a hurdle as I've ever sat on". Didn't he win a champion hurdle once on Rock on Ruby??!


Also this quote from Mr Henderson himself yesterday. He does more worrying about going conditions than the clerks of all the course put together.

"I was speaking to Barry at Cheltenham last week before the announcement of Faugheen not running in Ireland that I wanted to switch Buveur D'Air.

"He likes soft ground, but good ground will be fine. It was good enough ground in the Supreme (when third) last year, but they just all got first run on him. With a bit of luck, he would have finished second and anything that finishes second to Altior is a good horse."


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Aughex said:
Jesus Kauto, yes my pockets may have been burnt by this decision but it sounds like you feel yours already filled. Its np I wish you good luck but thats not to say we shouldn't talk honestly about his form. Really the trainer knows best, if he decided he should go for the CH good for him but him telling us he would've won by a furlong is nonsense. Geraghty asked for an effort 2 out and the horse responded immediately but at the line he was only a length in front of a good but lowly 140 rated handicapper whilst receiving 4lbs. You'd expect he'd win by 10 in that fashion so you could say yes he may have a chance in the CH. Otherwise you can say yes he deserves a crack at it and if he improves a stone or anything happens to 4-5 horses then he may well win it, everything's possible.

Also you keep bringing the Petit form lines into your pro-BDair arguments, I'm very curious why you keep insisting he's the same horse with same ability as last season?
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Not at all Aughex. I just think he's a massive player in the champion hurdle now and I'm counter arguing your point, that his win today meant nothing and connections will send him straight back over fences. I think that's ludicrous if I'm truthful and I'd bet most here would agree with that.

Look, If I've learned one thing in my days of following horses it's that you'll never change the mind of a man with a grudge. Your pockets have been burnt and no matter what I or anyone else says, It clearly wont change your mind! If the horse had indeed pissed in by a distance I'm sure there'd still be something else wrong!! Geraghty shook the reins twice, the horse picked up, came back on the bridle and won like a horse with so much more in hand. If you don't see that then you & I have very different views of interpreting horse racing!!

Like your response to Tanlic earlier I really cant respond to the fact that you feel the horse had nothing left to offer if asked for his effort. It's a game of opinions. Best of luck with whatever you end up supporting.


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But I haven't said anything about how much he had left, you were the one either with a furlong in mind or now by a distance. I'd like to change my mind about him having a real chance of winning the CH vs winning the JLT but honestly he beat a 141 hurdler by a length and receiving 4lb, thats 137 on bare form, how much further would he have won? 10 lengths? thats 150, 20 lengths?! I hate speculation but yes that would put him to 160. Guess what there are 6 horses at least that on their day can run to 165+ so yes he has a chance like any other high class hurdler but do I think his chance is very small in this race? Sure. I haven't heard any arguments that can make me change my mind. JP is a serious owner, if he wants to win a race he sends everything he's got for it but I think in this case he has it covered with Yanworth, unless of course there's news about him that we haven't heard yet.
 
Aughex said:
But I haven't said anything about how much he had left, you were the one either with a furlong in mind or now by a distance. I'd like to change my mind about him having a real chance of winning the CH vs winning the JLT but honestly he beat a 141 hurdler by a length and receiving 4lb, thats 137 on bare form, how much further would he have won? 10 lengths? thats 150, 20 lengths?! I hate speculation but yes that would put him to 160. Guess what there are 6 horses at least that on their day can run to 165+ so yes he has a chance like any other high class hurdler but do I think his chance is very small in this race? Sure. I haven't heard any arguments that can make me change my mind. JP is a serious owner, if he wants to win a race he sends everything he's got for it but I think in this case he has it covered with Yanworth, unless of course there's news about him that we haven't heard yet.
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Yes, indeed you did. Only 4 posts ago you suggested that a win by 5-10L was questionable if he was asked for an effort. Go back and check it

And again, trying to mark up a race like that is a way to the poor house.

Best of luck with it.


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And again I have to correct you, this is what I ASKED "but how much he would've found today is very questionable 5-10 lengths? Is he really an 165 hurdler?" and this is what you responded with "I really cant respond to the fact that you feel the horse had nothing left to offer if asked for his effort"

Perhaps the road to poor house is trying to make stuff up from nothing, we don't actually know what a horse has left when going on the bridle. I only asked how much would he have found today? 5 10? heck I even went 20 lengths just for the sake of it. Thing is Barry asked him to 2 out and he could only put a length between himself and a handicapper. I know the horse is capable of more, problem is the rest of CH main contenders have proved they're capable of much more while he only put in a length beating yesterday against a 140 hurdler so you'd think JP would know the difference between winning a CH and a JLT.
 
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