The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Pretty much sums it up Grass as I don't think it's the sole reason but he has other doubts too, which when you add this in make him a definite no-go for me.

So despite holding a couple of free £25 doubles on him at c. 4/1 for the JLT- where the first legs have won - I sort of hope he switches to the Champion because he'll make the price for the others and having been strong on Buveur Dair for the Supreme all last season I feel compelled to side with him in this now he's back over hurdles, though I don't really want to back a horse to win the Champion Hurdle at 3/1 .

Therefore I need something such as Yorkhill to enter the fray.

Plus, after the initial awe of his Sandown victory has worn off and horses like Brain Power have had chance to strut their stuff he should be a more back-able price on the day.
 
I think the nr/nb for Yanworth @ 4/1 is looking attractive. He was that price with Faugheen in there, what happened?? 4/1 if he runs?! Filling in...heavy!
 
The way the race is shaping up I'm u-turning on Yanworth. I thought this was the wrong option when Faugheen and Annie were in the mix and the Stayers is wide open, but now I'd make him favourite for the Champion Hurdle. I still worry that he could get tapped for toe coming down the hill, but if he's within 5 lengths coming round the bend I see him out staying the others.

I'm not bothered about no runner no bet because he's unlikely to go anywhere else unless he's beaten by his stablemate in his prep and the 5's available looks too big.

I've also got 33 each way on Sceau Royal. In the context of the race and what's likely to line up his price is much too big. The times and form of his first two runs have him bang in it as long as your prepared to ignore his last run.
 
I see Jezki is to take in the red mills Saturday week which will determine his festival target. You'd imagine it'll be stayers but if he were to go to the champion hurdle it's very possible that Yanworth would be stayers bound. That was his early season target. Probably not much between the two in terms of natural pace.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Whoever Geraghty picks to ride between Buv & Yanworth is obviously going to have a massive impact on prices nearer the day. I personally think he'll ride Buv. I'd be interested to see Betting on who he'll ride. Do such markets usually exist does anyone know?
 
They did with pp for My Tent/Jezki anyway with McCoy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Maruco said:
The way the race is shaping up I'm u-turning on Yanworth. I thought this was the wrong option when Faugheen and Annie were in the mix and the Stayers is wide open, but now I'd make him favourite for the Champion Hurdle. I still worry that he could get tapped for toe coming down the hill, but if he's within 5 lengths coming round the bend I see him out staying the others.

I'm not bothered about no runner no bet because he's unlikely to go anywhere else unless he's beaten by his stablemate in his prep and the 5's available looks too big.
Click to expand...


The lack of turn of foot was an optic illusion generated by Geraghty who didn't trust the horse enough when in top company lto. The horse is plenty of speed and doesn't lack a good turn of foot. As for nr/nb its not a question if he runs in there, more so if he runs at all.
 
Last edited:
If Yanworth did line up in the champion hurdle I'd be laying him all day long. It took him until the final 100 yards to pass Lil Rockefeller at Ascot over 2m3f. And then in a very average xmas hurdle My Tent went off like a hare to set it up for him. The proximity of TNO & Ch'tibello to him would also worry me after he was driven to pass them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Kauto Abu said:
His jumping markedly left since aintree would have to be a huge concern. You couldn't afford to be losing ground like that in a champion hurdle. I can't remember any recent winner of the race getting away with that sort of chink in his armour. If they ironed that out tho he'd be a massive player.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I would question why he is jumping to one side. In my experience there is usually a reason and its almost certainly physical. In other words he's jumping to avoid landing on a potential problem. When you think that approximately 85% of NH horses get tendon trouble at one time or another, I would have it as a major doubt.
 
He is an odd type because his head carriage is to the right approaching one but he still jumps left!! JLT over a trip further than the minimum & jumping slower gives him less chance of making a serious mistake.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kauto Abu said:
If Yanworth did line up in the champion hurdle I'd be laying him all day long. It took him until the final 100 yards to pass Lil Rockefeller at Ascot over 2m3f. And then in a very average xmas hurdle My Tent went off like a hare to set it up for him. The proximity of TNO & Ch'tibello to him would also worry me after he was driven to pass them.
Click to expand...

When beating Lil Rock it was Yanworth first run of season against an 160+ rated adversary over a staying trip. Not sure what there is to learn from that race in relation to the CH except Yanworth is a tough and top hurdler.

Just as a reminder Ch'tibello was only a length off Altior over short 2 miles. The 5 lengths beating from Yanworth gives him place claims in the CH. While 3 lengths beating of TNO gives him Yanworth strong win claims in the CH. TNO won the Neptune, came 2 lengths off the `14 CH winner, came 8 lengths off winner of `15 and `16 CHs and outside of those his only defeat by more than a length came against Faugheen in the `15 Christmas Hurdle. So in 5 seasons TNO has been beaten by more than 3 lengths only on 3 occasions. Thinking that is a downfall for Yanworth can't be further from the truth.
 
Yanworth's chance will be effectively extinguished when Geraghty opts for Buveur D'Air.......and I'd say he is 99.9% certain to ride the latter, if both make it to the race.

Yanworth is basically TNO in different silks - a grinder without tactical pace - and it will be a shabby Champion Hurdle indeed (right up there with Sublimity and Hors La Loi III) if he is able to win.
 
Last edited:
Aughex said:
Just as a reminder Ch'tibello was only a length off Altior over short 2 miles. The 5 lengths beating from Yanworth gives him place claims in the CH. While 3 lengths beating of TNO gives him Yanworth strong win claims in the CH. TNO won the Neptune, came 2 lengths off the `14 CH winner, came 8 lengths off winner of `15 and `16 CHs and outside of those his only defeat by more than a length came against Faugheen in the `15 Christmas Hurdle. So in 5 seasons TNO has been beaten by more than 3 lengths only on 3 occasions. Thinking that is a downfall for Yanworth can't be further from the truth.
Click to expand...

TNO is rated 163 now. Ch'tibello is rated 149 - That's a stone difference in OR's for the 2 Length beating off level weights TNO gave Ch'tibello that you are using above to back your argument.
Whatever your opinions, one horse is rated miles wrong here! If you think TNO ran to 163 when Yanworth beat him, then Ch'tibello is the best handicapped horse in England.
But in Theory what is much more likely is that the Christmas hurdle was well below a 163/164 quality race.
 
Grasshopper said:
Yanworth's chance will be effectively distinguished when Geraghty opts for Buveur D'Air.......and I'd say he is 99.9% certain to ride the latter, if both make it to the race.

Yanworth is basically TNO in different silks - a grinder without tactical pace - and it will be a shabby Champion Hurdle indeed (right up there with Sublimity and Hors La Loi III) if he is able to win.
Click to expand...

Or up there with the Hurricane Fly 2013 win, beating 4l Countrywide Flame is actually worse than HLL beating Landing Light by 4 lengths in 2002.
 
Aughex said:
When beating Lil Rock it was Yanworth first run of season against an 160+ rated adversary over a staying trip. Not sure what there is to learn from that race in relation to the CH except Yanworth is a tough and top hurdler.

Just as a reminder Ch'tibello was only a length off Altior over short 2 miles. The 5 lengths beating from Yanworth gives him place claims in the CH. While 3 lengths beating of TNO gives him Yanworth strong win claims in the CH. TNO won the Neptune, came 2 lengths off the `14 CH winner, came 8 lengths off winner of `15 and `16 CHs and outside of those his only defeat by more than a length came against Faugheen in the `15 Christmas Hurdle. So in 5 seasons TNO has been beaten by more than 3 lengths only on 3 occasions. Thinking that is a downfall for Yanworth can't be further from the truth.
Click to expand...

And Ch'tibello was also beaten 9l by Sternrubin & John Constanble on his next run. He met Altior at Ascot when Altior was miles away from where he was in the Supreme. Shur Maputo very nearly done Altior at Cheltenham in his next race!!!! It was Christmas at Kempton when Altior started to spring into life and make people take stock. That turn of foot was electric, same in March. We had't seen that before then!! Buveur was Henderson's leading supreme fancy when ch'tibello & Altior raced, Buveur having finished ahead of him in a bumper the previous season at Newbury.


And The New One!! Really Aughex!!! If you're basing your hopes on that line of form from Christmas your goose is really cooked. Himself & Yanworth could have a right auld scrap in the stayers alright!



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Double Handful said:
TNO is rated 163 now. Ch'tibello is rated 149 - That's a stone difference in OR's for the 2 Length beating off level weights TNO gave Ch'tibello that you are using above to back your argument.
Whatever your opinions, one horse is rated miles wrong here! If you think TNO ran to 163 when Yanworth beat him, then Ch'tibello is the best handicapped horse in England.
But in Theory what is much more likely is that the Christmas hurdle was well below a 163/164 quality race.
Click to expand...

Difference of course being Ch'tibello wasn't put in the race and was flattered to be as close as 5 lengths to Yanworth. Still he was a length off Altior which some on here claim would win this CH.
 
Kauto Abu said:
And The New One!! Really Aughex!!! If you're basing your hopes on that line of form from Christmas your goose is really cooked. Himself & Yanworth could have a right auld scrap in the stayers alright!
Click to expand...

No, actually since last season I knew Yanworth was special and my question that wasn't answered was between him and Altior who'd win. They were by far the best novices in a generation since Jezki and MTOY. The fact he put to bed TNO by 3 lengths only confirmed my opinion of him and even with Faugheen in there -without a prep- I'd had him in 2nd spot so now all I'm seeing is a clear road with no big dangers and a great value bet at 4/1.
 
The fact My Tent turned the xmas hurdle effectively into a stayers race set it up for Yanworth. Yanworth was still the first off the bridle at Kempton but his stamina kicked in down the straight approaching the last.

When have you ever seen MTOY make the pace in a championship race? He was put in to set a fierce pace so it would suit a stayer like yanworth!!

If Yanworth is so special over 2m why bring did JP decide to bring BD back from chasing?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Aughex said:
Or up there with the Hurricane Fly 2013 win, beating 4l Countrywide Flame is actually worse than HLL beating Landing Light by 4 lengths in 2002.
Click to expand...

Come back to me after Yanworth has won two Champion Hurdle, five Irish Champion Hurdles, and four Punchestown Champion Hurdles, fu*cko.

Have a nice day. :cool:

PS. "Fu*cko" is the name I give to all neanderthals who attempt to tarnish the Fly's reputation - as stupid as their attempts are, they still irritate me. No hard feelings. :thumbsup:
 
Last edited:
Aughex's bolshiness and unremitting confidence that he is right - no matter how hilariously-misplaced that may be - are growing on me, granger.

However, regarding the matter of the Champ, he is undoubtedly perched down by the harbour repairing nets amongst the toothless crones, and therefore needs to be corrected in the customary fashion, each time he blasphemes.
 
Kauto Abu said:
The fact My Tent turned the xmas hurdle effectively into a stayers race set it up for Yanworth. Yanworth was still the first off the bridle at Kempton but his stamina kicked in down the straight approaching the last.

When have you ever seen MTOY make the pace in a championship race? He was put in to set a fierce pace so it would suit a stayer like yanworth!!

If Yanworth is so special over 2m why bring did JP decide to bring BD back from chasing?
Click to expand...
It wasn't a fierce pace, and it was set by TNO;
MTOY never made the pace previously as it took him half his life to learn to settle.
BD was brought back from chasing because his fencing wasn't as efficient as his hurdling.
However, don't let few a facts interfere with your biased rambling.
 
Last edited:
Some other interesting facts.

Horses that beat Hurricane Fly more than 3 lengths: Faugheen, MTOY, Jezki, Arctic Fire, Rock on Ruby

-||- The New One by more than 3 lengths: Faugheen, MTOY, Annie Power, Nichols Canyon, Yanworth

TNO would've given HF at least 3 lengths beating in 2014, only 2 lengths as things happened.. we all know the story.
 
Back
Top