My take on the race at this stage, for what it's worth.
<style type="text/css">p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 10.0px Arial; -webkit-text-stroke: #000000}p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 10.0px Arial; -webkit-text-stroke: #000000; min-height: 11.0px}p.p3 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 10.0px Arial; color: #323333; -webkit-text-stroke: #323333; min-height: 11.0px}p.p4 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 10.0px Arial; color: #323333; -webkit-text-stroke: #323333}span.s1 {text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none}span.s2 {font-kerning: none}span.s3 {text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none; color: #323333; -webkit-text-stroke: 0px #323333}</style>Cheltenham Festival Ante- Post:
Given recent events, and the uncertainty of who will actually turn up for the Champion Hurdle, now seems the right time to take a look at a horse who seems to have this race as a sole target and a stablemate who may turn up unexpectedly. Faugheen hasn't been seen since winning the Irish Champion Hurdle twelve months ago and has incurred another setback, forcing him to miss the chance of defending his title. If he is to take his place at Cheltenham then it's likely he will have to go there without a prep. race. His only defeat to date came on his reappearance last season when he narrowly lost out to stablemate, Nichols Canyon, but it would be unwise to believe his absence was the main reason for that defeat. He had won his initial start of the three previous campaigns and Ruby Walsh was probably a bit too reluctant to engage with the winner too far out. He comprehensively reversed that form when last seen in the aforementioned Irish Champion Hurdle. He will be the one to beat if he turns up but to win after a fourteen month absence, in which he has taken time to sparkle in his home work and suffered a setback just six weeks before the race, would be a tremendous achievement by horse and Trainer. According to Official Ratings he has ten pounds and more in hand of any opposition he is likely to face but those figures rely on a top form Faugheen against horses that don't improve on what they have achieved to date. For those that are a strong believer in stats Faugheen will need to bust two major ones; 20 of the last 22 winners had run in the same calendar year and this race has only been won four times since 1951 by horses older than eight. If Faugheen were to miss the Festival then it's difficult to second guess what Willie Mullins will do. With the confirmed absence of Annie Power the best of his contingent currently entered is Nichols Canyon but it would be disappointing if he left this race in his hands to retain. He has Vroum Vroum Mag, Min and Yorkhill (among others) that could be supplemented but the first named struggled dropped in trip at Doncaster and she has the Mares race as her target, Min has been Novice Chasing and looks Arkle bound and Yorkhill is currently a warm favourite for the JLT Novices' Chase and is in the same ownership as Nichols Canyon. The Mullins/Ricci partnership have won this race for the last two seasons but, unless something comes from left field, one of Willie's major patrons might have to relinquish the crown rather meekly if Faugheen fails to recover. Petit Mouchoir was the likely winner of the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle in November when falling three out and he made amends by thrashing Nichols Canyon in the Grade One Ryanair at Leopardstown last month. They re-oppose in the Irish Champion Hurdle and it remains to be seen if Nichols Canyon can close the gap. Petit Mouchoir is an improving horse and a strict reading of that form is comparable to Annie Power's win in the Champion Hurdle last season. Based on that it's not surprising his price has continue to contract and it is now a best priced 5/1. Yanworth leads the home contingent and, he not only has a progressive profile, he has a very likeable attitude. He has won both starts this season and looked likely to be stepping up in trip after winning over nineteen furlongs in the Ascot Hurdle on his reappearance in November. However connections decided to keep their Champion Hurdle aspirations alive by entering him in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day. Two miles on good ground on a flat fast track was a challenge but he showed he had learnt plenty from Ascot when battling to a three and a quarter length defeat of The New One. It's not hard to imagine he will improve on that given the stiffer nature of Cheltenham and the likely stern pace that the Champion is normally run. Against that is his sometimes sketchy jumping and, if he is on the back foot early, he may struggle to pick up the better horses, no matter how well he stays. Faugheen apart, previous winners of the Christmas hurdle have a very poor record in this race but it hasn't put off his supporters backing Yanworth into a currently best priced 7/2. Admirable though he is, it's not a price that makes any appeal. Nicky Henderson's runners in the Champion Hurdle more often than not acquit themselves very well and it's two of his entries that take the eye for different reasons. Brain Power was a reasonable Novice last season but he wouldn't get near some of these based on that form so it's fortunate that he has shown significant improvement in his last two starts. Both came in handicap company, so he is obviously taking a massive hike in class, but the manner of his victory last time out at Ascot suggests he is much better than a handicapper. He entered that race on a mark of 149 and came out of it a horse who has since been re-assessed to 162. It's difficult to believe that connections weren't aware he was capable of such a performance and their willingness to take him beyond some of the better handicaps available is an encouraging sign of intent for his supporters. It's difficult to ascertain exactly how the Ascot race panned out,with the track being shrouded in fog, but the time suggested it was a very good effort and one which elevates him to potential Champion standard. His sole entry at the Festival is in this race and he has not been ear-marked for a further prep. prior to Cheltenham. As mentioned earlier, this makes him an unlikely winner given the record of horses who had run in this and not run in the calendar year (if you are reliant on stats), but he was once described by his owner as 'stupid' so he must have made giant strides mentally to be considered a horse ready for the rigours of a top class Festival race. He travels like a horse who deserves to dine at the top table and, Faugheen aside, he is only rated two pounds below the best of the rest. Paddy Power are currently 12/1 NRNB and that looks worth taking.Stablemate, Buveur D'Air, holds three entries at the Festival, two of them over fences. He has won both his starts over the bigger obstacles this season but his flat jumping style could cause him problems at Cheltenham and, with Jezki looking a possible for the Stayers, his owner could re-route Buveur D'Air back to hurdles for this, having only my Tent Or Yours and Ivanovich Gorbatov currently representing him otherwise. He has plenty to find with the best of those currently entered but, with a chance of the race cutting up and a fast run two miles suiting him well, he could pick up the pieces. The firms that have priced up their market as NRNB have him between 8/1 and 16/1 but those that don't go as big as 33/1. That looks worth considering, even to a potentially small stake loss.
Selections:
Brain Power - 1 pt e/w @ 12/1. (Paddy Power NRNB)
Buveur D'Air - 0.5 pts e/w @ 33/1. (Betfair, Betbright)
