The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Also, like Sceau Royal, he's only a 5yo.

I watched the entire 2016 festival the other night. I'm coming round to the idea that MTOY is worth adding to the portfolio at 33/1. It isn't hard to argue that if he's as good as last year he should be shorter in the betting than most of those in front of him.
 
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Agreed, SC should be shorter than the likes of The New One and Footpad. Don't agree on the Tent though. Last year's race was weaker than this.
 
This is a comedy show getting with Do and Grassy leading the field :lol:.....We got Footpad and MTOY in the run up to the line what next?

MTOY hasn't gone completely, he can still play a role and that's to gas up Petite Mouchoir and try and set the race up for Buveur D'air and that is the only reason he is running. He is 10years old was never good enough to win in his prime and certainly won't be placing this year.

To be frank last years race was shyte opposition wise but it was fun to watch Annie strut her stuff but this year is a much better contest with much better horses overall.

Re Footpad and Petite Mouchoir Mullins that was one weird finish mainly due to the fact 2 separate races were being run......Like the bookies quoting 25/1 I find it hard to take the end result seriously. The tactics that day was to beat one opponent and what happens on the way round at Cheltenham will be a lot different
 
In the case of Footpad, my expectations are not high, but Mullins statement that he reckoned Footpad would finish ahead of PM, was a bigger boost than I was expecting - though admittedly you can barely trust a word the guy says.

In the case of MTOY, he is a 33/1 chance after finishing second in the race 12 months ago. This will be the first time he will be in a big-field with a strong-pace since the last CH. When he hasn't been running on unsuitably soft ground, he has been asked to act as the hare for Yanworth; neither of which will apply in the Champion Hurdle. I can certainly see him travelling a lot better than most, and worrying the places.

This is an average Champion Hurdle, and a freakish result isn't impossible. I don't think you can rule-out very many of them, and when the obvious NRs are not declared, there will be plenty of them shortened, and I think 33/1 to hit one of 3 places about MTOY, will end-up looking a smart bet on the day.
 
Mullins was very clear in the video chat that Footpad is going for the CH. He doesn't exactly have many options hence why Limini will probably go there too!
 
He wouldn't be offered Footpad, would he, unless Jacob rejected it.

I suppose I would have to be concerned if Jacob opted for Footpad over Sceau Royal.
 
Tanlic said:
This is a comedy show getting with Do and Grassy leading the field :lol:.....We got Footpad and MTOY in the run up to the line what next?

MTOY hasn't gone completely, he can still play a role and that's to gas up Petite Mouchoir and try and set the race up for Buveur D'air and that is the only reason he is running. He is 10years old was never good enough to win in his prime and certainly won't be placing this year.

To be frank last years race was shyte opposition wise but it was fun to watch Annie strut her stuff but this year is a much better contest with much better horses overall.

Re Footpad and Petite Mouchoir Mullins that was one weird finish mainly due to the fact 2 separate races were being run......Like the bookies quoting 25/1 I find it hard to take the end result seriously. The tactics that day was to beat one opponent and what happens on the way round at Cheltenham will be a lot different
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Doubt they could kick MTOY out of the first 3, Fist.
 
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My main issue with MTOY is that he always dogs it (note to reet; this is theory, not fact) against genuine G1 performers. But are there any genuine G1 hurdlers in this field? Something has to win them, I suppose, but MTOY won't face anything of the calibre of a Faugheen or an Annie Power in this race.

For me, it's all about how long he can stay on the bridle, and I'm hard-pushed to find many that will travel through the race better than him.

It's a race where I'm unlikely to have any kind of meaningful bet, but I'd like to have something other than the Footpad haymaker going for me. Testing my MTOY theory makes a lot of sense for an alternate, small-stakes interest......mainly because I'd be puking until the end of the National Hunt Chase, if I let him go unbacked, and he placed or better, the bas*tard.
 
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Talking of cliff horses and the Champion Hurdle; anyone who heard the RP Weekend Review podcast yesterday would have head a genuine pick for The New One.
 
Premonition

The New One! My Tent or Yours? Well at least the former has retained his form and he could I suppose get placed again
But!!!! despite Nicky saying he will run his biggest race of the season in the Champion Hurdle he is screaming out to be retired

They thought it was just a case of him turning up at Haydock and he never at any point looked happy.

On a recovery mission the new One tore him a new backside and that was that

Obviously he is not going to win the Champion Hurdle they thought.

So he was given a new role in life as a hassler and he did the perfect job on the New One allowing the McManus hotpot Yanworth to easily take the spoils.

No way will they change that plan in the Champion Hurdle IMO

Back him at 33/1 and when he's up there going well lay him back about 12 to 16 and get the hell out because top of the hill he is gone.

With love

Mystic Fist
 
I agree with that Tanlic. Wherever MTOY is Buveur D'air will be taking a trail letting the former do all his work.

I can't have MTOY at all. He's had more than enough chances, and he's come up short every time. Why is he going to win when at best he looks 90% of the horse that he used to be. Could he place? I suppose it's not out of the question in a poor looking year, but on the other hand I wouldn't be at all surprised that after the race that two or three of them prove it's not such a bad race afterall and MTOY ends up out with the washing.
 
Maruco said:
Wherever MTOY is Buveur D'air will be taking a trail letting the former do all his work.
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I don't have a problem with that theory but I don't think it's a given.

Maruco said:
I can't have MTOY at all. He's had more than enough chances, and he's come up short every time. Why is he going to win when at best he looks 90% of the horse that he used to be. Could he place? I suppose it's not out of the question in a poor looking year, but on the other hand I wouldn't be at all surprised that after the race that two or three of them prove it's not such a bad race afterall and MTOY ends up out with the washing.
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Yes, it's possible but is it commensurate with his odds?

Desert Orchid said:
I'm coming round to the idea that MTOY is worth adding to the portfolio at 33/1. It isn't hard to argue that if he's as good as last year he should be shorter in the betting than most of those in front of him.
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I didn't say I thought he'd win, just that he is the wrong price [at the moment].


Desert Orchid said:
Hard to see him winning, though. There's no place-only market, though, which I was looking for (and hoping for 8/1).
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QED.


edgt said:
The New One holds Champion hurdle key as any horse that cannot beat him is better off at home while anyone that can beat him is a genuine contender that will not be far away.
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Watching the replay, TNO was the one I had in mind and he can be facied as much as many of those around him. Other than regressing, I see no reason why MTOY shouldn't finish in front of him again so why shouldn't he finish in front of those of similar ability who are much shorter than him in the betting?
 
Surely with TNO this year they'll chance their arm and let him bowl off in front and try dictate things. On his previous 3 champion hurdle appearances he settled in and tracked the leaders, the end results were always similar in that he was outpaced in roughly the exact same position each year, coming down the hill. No real point in attempting that again. I see Yanworth this year being outpaced in the exact same position before staying on late up the hill.


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Maruco said:
I can't have MTOY at all. He's had more than enough chances, and he's come up short every time.
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MTOY's record at the Festival reads 2nd in a Supreme, and 2nd twice in two Champion Hurdles, so the "more than enough chances" bit seems a little strong to me, Paul. Any other horse with that kind of record, that was 33/1 in a wide-open race, would command a little more respect than you're affording this horse, and I think you judge him a little too harshly.

Other than that, I know exactly where you're coming from. Every time he has met genuine Grade 1 performers, he has been beaten......though it's been his constitution, not his talent, that have held him back (imo). Really good horses get him at it, and as soon as he comes off the bridle, he doesn't want to know.

In my view, this Champion Hurdle contains - at best - some low-level G1 hurdlers. Chances are one or two might travel better than him, and chances are some are strong enough stayers to worry him out of things late on, but I can certainly see MTOY travelling amongst the best of them, deep into the race. Given that there are any amount of horses who will either want to (or need to) make the pace, I don't think MTOY will necessarily need to be sacrificed, to improve the chances of Yanworth or Buveur D'Air. The two mares will need to race prominently, as will Tombstone and Footpad, and Yanworth and TNO would probably want to be handy too (though I doubt they will). I think there will be sufficient pace anyway, and MTOY can probably sit off it alongside Bueveur D'Air, for most of the race.

It's all a bit pie-in-the-sky, but it's worth a roll of the dice at current odds. I've taken 13/2 in the place market, and had a small play at 38 in the Win market. For the first time in a long time, I really don't have much interest in who actually wins the race, and these bets should be seen for what they are - the musings of someone who really doesn't have a strong opinion on anything. They are certainly not recommendations (and I suspect DO feels the same).
 
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