The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

It's a strange old race this year, and a slightly muted thread. I remember the 2014 thread, when a few of us were willing Hurricane Fly to win and losing the argument to the non-believers, who rightly spotted a flaw in the Fly's armoury. Even last year, we had a cracking thread once Annie had been supplemented. For what it's worth, I prefer the championship races to be wide open: they are proper betting heats, particularly if there's one you really fancy.

I keep getting drawn to Yanworth, simply because he keeps winning his races at all tracks and on all ground. Around 4/1 would be a nice price, too. But, like others, it certainly isn't a "strong opinion".
 
Grasshopper said:
(and I suspect DO feels the same).
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Yeh, pretty much.

It's not as if we have a type similar to Altior going into last year's Supreme. For all the talk around Min, Altior had a figure on the board that would have won [weak] Champion Hurdles let alone novice races and had been 8/1 at the time.

Everything I've backed so far in the Champion Hurdle has been about the price being too long. I've already laid off Brain Power at 10/1 and planned to do the same if the others shortened up. Ideally I'd want several running for me with no risk on my part.
 
If only they could bring Paul Carberry out of retirement to ride MTOY; give him the blue cap and leave him off !
Alas Paul has an engagement at Leopardstown that day; Maybe James Best should get a shout after his ride last Saturday.
 
Kauto Abu said:
Surely with TNO this year they'll chance their arm and let him bowl off in front and try dictate things.
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Sam said he would on the RP podcast. With Petit Mouchior a likely prominent racer too there has to be every chance this could be run strongly run. If it does turn into that you'd think it would suit MTOY in terms of travelling but would clearly raise doubts as to how much he'd have left up the hill.

It's debatable as to how it would suit Yanworth. It'd suit him stamina wise but he could find things happening too quickly mid race and end up mirroring TNO's performance from what seems like an eternity ago now.

I'd expect the front two to both be swallowed up coming to the last and Buveur Dair was only momentarily caught out by the injection Altior put in last year before staying on strongly again up the hill. I feel he'd be much more suited to the gradual wind up that the likes of PM and TNO could provide and that's why I see him as the much the most likely winner.

Brain Power has looked good the last twice but has also looked short of pace more than once, most recently when performing badly in the Greatwood. He's clearly come on for that run plenty but that's not the sort of performance put in by a horse who goes on to win the Champion Hurdle in the same season.

Footpad could be suited to the style of race and it's easy to see him being outpaced two out before fighting out the places but just falling short.

Tombstone is more of an unknown and his Supreme run coupled with a decent effort LTO lead me to think he could nab a place.

The Jezki of two or three years ago would be more suited to that style of race than any but has big questions to answer after his time on the sidelines and last run.

My 1,2,3 would be

Buveur Dair
Yanworth
Tombstone
 
Nick/Mo, My concern with MTOY is that he's appeared to be off the bridle much sooner this season than has been the case previously. I understand the arguments re underfoot conditions but it's hardly the first time he's run on softer ground.

The flip side is I do get the argument you put forward given the way the race has shaped up and 33's being a good speculative punt. I just can't get out of my head how he's shaped up this season compared to previously, and I genuinely see him coming off the bridle before the last rather than at some point after it.

If he does run a big race I'll be happy to be wrong though, because he's a horse I've taken to over the years, and I'll be equally delighted for you guys bagging a big price win or place on the first day.
 
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A lot of people thought Sea Pigeon was past it too :)

Still don't expect MTOY to be winning, just that 33/1 was/is wrong.
 
MTOY has clearly regressed and I'm surprised there's so much debate about him. He's only in the race to set it up for The Boov and is an easy one to put a line through.

Still not made my mind up yet but it's going to be between PM and The Boov. Nothing else interests me in the slightest.
 
I suspect the agenda this season for MTOY was to get him a workable handicap mark in the belief that the likes of Altior or Buveur D'air or Brain Power might improve past him and you could argue that getting one down from 164 to 154 in four runs is a case of job done. However, the fact they've decided against the handicaps (unlike with Peace And Co) at the festival points to his pleasing them in his work.

I think it's too early to say he's regressed. They got him to the Champion Hurdle first time up last season after a year off and he ran a blinder. Maybe they felt he needed a more gradual build up this time.
 
Agreed, DO.

I think it's too easy to write-off this season's performances as evidence of regression. To all intents, he has not been ridden to best-effect; whether it be due to the tactics deployed, racing on unsuitably-soft ground, or a combination of both. As you know, I was hoping that they would run him in a handicap, I would agree that he must be doing something right, to merit a run in the Champion Hurdle instead.

Both Yanworth and Buveur D'Air will want a strong-test, and there's obviously still a chance he will be sacrificed for that pair, but if there's guaranteed pace elsewhere, he might be allowed to run his own race. In such circumstances, I can easily see him out-running a handicap mark of 154, and knocking something near to his previous best. Whilst that might not be good enough to win it, it might just be good enough to get in amongst the placers.
 
Desert Orchid said:
A lot of people thought Sea Pigeon was past it too.
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No, no, no, please don't compare My Tent with Sea Pigeon, not even in jest.

My Tent, twenty races in his entire career, eight wins, none since an egg-and-spoon AW event over three years ago.

Sea Pigeon, thirty seven wins from eighty five races between October 1972 and November 1982 including this stellar nine months in 1978 (about which I've posted before on here):

Feb 4 - won Oteley Hurdle, Sandown

March 15 - 2nd, Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham

April 15 - won Scottish Champion Hurdle, Ayr

May 1 - unplaced, Royal Doulton Hurdle, Haydock

May 10 - won Chester Cup, Chester

May 26 - 2nd, Lymm Stakes, Haydock

July 1 - 4th, Northumberland Plate, Newcastle

July 17 - 2nd, Tennent Trophy, Ayr

July 26 - won, Vaux Gold Tankard, Redcar

Aug 28 - won Moet & Chandon Silver Magnum, Epsom

Sept 14 - 4th, Doncaster Cup, Doncaster

Sept 23 - won, Bogside Cup, Ayr

Oct 14 - won, Sam Hall Memorial Trophy, York

Oct 27 - won, William Hill Hurdle, Newbury

Oct 28 - 2nd, St Simon Stakes, Newbury

Nov 18 - won Fighting Fifth Hurdle, Newcastle

Won more races in that nine months than My Tent has won in his entire career.

No comparison.
 
I was just talking about how people were perceiving him as he reached double figures age-wise.

Sea Pigeon will for ever be one of my equine heroes. MTOY wouldn't be on that radar.
 
Elliott tempted to run Tombstone in county or coral cup now instead of champion after lenient handicap mark.


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Kauto Abu said:
Elliott tempted to run Tombstone in county or coral cup now instead of champion after lenient handicap mark.


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Maybe that's the new tactic. Supplement them for a grade one so Phil won't be too arsed about their handicap mark!
 
TheBear said:
Maybe that's the new tactic. Supplement them for a grade one so Phil won't be too arsed about their handicap mark!
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yes

and cry because a horse you will not run in the national is badly treated


in general irish horses are favored in the big meeting
thats a fact
 
edgt said:
Anyone here consider MTOY unlucky in any of his Festival races ?
Just asking.
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Not me, Eddie.

I thnk he bottled it in the Supreme and Jezki's Champion Hurdle. He wasn't good enough against Annie Power, but then again, he'd been off a long time.
 
Moon Racer comes here by the look of things.
Trading at 80s on the Exchange for the Supreme and down to 15s for the Champion.
 
They should run him in the Supreme and ten and maybe only then he'll finish ahead of the likes of Yanworth in the Champion Hurdle wit an hour or so start :lol:
 
Tanlic said:
They should run him in the Supreme and ten and maybe only then he'll finish ahead of the likes of Yanworth in the Champion Hurdle wit an hour or so start :lol:
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Finished ahead of him in the bumper and wasn't getting 10lbs when doing so.
 
Kauto Abu said:
Surely with TNO this year they'll chance their arm and let him bowl off in front and try dictate things. On his previous 3 champion hurdle appearances he settled in and tracked the leaders, the end results were always similar in that he was outpaced in roughly the exact same position each year, coming down the hill. No real point in attempting that again. I see Yanworth this year being outpaced in the exact same position before staying on late up the hill.


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That's not quite true - in his first CH appearance, arguably his best chance, he was very badly hampered by a faller early on, stopped in his tracks, and ended up coming like a train from miles back to finish where he did, if memory serves. Felt like he'd been robbed at the time (or maybe that's how I felt...)


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Ya, I know where you're coming from. He was hampered by poor Our Conor that year at the third. He soon closed up again tho before being outpaced approaching 2 out. At the time it probably felt like you were robbed but subsequent efforts saw the same thing happen at almost identically the same place, approaching 2 out. There was no hard luck story over the past 2 years. He just lacks a gear at a critical time of the race.


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This thread is slowly turning into a reoccurring nightmare. Can we please stop taking about yardsticks who have more than had their chance and start discussing what is one of the most intriguing races of the entire festival.
 
Kauto Abu said:
Ya, I know where you're coming from. He was hampered by poor Our Conor that year at the third. He soon closed up again tho before being outpaced approaching 2 out. At the time it probably felt like you were robbed but subsequent efforts saw the same thing happen at almost identically the same place, approaching 2 out. There was no hard luck story over the past 2 years. He just lacks a gear at a critical time of the race.


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Not disputing your assessment of his chances now, or other runs, but imo that race doesn't fit the pattern - chances were screwed by the incident on that occasion, whether or not he would have won


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