The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Grasshopper said:
I don't disagree with the overall thrust of the argument, KA, but I think the theory (floated elsewhere too) that Buvuer D'Air would have finished a lot closer, but for being "anchored out the back", is maybe a little over-stated. He basically made up his ground coming down the hill, and turning off the bend, he would have been no more than about 4L behind Min/Altior. Indeed, Altior put further daylight between himself and BDA on the run to the line, and the implication that BDA was somehow unlucky, is hard to justify, imo.

There's already plenty of concrete evidence for thinking that race was a bit special, and even in defeat, BDA has probably put-up a performance that would be good enough to go close a few recent renewals of the Supreme. He doesn't have the best form on offer, but he looks a more progressive hurdler than most in this field, and they're generally no bad thing to have onside, in an open/weak race.
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I think it's a mixture of being anchored out the back but more importantly being hampered by by Supasunday who came back on top of him as the neared the home bend. Fehily had gone for the gap between Petit Mouchoir and Supasunday to bring him right on Min's tail. When this closed he was forced out very wide right around the Potts horse causing him to lose more ground.

If you go back on this thread somewhere in Jan/Feb I put up a series of still frames to illustrate this point. That and the fact Fehily had to use more juice to get him in a position to challenge having positioned him, stupidly in my opinion, dead last for a portion of the race. How many winners of the supreme do you see coming from there?


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Kauto Abu said:
You're forgetting how much petrol Buveur D'air used to get in that position tho Archie. It was more 3 or 4L than 2L coming down to the second last but it was nothing about not being able to kick, Supasunday literally came back on top of him as they turned in so he was forced around him turning in!! Fehily had gone for a gap but it closed. Being forced wide cost him another couple of lengths.

The best way to demonstrate what I'm talking about is with a series of freeze frames from the race itself. I'm of the opinion that BD was not only given a poor ride but he also met with trouble at the business end. He probably wouldn't have beaten Altior but he would have beaten Min and cut into the 7L winning distance. Of that I'm sure.

Min was second right the way around about a length off the leader Charbel where as BD was dead last passing the stands about 10L off.
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For some unknown reason Fehily decided to anchor him out the back!! At the 4th hurdle BD was 12 of 14, still out the back. Charbel still lead at this stage, min was second tracking closely followed by Supasunday. Petit Mouchouir was fourth and Altior 5th! Fehily still held onto Buveur at the tail.
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Approaching the sixth hurdle freewheeling down the hill Buveur D'air had moved into 10th while Altior & Min now held 2nd and 3rd place, a length off. Prime position. By the second last hurdle Buveur last he had taken 8th just behind PM 4-5L off the leaders. He had now made up 6 places from the start.

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Rounding the home turn as Altior & Min kicked BD had taken 5th place. Fehily went to follow Min and scrape paint around the inside but was forced wide around Supasunday after he fell back on top of him and with PM still on inside of him that gap was closed.

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He was now forced wide off the bend so had now gone from being one off the rail on the inside to 3 wide on the outside losing more ground.

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He Passed Supasunday & Charbel in the straight.Turning in he was 4 or 5L behind Min who kept on the inside rounding the bend. At the line he was a length behind him having used far more petrol to get in a position to challenge and forced wide off the home bend.

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I think it was a super run by a horse given too much to do who also met with trouble at the business end. Thinking back previous supreme winners, not many have come from last to front. They were always prominent or very handy. Also Archie I think the kick of acceleration your talking about was very much evident at Aintree last year when Fehily hit him a few cracks after the last. Himself & Petit Mouchouir pulled well clear of a very decent mare.


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Here's the post Grassy. It's even more obvious on a replay.


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I heard that too but not sure of the truth, never heard it from the yard. Fehily sometimes falls asleep. He got caught out the back at Aintree too when he won after Petit Mouchoir changed tactics and front ran. He better be more alert next Tuesday. A nice handy position.


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I think anyone who fancies Yanworth should really be saving on Ch'tibello. He's stalked him the last twice without being seriously asked to beat him. At 5/2 and 40/1 respectively...

In the same vein, anyone who fancies Petit Mouchoir should be worried about Sceau Royal who was fully expected to beat him in the Fighting Fifth. I see King now wonders if he'd left Sceau Royal short of work last time. He was certainly travelling a lot better than Yanworth throughout that race before finding zip off the bit going to the last.
 
Think you could argue it either way, KA.

My point was that it's not really conclusive that he was unlucky in the Supreme, but that it doesn't matter anyway, as it was a high-class effort regardless, and with normal progression, he'd be right in the mix.
 
Indeed Grass. I just thought the Supasunday angle was interesting. A lot picked up on the holding ride but no one picked up on him collapsing back on top of BD when the pace was injected. It closed that gap off and forced him to take a diversion!!

What I couldn't understand was some of the lazy journalism out there suggesting he needs a bog to operate. How some of these lads are given jobs in the industry is beyond me. Just look a the facts ffs.
There's better arguments/points brought to attention here on a daily basis than the tripe some of these lads write.


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I'll say this for you, Kauto: you can't half talk up an ante-post bet.

If we concede that Buveur is the biggest certainty that's ever looked through a bridle, can you make it stop?
 
Kauto Abu said:
What I couldn't understand was some of the lazy journalism out there suggesting he needs a bog to operate. How some of these lads are given jobs in the industry is beyond me.


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I heard Segal regurgitating this line yesterday. The more I listen to him the more I think this fella hasn't got a clue. He was trying to make the case for Bleu Et Rouge the other day by saying BJG had chosen him for the potato race last year ahead of UNWIMH. This was until it was pointed out that JP didn't own UNWIMH at that point. It's embarrassing stuff.
 
Ah stop. Paul Kealy was at it in the RP too I heard. It's pitiful stuff. Hadn't heard the Segal one! That's shocking.


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TheBear said:
I heard Segal regurgitating this line yesterday. The more I listen to him the more I think this fella hasn't got a clue. He was trying to make the case for Bleu Et Rouge the other day by saying BJG had chosen him for the potato race last year ahead of UNWIMH. This was until it was pointed out that JP didn't own UNWIMH at that point. It's embarrassing stuff.
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Fast becoming to racing punditry/tipping what Dr Hilary was to medical science.
 
Just to clarify a point Nicky thought Altior was a certainty in the Supreme and Noel Fehily rode with TLC as per instructions..No maybe's about it.

The aintree race gives a half pointer to this year Champion Hurdle and there's no doubting the class of either Petite Mouchoir or Buveur D'air who had Apple Jade's conqueror Limini well beaten.

The big question is which one has improved more and can either of them beat Yanworth?

Tactics will play a huge part in the race and JP has the ideal weapon in MTOY who can't possibly win and won't even be placed because he'' be so knckered by the time they get to the top of the hill he won't get home.

The team already had a dress rehearsal at Kempton when after a few hurdles MTOY took on The New One early and set the race up for Yanworth.

The Champion Hurdle will be no different only the target for MTOY will be Petite Mouchoir.

Yanworth and Bouveur D'air need to be held up and if Petite Mouchoir the speed in the race were to be left to his own devices he'd be gone at the top of the hill and they wouldn't see the way he went or at least it would be a huge struggle to peg him back.

If however he is badgered all the way round by MTOY then he should burn up so much energy there will be less chance of a kick making it easier for Yanworth and Bouveur D'air's to get to him.

Of the 2 Yanworth is more likely to hit a flat spot and although he has managed to get there almost every time the one time he didn't was at the Festival. You can hit flat spots in trials but as we saw with The New One you just can't in the Champion Hurdle and expect to win

For that reason I am down to 2 Petit Mouchot and Buveur D'Air and it much depends on how smart Henry De Bromhead and Brian Cooper are and if they can see what's coming.

Won't be easy with Petit Mouchoir being so keen but Brian Cooper has got to drop him in behind the leaders and not make his move until just after 3 out and if they do IMO they will come out on top

If they try to make the running like they have in the last 2 outings MTOY will at some point early be sent up to badger him and burn him out.

I am betwixt and between but hoping Cooper steal a lead in the the race before the home turn but Buveur D'air represents a huge danger.............I will most likely dutch them on the day






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Kauto Abu said:
VVM the only absentee as final field of 12. Confirmed she goes Mares to take on Limini.


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There were rumours circulating yesterday that Limini hadn't even come across.


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VVM bled after Doncaster & was working poorly up to 2 weeks ago. She must be showing something more at home to travel over.


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