The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Hard to disagree with a top class jockey who is actually sat on the animal but the way Yanworth ran yesterday looked to me as though he'd relish a strongly run 2 miles.
 
A strongly run two miles would suit I agree, but would he beat Faugheen and Annie Power Bear? The flip side is he could be a class apart in the World Hurdle and he shapes as though three miles would be no problem.

King had already said that his campaign will be geared around a step up in trip and I doubt what he saw yesterday changed his mind despite what Barry said.
 
I'd be worried that he'd pull his chance away in a World Hurdle. To my eye he wanted to go at least half a stride quicker yesterday over 20f so 3 miles is only going to exacerbate the problem. He'd travel sweetly in a Champion hurdle and would be staying on better than anything up the hill. Whether he'd lack for a bit of speed coming down the hill would be my only concern but in his first season in open company I'd be inclined to give him the chance.
 
i really don't see Yanworth as a top 2 miler in a similar way to i didn't see ..the new one.. being one..he hasn't got the gears..he has the gears to travel at 2.5+..but having gears to be sat going well at those trips is another league to be sat going well in a CH..its two different strokes.

there are veryfew horses that as novices at 2.5 show they are CH horses..unless the CH has such a pace it wipes out the speed horses..i don't like novice stayers in the CH..in fact 4yo that win the triumph usually need further and the triumph is only 2m1f

its a a progression thing really...a horse that needs the stiff 2m1f new course is unlikely to want..another 12 months on..a speedy old course 2m0.5f...look at chasers who win over 2 miles but then step up to 3 miles over twigs...the two mile races are usually stepping stones...so when you see a stout 4yo winning 2m1+over stiff new course..why would you think they CH horses when the real quality requirement for that race is speed...i mean speed in relative terms
 
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Without a shred of research I reckon there's more Neptune horses who've won the CH than Supreme in the last 20 years.
 
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Many of the greats have that's true. I don't agree with pulling being a problem though. He was a bit fresh yesterday admittedly, but he usually travels pretty sweetly, and that's a big asset to have in the longer race.

I don't agree with him not having a turn of foot either though. Outside of his flatfish run in the Neptune look at his other races last year and he put his races away because of his turn of foot.

King's horses were horribly out of form at the Festival and despite that he finished within two lengths of Yorkhill. If the King stable had been in similar form to Willie's would they have reversed?

You could say I'm making the case for a step back in trip, but I reckon he'll be running for place money in the Champion Hurdle, when he could be a class apart in the World Hurdle.
 
TheBear said:
Without a shred of research I reckon there's more Neptune horses who've won the CH than Supreme in the last 20 years.
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the problem with that is that many CH horses..aren't supreme winners either

the fact is that neptune horses have won over further as "babies"..and so when they grow a bit need that trip or an overblown 2m blow out to win the CH

its a bit like a 2yo that wins over a mile..are you going to support it for the guineas or Derby..i'd be derby bound..% wise..think about Doncaster 2yo winners over the mile..how many want a mile as 3yo..very few..but obviously you will get odd one..do you want to back in future..on "odd one"

the whole game is % play...and % wise..neptune winners are slow..and only win poor CH's
 
EC1 said:
% wise..neptune winners are slow..and only win poor CH's
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I know what you're saying EC but that last line is quite a statement. It's not one I agree with.

Do we think it's going to be a high standard Champion Hurdle this year?
 
Maruco said:
King's horses were horribly out of form at the Festival and despite that he finished within two lengths of Yorkhill. If the King stable had been in similar form to Willie's would they have reversed?
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No chance. Yorkhill put the race to bed pretty quickly. He didn't do a jot in front. He's very very smart.
 
I'd say they're both very smart Frankel. I backed Yorkhill and was pretty confident. It was only post Festival I really noticed just how poor King's horses had run, and looking further his form in the previous month was also pretty awful, as it was pretty much through to the end of the season.

I'm asking the question rather than believing they would reverse, but my point really is that there's potentially not a whole lot between the two of them on their best form. If that's true Yanworth could be a shoe in for the World Hurdle.
 
Maruco said:
Can't agree with that final line Alan. Istabraq and Faugheen immediately blow that theory.
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% play is the get out M..:)

i don't care what people's boundaries are..there will always be istabraq + Faugheens..the question is..it takes such as those to beat the stats..is your choice that beats the stat as good as them

this whole game is % play to me..no matter what i feel about a type..there will always be those that override it..they are spesh..is your pick spesh?
 
Frankel said:
No chance. Yorkhill put the race to bed pretty quickly. He didn't do a jot in front. He's very very smart.
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He'd be a very very strong fancy of mine if they kept him over hurdles, but the yard already has so many bullets to fire at this.
 
For the record the handicapper had them both on 154. I had Yorkhill on 159 and Yanworth on 157. With normal progression you'd expect them both to be at least high 160's or low 170's by the end of this season.

I'll be very interested to see how Yorkhill is campaigned this season. If Annie and Faugheen make the Champion Hurdle I can't see Yorkhill turning up there. Willie says he's not going chasing, so where does he target him? I reckon he could easily have a pretty messed up campaign. In Willie's mind I suspect he's just a substitute if the other two don't make it for any reason.
 
yorkhill to me is a further than CH type..he is good..but i don't feel a CH winner

funny how we all get the "feel" for different horses

if we could all tap into the true "feel"..over a trip.....and at end of day..trip + abilty at it win the very best days.....we would have a real edge
 
Frankel said:
No chance. Yorkhill put the race to bed pretty quickly. He didn't do a jot in front. He's very very smart.
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He's very smart but Yanworth was given an extra furlong to run 5 wide on every turn. Plus considering the King's yard argument of poor shape around that time, then Yanworth comes off as the superior horse by at least 5 lengths. The form with Le Prezien from that season also adds up to this view. He wasn't fully tuned up for yesterday but still showed the turn of foot to get things done against an 160 rated hurdler, I'd say if anything happens with Faugheen then his connections would be idiots to miss the CH.
 
If he's keeping Yorkhill over hurdles then there's some serious decisions to be made. Simply having a horse like that as a reserve is just plain wrong and I'm sure Graham Wylie would have something to say about that. As much as I don't like this I'd have to say Faugheen to the WH looks the most likely scenario, along with Nichols Canyon. That leaves AP, Yorkhill and Arctic Fire for this.
 
Apparently Ruby thinks Yorkhill should go the two mile route. Ruby would be a better judge than me, but I'm with you EC, I'd be stepping him up. His best performances last year were over two and a half, and he won his point easily over three.

The problem is there isn't a two and a half mile option for him at Cheltenham, and they've discounted the World Hurdle at this stage. To be honest I'm genuinely surprised they're not novice chasing. I'd have assumed JLT this year and then the GoldCup as an eight year old.

As unlikely as it seems, maybe we won't see him at Cheltenham and it'll be Aintree and Punchestown.
 
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