The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Diamond Geezer said:
Fighting Fifth

Irving, Sceau Royal, Top Notch, Apple’s Jade, Hidden Cyclone, Mirsaale, Optimus Prime, Petit Mouchoir
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Anyone know if Apple's Jade is an intended runner in this?

Her seasonal reappearance might have been a bit disappointing but I'd be seriously interested in her at the 8/1 currently on offer for Saturday.
 
After Down Royal, Gordon said he'd be upping her in trip and keeping to mares races but he may not have the final say.

I could be wrong but I don't think one of last season's juveniles has beaten its elders in a graded race yet. If you accept that Apples Jade, Ivan Gorbatov, Jer's Girl and Footpad are the pick, they've come up a stone or more short so far.
 
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maybe he was

i'd love to know how they have fooked IG up tbh...he was some prospect..is he ailing or what..a very good horse..but you wouldn't know it now
 
Everything we've seen this season, points to last season's juveniles being a poor-to-average bunch. It's that simple, I reckon.

There won't be a Jair Du Cochet or an Our Conor every year.
 
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I subscribe to the view that you can't properly measure how good/bad juvenile hurdlers are, until they race outside their own age group. You can get a feel for how good they are, but it's not until they are running in all-aged contests, that you can really get a true reading on what they achieved as 3/4yos,.......imo.
 
i was amazed though when he was mullered by Apple Jade Grass,,before he even met proper hurdlers

something not right with this horse..on his day its awesome stuff..but then its like someone waved a "you must run sh1te in future" wand..we know they not machines..but he has run so bad it hurts me..not that much like..but it hurts:)
 
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Think about it. IG's one "awesome" run last season was in the Triumph Hurdle, and you probably only think it was "awesome" because it was the Triumph Hurdle.

The issue with IG, and seemingly with most of last season's juveniles, is that none of them are very awesome at all, and all of them are inconsistent. The only surprising thing about this, is that people find it surprising, because it's basically how 98% of juveniles turn out, the moment they move into all-aged contests. How about this for a Who's Who of juvenile hurdlers in the last 20 years, who simply didn't cut the mustard in Champion Hurdle class?

[TABLE="class: sortable jquery-tablesorter"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]1997[/TD]
[TD]Commanche Court[/TD]
[TD]Norman Williamson[/TD]
[TD]Ted Walsh[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1998[/TD]
[TD]Upgrade[/TD]
[TD]Carl Llewellyn[/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1999[/TD]
[TD]Katarino[/TD]
[TD]Mick Fitzgerald[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2000[/TD]
[TD]Snow Drop[/TD]
[TD]Thierry Doumen[/TD]
[TD]François Doumen[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]no race 2001 [SUP][1][/SUP][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2002[/TD]
[TD]Scolardy[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Swan[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2003[/TD]
[TD]Spectroscope[/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O'Neill[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]Made in Japan[/TD]
[TD]Richard Johnson[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2005[/TD]
[TD]Penzance[/TD]
[TD]Robert Thornton[/TD]
[TD]Alan King[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2006[/TD]
[TD]Detroit City[/TD]
[TD]Richard Johnson[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007[/TD]
[TD]Katchit[/TD]
[TD]Robert Thornton[/TD]
[TD]Alan King[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008[/TD]
[TD]Celestial Halo[/TD]
[TD]Ruby Walsh[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]Zaynar[/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]Soldatino[/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]Zarkandar[/TD]
[TD]Daryl Jacob[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]Countrywide Flame[/TD]
[TD]Dougie Costello[/TD]
[TD]John Quinn[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]Our Conor[/TD]
[TD]Bryan Cooper[/TD]
[TD]Dessie Hughes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]Tiger Roll[/TD]
[TD]Davy Russell[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015[/TD]
[TD]Peace And Co[/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016[/TD]
[TD]Ivanovich Gorbatov[/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]Aidan O'Brien[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The Record Book makes me includes Katchit as an exception, but only on a technicality, given the Champion Hurdle he won was utterly dreadful.

Simple fact is that top-end juveniles have more success over further (hurdles or fences) than they do in 2m Conditions races........either that, or they quickly disappear into oblivion. As I said before, opposing them in the division is wheat in the barn, because - for some reason - people still latch onto Triumph winners, despite all of the evidence against them. The race isn't for trusting, imo.
 
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Davy Russell prob said it best when he called them Rats

Not a race that appeals to me at all

Especially now that Coolmore horses could end up winning the next 10
 
your list isn't explaining the sudden bomb out of IG though....it really is like a different animal since TH..he has been exceptionally underwhelming..proper speak for.."absolute shite"..since then
 
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EC1 said:
your list isn't explaining the sudden bomb out of IG though....it really is like a different animal since TH..he has been exceptionally underwhelming..proper speak for.."absolute shite"..since then
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In this scenario, I honestly think think you have to question what made you think the two pre-TH runs were decent - especially given he was easily turned-over at Leopardstown, before the TH.
 
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Grasshopper said:
In this scenario, I honestly think think you have to question what made you think the pre-TH runs were exceptional.
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i accept they not machines,,thats it really..many horses have issues,,,then later come back..its like altior..if he wasn't a honest going forward type..then we might be discussing his demise

i don't know anyone that 100% spots horses that stay sound and continue the brilliance..its not possible due to the nature of ailment etc.

i can list loads of horses that have finished close to future champs in good times that have produced zilch afterwards..its nature of game..chance...health etc...not an exact science..the prob is when a horse puts in a spesh effort..i tend to highlight it..but that don't mean it will go forward..the whole game is a % play to me

its like Min.. i still think this a hell of a tool..the future may show me i'm a fool..but % play is he has one hell of a lot of ability

basically....we are all in the futures game aren't we?..what we need is a future template..and then hope enough fit and pass that template..equating into us being right more than wrong re that animal..recency bias will always pooh pooh the original caller..its more than the next run this game..its a % play over a number of runs..most punters are swayed beyond sense with the very last run a horse puts in..those with faith in judgement are on next time when recency punters are crying..oooh i backed it last time and it bombed out

the punter that only watches one race,,is having themselves on..its over time that reality of ability finally shines through..spotting that ability early on..is a great angle..and should not be underestimated
 
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I agree with most of that, EC1.

My main issue is that it seems to be taken for granted that juveniles will improve more quickly than other age-group hurdlers, but in my view, they actually tend to show less progression. I concede that this seems counter-intuitive, but one possible reason for this (and it's the one I subscribe to), is that they are rated too highly, for what they achieve against their own age group. The ratings of top-end juveniles often suggest they only need to find single-figure-lbs improvement, to get into a Champion Hurdle shake-up, when it's probably more like double that based on what they do as 5yos, and it's this that makes them easy to oppose in their first year in open-grade.
 
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i think a 4yo winning TH needs at least a stone of improvement...and even then,,winning TH tells me they are a stayer not speed hoss..obviously i'm generalising here

what surprised about IG was his run at Aintree after Cheltenham..clearly different jobs re race challenge..but there is beaten..and fookin hammered..i never seen such a decent horse all of a sudden look a donkey,,seems an odd one to me..and i certainly wouldn't have him as an example of "norm"..something wrong there imo

but...where this game has that + over the flat..time may tell

i agree though with your general view re novices...especially TH ones..they go in my brain as stayers when older..or shite.usually:)..but every 10 years or so....
 
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I think the better-informed student accepts that the Triumph tends not to produce the next season's champion hurdler but I'm happy to take each Triumph winner on its own merits.

More often than not I'm happy to dismiss it but as EC1 says every now and again...

Sadly, we'll never know about Our Conor. I was also fairly trusting that Grandouet and Peace And Co would make the transition but the former turned out to be ungenuine and the latter defies the logic of the winner being a stayer by seemingly failing to stay the trip against the better older horses. I read recently, though, that he may have had a problem that they hope they've fixed.

I still think juveniles improve 10lbs on average into their second season but if they're only 150-ish to start with it isn't going to help them too much in the big one where you really need to be around 165 to win an average renewal.
 
I don't buy the "We'll never know" theory, when it comes to Our Conor.

He was exposed as not good enough on two occasions behind Hurricane Fly; having had everything possible in his favour in the December Hurdle (including the benefit of a previous run on the level), and receiving weight again when beaten in the ICH.

This message has been brought to you by the "Hurricane Fly Legacy Protection Faction"

:cool:
 
on one of his learning races..he is only horse to look like beating that hearthrob of yours Grass on his beloved home turf
..as a novice..no one will know now..pure guesswork
 
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