The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

Talking about Le Prezien, and going off topic, he's vey much a forgotten horse. Given his runs behind the pair of them he's a knocking good ew bet for the Arkle at 25's.

Yes he's likely to have Altior, Min, and Identity Thief to contend with but if you take out those not likely to run there he'd be current fourth favourite and 25's is another bit of value, just as Yanworth is for the World Hurdle.
 
Aughex said:
He's very smart but Yanworth was given an extra furlong to run 5 wide on every turn. Plus considering the King's yard argument of poor shape around that time, then Yanworth comes off as the superior horse by at least 5 lengths. The form with Le Prezien from that season also adds up to this view.
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:blink:

I need a lay down.
 
EC1 said:
big gap for hurdlers re 2m and 3m..its odd how the chasers have the ryaniar..but hurdlers just have CH or WH
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The novice chasers and novice hurdlers also have an intermediary race. Any suggestion of a 2m4 championship race will only have the purists up in arms though. It'll probably come one day, when they extend to 5 days no doubt.
 
Maruco said:
Apparently Ruby thinks Yorkhill should go the two mile route. Ruby would be a better judge than me, but I'm with you EC, I'd be stepping him up. His best performances last year were over two and a half, and he won his point easily over three.
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My initial take was the same as Ruby. The way he moved through the race and put the race to bed was taking.
Which route he takes will be interesting.

Looking at whose in the yard you would have to think he'll end up in the JLT.
 
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EC1 said:
big gap for hurdlers re 2m and 3m..its odd how the chasers have the ryaniar..but hurdlers just have CH or WH
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Hopefully it stays that way, if there's ever an intermediate grade 1 hurdle run at the festival then you can guarantee a maximum of 5-6 runners in the Champion from then onwards.
 
Aughex said:
He's very smart but Yanworth was given an extra furlong to run 5 wide on every turn. Plus considering the King's yard argument of poor shape around that time, then Yanworth comes off as the superior horse by at least 5 lengths. The form with Le Prezien from that season also adds up to this view. He wasn't fully tuned up for yesterday but still showed the turn of foot to get things done against an 160 rated hurdler, I'd say if anything happens with Faugheen then his connections would be idiots to miss the CH.
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I see the point your trying to make but 5l is a bit fanciful but your right about 5 wide on the turn, jockeyship was a huge factor in that race.
I wouldn't take the form with Le Prezien too literally, LP had to work hard to beat The Dutchman at Kelso the time before and Yorkhill was seriously dossing in front at Aintree.
 
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fonz said:
I wouldn't take the form with Le Prezien too literally, LP had to work hard to beat The Dutchman at Kelso the time before and Yorkhill was seriously dossing in front at Aintree.
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Yes but the two were well clear of the rest so I don't think LP failed to give his running. Also Yanworth was again kept very wide on the turns and at the back, made a blunder 2 out and Barry didn't asked him a serious question on the run-in, he would've put considerable lengths if he had. Bear in mind he was giving LP 7 pounds. As for Yorkhill I have to disagree about idling, he looked like he reached the end of his reserves as Townedn went for home too early. LP form only adds to my view that Yanworth is the superior horse, which is hidden in plain sight in the Neptune.
 
If you're after a piece of decent form last season then look no further than the Tolworth. It's far more reliable than trying to use Le Prezien.
 
you're sure a race on bottomless ground, beating a mid 130 handicap horse by 10 lengths means much in terms of form? LP form is a direct comparison against the two, he gave his running on both of those races.
 
Are you referring to Agrapart? If so I think you'll find that the handicapper assessed him slightly better than that by the end of the season. Might have something to do with him slamming the Betfair Hurdle field by 10 lengths.
 
Hard to follow who is saying what in the last two pages, but I would lay Yanworth all day long in a top-end 2m hurdle.

He has never demonstrated he has the required pace at the trip (defeats of Charbel and Le Prezien in novice hurdles are meaningless, imo), and a turn-of-foot is not needed (nor was one demonstrated) to beat a horse like Lil Rockerfeller over 19f.
 
Less chance, EC1...at least TNO actually won a Neptune (has never actually won a G1 Hurdle at 2m, which might surprise a few).
 
Grasshopper said:
Less chance, EC1...at least TNO actually won a Neptune (has never actually won a G1 Hurdle at 2m, which might surprise a few).
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yes..less chance...Yanworth ain't no 2 miler for sure..which is a shame really as if you ain't a 2 miler in that division..you won't get the accolades..but £ wise..as with TNO..it can be ok

whole game is ruled by money isn't it?
 
Well I thought it was a little early to pigeon hole him but clearly connections are going up in trip so that's that. It was all looking so promising for this years race with Altior, Apples Jade & Yanworth looking like serious contenders but now we're just left with the Mullins/Ricci benefit fund again.
 
Euronymous said:
TNO won a shite Neptune. Yanworth was given a poor ride in his and lost to a monster.
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It was shite in hindsight, I think most of us thought WOW when he burned off what we thought were a couple of decent horses which turned out to be a Grand National winner and another who sadly lost his life running in the 4 miler at the festival.
 
fonz said:
It was shite in hindsight, I think most of us thought WOW when he burned off what we thought were a couple of decent horses which turned out to be a Grand National winner and another who sadly lost his life running in the 4 miler at the festival.
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Not any worse than the one Istabraq won, it would seem.

I've just checked back through the race. The RP analysis says TNO had [going into the race] "the form to win most Neptunes", which would suggest the race maybe didn't take much winning. I haven't yet checked back through subsequent winners but is it possible the Neptune really isn't that great a race to start with? TNO got an RPR of something like 154 for winning it but Istabraq only got 149 for his.

I think it was his next run at Aintree and then his good form the following season that got people talking about him as a possible Champion. Then again, I have to admit never to have been taken by him as a potential champion.

Just checked back through my own figures and notes from the race. I had him top-rated on the day so he was entitled to win. I also backed him because I couldn't bring myself to back Pont Alexandre, which I thought would probably win, at the price. It's maybe a salutary reminder of the importance of value.

I missed Chatterbox the other day when I did the original figures because he just fell below the threshold behind the top rated but since the field has cut up, presumably to avoid the hotpot, I’ve added him to see where he sits. Pont Alexandre seems to be the Irish banker yet they turned over MTOY today and Hurricane Fly was just too good for the best Champion Hurdle field for a generation and followed up with Quevega who overcame at least two bouts of interference in running. Much as I like The New One, this Pont Alexandre must be pretty smart. However it isn’t my kind of price for a single bet. I loved the way The New One dismantled Coneygree the time before last and I’m prepared to forgive his defeat afterwards.
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Whatever happened to that Coneygree thingy? :lol:
 
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