The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Certainly blows the market apart but I would not have fancied him to be in the first three. I wasn't prepared to lay him either, though!
 
archie said:
No but I have had shares in over twenty others and none of them has had a tendon injury that took over three weeks to show up.
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I was under the impression that you knew something as a certainty as opposed to me forming an opinion. So to be clear because you have had shares in 20 horses and this hasn't happened to them it means for a fact it can't happen in other horses? Wasn't Faugheen a sore muscle recently that then showed up as a fracture over 2 weeks later?

Thistlecrack IMO wasn't right on the day and I have been awaiting news like this since in fact I have been laying him on the basis of this. I would have thought but for poor Many Clouds after you would have heard something along the lines from Colin Tizzard " He hasn't run to form and we will take him home and check him out".
 
My Tizzard Oct Double, Native River Hennessy 14s and TC GoldCup 7s. Hope disappears over the horizon with it's arse on fire.
 
A real empty feeling about this year's festival with so many good ones already missing and this is another blow


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Ouch. Surely you laid off for a big profit or at least to ensure no losses??

Anyroads, I sneaked a little on Saphir Du Rheu a moment ago at 50/1 NRNB (Gold Cup). Blaklion is a good bit shorter and I'd be gobsmacked if SDR isn't a good 10lbs better than that plodder. I'll also be gobsmacked if San T-D doesn't prefer it to Blaklion. Can't see it winning but if it turns up on the day it will be 20/1 tops and I can lay off to no risk.
 
This has absolutely nothing to do with his race against Many Clouds SP the horse has been back at work for weeks. Every morning before exercise when pulling the crap out of a horses shoes the lad will check his legs for heat and again in the evening after exercise. No way on this planet would a tendon injury not be detected within 24 hours never mind weeks especially if your stable star. Nor would he be seen within a mile of a gallop and if he were absent the whole world would know it.

It would be like running with a pulled leg muscle?

Damn shame for the yard owners and punters alike no one wants to see this happen.

The list keeps growing I don't remember it every being so bad. I even missed that Min was out,.

We have lost nearly all the big stars Annie Power, Min, Faugheen, Thistlecrack, Vautour........only Altior and Douvan remain...forgive me if I missed any
 
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viking said:
A real empty feeling about this year's festival with so many good ones already missing and this is another blow

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Agree, it is a real shame:

Faugheen
Annie Power
Ar Mad
Coneygree
Thistlecrack
Min
Getabird

to name but a few. Of course there is Many Clouds to add to that list too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ouch. Surely you laid off for a big profit or at least to ensure no losses??

Anyroads, I sneaked a little on Saphir Du Rheu a moment ago at 50/1 NRNB (Gold Cup). Blaklion is a good bit shorter and I'd be gobsmacked if SDR isn't a good 10lbs better than that plodder. I'll also be gobsmacked if San T-D doesn't prefer it to Blaklion. Can't see it winning but if it turns up on the day it will be 20/1 tops and I can lay off to no risk.
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You need to stop it with the whisky on the cornflakes, DO. :lol:

I can't see any reason why Sam Twiston-Davies would want to get off an RSA winner, and instead get on a horse who is a moody jumper, and only appears to win when he can dominate a small field. I can't see a scrap of form in SDR's book that would have him 10bls clear of Blaklion either, and I'm certainly not convinced that SDR would be anything like as short as 20/1, given the remaining strength at the head of the market - even with Thistler out of calculations.

For me, Blaklion has run with credit in every one of his outings this season, and it's erroneous to write him off as a mere "plodder". Besides, the one thing you will need to do in this Gold Cup is stay very strongly, as a strong pace is practically guaranteed, and you will absolutely want to be on one that gets home.....and SDR has plenty to prove in terms of getting the trip - much moreso than Blaklion does.

You can back the horse right now at 66/1 for the Gold Cup with Hills, if you really want to dig your hole a little deeper. :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
You need to stop it with the whisky on the cornflakes, DO. :lol:
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What cornflakes? :)



Grasshopper said:
I can't see any reason why Sam Twiston-Davies would want to get off an RSA winner, and instead get on a horse who is a moody jumper, and only appears to win when he can dominate a small field.
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Blaklion won one of weakest modern-day RSAs and was only raised to 154 for it. Saphir was off 163 when it ran in the Hennessy and was backed into favourite to win. Even now, Saphir, having been dropped half a stone, is still rated 4lbs higher (maybe not when the new ratings are published tomorrow). Saphir Du Rheu is simply a better horse. Maybe not tougher or more reliable but definitely classier.

Grasshopper said:
I can't see a scrap of form in SDR's book that would have him 10bls clear of Blaklion either, and I'm certainly not convinced that SDR would be anything like as short as 20/1, given the remaining strength at the head of the market - even with Thistler out of calculations.
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As for my own ratings: Blaklion 159; Saphir 171 (on his best form) and I haven't checked last week's win at Kelso yet.


Grasshopper said:
For me, Blaklion has run with credit in every one of his outings this season, and it's erroneous to write him off as a mere "plodder". Besides, the one thing you will need to do in this Gold Cup is stay very strongly, as a strong pace is practically guaranteed, and you will absolutely want to be on one that gets home.....and SDR has plenty to prove in terms of getting the trip - much moreso than Blaklion does.
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Agreed. But I don't just want one that can run with credit. Blaklion doesn't have the speed for a Gold Cup. Nor does he have the class. I can see him staying on up the hill at a respectable distance behind the principals. Saphir was a 165 hurdler who was expected to be a lot better over fences. After he got 163 (RPR 168) for winning the Mildmay Nicholls said he always felt he was a Gold Cup horse and expected him to improve a lot.


Grasshopper said:
You can back the horse right now at 66/1 for the Gold Cup with Hills, if you really want to dig your hole a little deeper. :cool:
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The 66/1 doesn't come with the NRNB concession. I took 50s with it.
 
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I just think you're dismissing an RSA winner with far too much ease. Shaneshill has shown a decent level of staying hurdles form since the RSA, and for all that he has ultimately disappointed, More Of That was running a big race when tipping-up in the IGC.

It was perhaps not a vintage RSA, but I figure it's a deal better than you have it down for......and cannot see how SDR - who has major stamina, jumping and constitution concerns to allay - can possibly finish ahead of him.

Each to their own though. At least your consistent with your selection of Gold Cup no-hopers! :lol:

No offence - only pulling your leg. :cool:
 
an capall said:
My Tizzard Oct Double, Native River Hennessy 14s and TC GoldCup 7s. Hope disappears over the horizon with it's arse on fire.
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I wonder if anyone has a live Cheltenham ante post Acca left?

This news has probably knocked over those left standing.


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My original multiples were built around Vautour, and my next lot built around Min. None of the Vautuor inclusions came with the NRNB concession (you can imagine the carnage), and I'll be lucky if one or two of the Min inclusions are with the NRNB concession in-play.

I've largely managed to avoid any damage around Thistlecrack, as the remainder of my multiples had either Native River or Empire of Dirt as the Gold Cup horse (the latter of which, I'm rather hoping they have a re-think over, in terms of the Gold Cup).

I don't think I've ever had a year when I've got to the Festival with all my multiples intact. Possibly it's something to do with the fact that I always beat early (October onwards) in Festival markets, but I think it's mainly due to natural hazard. I'm fairly phlegmatic when horse's drop-out. I only get irate when a put-away job (a la Vautour last season) robs me of a run.
 
If it's any consolation, TheBear, I still can't decide if I'm cunning like a fox, or a complete chicken-sh*t. :lol:
 
Grasshopper said:
......and cannot see how SDR - who has major stamina, jumping and constitution concerns to allay - can possibly finish ahead of him.
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No stamina worries. "Stayed on" in the Stayers' Hurdle, won the 3m 1f Mildmay (which takes stamina), prompting the RP comment:

The 6yo jumped with aplomb in the main, under a clever ride, and had it sewn up from the third-last. If anything he still looked a little green in between his fences and he has to rate yet another worthy candidate for a hugely exciting Gold Cup division next season. Ante-post quotes immediately offered after this of up to 20-1 could look massive when it comes to the 2016 Festival.

"Jumped with aplomb" - also noted to have jumped well at Kelso last week. No real jumping worries.

Constitution concerns? Heavy ground at Kelso last week, one of the most stamina-sapping courses in the country, never out of a canter. Ran six times in four months in 13-14, winning the middle three and showing an improved rating from race to race in the first five of them. No worries.
 
You're conveniently ignoring the three times SDR was beaten pointless at trips over 3m, and the races where he has fallen or jumped-poorly, but that's OK - we all accentuate the positive with the ones we've backed.

IMO, and it's just my opinion, SDR has looked like he doesn't want it enough. Verging on a squiggler, imo.
 
SDR is a 150 handicapper. No chance he'll even run unless Pumpkin has lost the plot completely (entirely possible given he has Le Mercurey in the Nash i'll concede)

Naturally I'm confident with Djakadam, but it's even more of a strange market now. Fear an outsider much much more than the other Tizzards.
 
SDR is a value bet, imo. As I say, I'm more than confident he is a far, far better horse than his current rating.

I'll be finalising his Kelso mark tomorrow but it's shaping up around the 171 mark despite winning in a canter. Not many of the field can boast marks in the 170s let alone doing so head-in-chest.

Obviously the Gold Cup is an entirely different test. I accept that. I still think Cue Card is the most likely winner and I've got 8/1 about what's now favourite. Can't complain about that either.

I also topped up on BDM this evening at 25/1. If Thistlecrack was 6/4 (not sure of his price) then 25/1 BDM with him out might be even better value than 33/1 with him in it. EW, natch, and NRNB.

I'm very happy with my GC portfolio.
 
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