The Road To The 2018 Champion Chase

Digger said:
Special Tiara will still place.
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not really like last year where if one bombs he has a chance to win and a solid place chance vs the rest. likely going to be more depth to this years race. not to mention horse is probably on the downgrade by now.

even with his preferred ground i'd be surprised if he's placed.
 
I can't see Politilogue or Min trying to outsprint Altior from the last.. they a have to go for it just after 3 out and that's when I can see ST going backwards at a rate of knotts..have to agree big ask for him to get placed this time
 
I still hold the opinion that a unique set of circumstances in last years race meant Special Tiara got very lucky. When he bombed off in front all the others thought they’d let Douvan reel him in and then pick up whatever scraps were left. It was only half way down the hill they realised Douvan wasn’t right and by that time it was game over.


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TheBear said:
I still hold the opinion that a unique set of circumstances in last years race meant Special Tiara got very lucky. When he bombed off in front all the others thought they’d let Douvan reel him in and then pick up whatever scraps were left. It was only half way down the hill they realised Douvan wasn’t right and by that time it was game over.
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Been reading my mail, Bear? :D

This is what I wrote in my review of last year's race:

I’m taking the unusual step of rating the runner-up higher than the winner here, for two reasons. I think Special Tiara is unlikely to be improving at his age so I’ve rated him tentatively on my highest previous best for him. He very much got his own way out in front with the rest of the field keeping more than half an eye on Douvan and maybe Fox Norton. Fehily was astute enough to take advantage of this by keeping the horse in his comfort zone in a nice rhythm and then kicking on just as the others were realising he was going to be hard to peg back. I think he has run in one race and the rest in another.
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Haven't heard a peep since Frankie Tight-Lips gave a moderately upbeat bulletin a month-ago.....along the lines of he's overcome his setback, and might make Cheltenham.

Not sure it makes much difference if he does make it. Altior is going to be hard beaten in the QMCC.
 
TheBear said:
I still hold the opinion that a unique set of circumstances in last years race meant Special Tiara got very lucky. When he bombed off in front all the others thought they’d let Douvan reel him in and then pick up whatever scraps were left. It was only half way down the hill they realised Douvan wasn’t right and by that time it was game over.


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Spot on Bear. I love the horse, but he'll get swallowed up round the bend and over the last this year
 
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Special Tiara seems to be in better form than last year when he was much further behind in the Shloer . He is a completely different horse on spring ground -always has been.
 
Explain the run against UDS. Special Tiara is a very under rated horse, mainly because he never gets his wanted ground.
Will place in this race, definately won't be challenging Altior though.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Be lucky if there’s eight runners, given the strength of the front pair. No way he places as an 11yo.
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Altior
Min
UDS - Wont run
Fox Norton - Wont run
Waiting Patiently - Wont run
Politilogue - too slow.
Douvan - Wont run
Great Field - Wont run

Assuming a bunch of others make up the 8+ then I think he places all day long. He is a different horse in March at Cheltenham.
 
From Timeform:



[FONT=&quot]e – and by ‘we’ I mean @UTVilla – drilled deep into the Timeform data for similar scenarios, analysing the good-class chasers (rated 150+), since the start of the 2005/6 season, who returned from a protracted absence (275 days or more), post the New Year, and ran again within 40 days. Basically, assessing the Cheltenham-class chasers who found themselves rushing to Cheltenham. Riverside Theatre is indeed the outlier, as he was the only one, from a long list of 106 qualifiers, who won both on his comeback and his next race. That’s an eye-opening statistic.[/FONT]
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Double Handful said:
Ordinary World was running a huge race on Saturday and was going to be a comfortable 2nd to Min before his shuddering mistake at the last brought him to complete standstill.
He finished 4th in the end, but prior to Yesterday He's had 7 other starts over fences (All graded races including 4 Grade 1's) and He has never been out of the first 3.
Assuming he's none the worse after yesterday, 50/1 E/W NRNB for the QMCC is a huge price. Race could still cut up to less than 8 runners and could see him sneaking into 3rd anyway. 50/1 a cracking E/W value bet.
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Digger, how could you forget ordinary world [emoji6]

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I'm so heavily invested in Altior in multiples I have to back Min in the race as minor cover.

As for that timeform stat, I'd say Altior had a pretty easy race and is unlikely to bounce. in addition Henderson says he barely missed any work, and the final point I'd make is that the exception was also a Henderson chaser. I'd be more than inclined to ignore it.
 
Grasshopper said:
Haven't heard a peep since Frankie Tight-Lips gave a moderately upbeat bulletin a month-ago.....along the lines of he's overcome his setback, and might make Cheltenham.

Not sure it makes much difference if he does make it. Altior is going to be hard beaten in the QMCC.
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Is Tanlic still saying Altior is overrated and has no collateral form with anything of any use?
 
This is not in reply to what you’ve just said Granger but I heard a suggestion that Politologue had been given time off after a busy end to 2017 and they were only just building him up again.

Can’t for the life of me remember where that came from or if it has any credence.


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A lot of Ditcheat horses are given a quiet spell during January whilst they have their annual innoculations.
 
TheBear said:
This is not in reply to what you’ve just said Granger but I heard a suggestion that Politologue had been given time off after a busy end to 2017 and they were only just building him up again.

Can’t for the life of me remember where that came from or if it has any credence.


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Pretty sure Politilogue won't reverse placing any time soon in any event
 
granger said:
Pretty sure Politilogue won't reverse placing any time soon in any event
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Yeah, I’m not suggesting that might happen but it might be worth considering when trying to weigh up Min v Altior.

For me Min has produced a performance at true championship pace last week whereas Altior has simply had a superior turn of foot than his rival after a more sedate pace.

It’s hard to knock Altior but you’ve got to believe they’re beatable unless all evidence points to the contrary.


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