The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
To lose Altior vs Douvan and Buveur D'air vs Faugheen in the space of 48 hours would be a huge blow to the meeting even this far out.
 
I do not think it would be a huge blow to the meeting - Cheltenham is bigger than one or two horses - it is not like the Gold Cup in 1967 .

It would be a great shame though .
 
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Last week when Melon was confirmed for the International I thought thats Willie getting a sighter for March. I believe they expected Melon to do the business and were some what disappointed. Is there a possibility than Melon has been working well with Faugheen and they now realise they have some serious competition in BD who is way ahead of any English hurdlers and it is just the market readjusting rather than anything more sinister.
 
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frontrunner said:
Last week when Melon was confirmed for the International I thought thats Willie getting a sighter for March. I believe they expected Melon to do the business and were some what disappointed. Is there a possibility than Melon has been working well with Faugheen and they now realise they have some serious competition in BD who is way ahead of any English hurdlers and it is just the market readjusting rather than anything more sinister.
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The market adjusting is a possibility, but if any of us have learnt anything in recent years when it comes to Mullins/Ricci runners, there's usually no smoke without fire.
 
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Double Handful said:
The market adjusting is a possibility, but if any of us have learnt anything in recent years when it comes to Mullins/Ricci runners, there's usually no smoke without fire.
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According to your earlier theory, shouldn't Betbright be leading the (tiny) drift rather than resisting it?
 
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Its a small change for Faugheen being ruled out of Kempton and players in this market readjusting their position that previously implied he'll be there as its been the case every time he hasn't been injured.

Anyone imagining that the two are close in terms of ability thats why they're close in betting, or placing Melon as a marker for home gallops comparisons, would've been called Thomas 2000 years ago and wouldn't believe until touching the wounds.
 
archie said:
According to your earlier theory, shouldn't Betbright be leading the (tiny) drift rather than resisting it?
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What earlier theory?? This was my first post on the matter. And I acknowledged that it is a possibility that it's just the market adjusting to the correct prices. I merely highlighted the fact that history (Douvan in the tingle Creek most recently) tells us there is usually no smoke without fire. There was or is nothing sinister intended in my posts.

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archie said:
https://www.racingpost.com/news/new...son-hope-is-backed-for-champion-hurdle/312945

Still more of the proper bookies have Faugheen as favourite but don't let facts get in the way.
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Facts are that 24 hours ago Faugheen was clear fav on the machine and and with all bookies at a general 13/8 shot and Buv was 5/2 everywhere.

Buv is now clear fav on the machine and a general 15/8 shot with the proper books and blue across the board on odsschecker.

Faugheen is red all over and you can now get 15/8 and 2/1 Faugheen with some proper books.

I'm not sure how anyone can say there hasn't been a swing in betting in the last 24 hours.
 
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Double Handful said:
What earlier theory?? This was my first post on the matter. And I acknowledged that it is a possibility that it's just the market adjusting to the correct prices. I merely highlighted the fact that history (Douvan in the tingle Creek most recently) tells us there is usually no smoke without fire. There was or is nothing sinister intended in my posts.

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I do beg your pardon. It was Double J on the Champion Chase thread rather than your good self. Apologies and complete withdrawal.
 
Double Handful said:
Facts are that 24 hours ago Faugheen was clear fav on the machine and and with all bookies at a general 13/8 shot and Buv was 5/2 everywhere.

Buv is now clear fav on the machine and a general 15/8 shot with the proper books and blue across the board on odsschecker.

Faugheen is red all over and you can now get 15/8 and 2/1 Faugheen with some proper books.

I'm not sure how anyone can say there hasn't been a swing in betting in the last 24 hours.
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@archie - I also thought this was aimed at me, so my response was probably more robust than my norm. Felt I needed to defend myself.

So I also take back any ill will that may have come across here.

Cheers

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It’s Mover D’Air as Henderson hope is made favourite for Champion Hurdle


Out with the old, in with the new. Punters are ready to ring in 2018 with reigning Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D'Air rather than the 2015 victor Faugheen.

That was the message behind a market move for Buveur D'Air on Tuesday, which led to William Hill, Betway and Betfred all promoting him to favourite, and no bookmaker offering better than 2-1, the Nicky Henderson-trained horse having started the day at 5-2.

Champion Hurdle sponsor Unibet made him market leader at 15-8, while sister bookmaker Stan James went just 6-4.

Faugheen, who turns ten on New Year's Day, drifted to a general 2-1, with 5-2 offered in a place.

Rupert Adams of Hills said: "Buveur D'Air is now significantly a worse result than Faugheen. It has been the weight of money over the last 72 hours that has forced him down to 15-8 from 5-2."

Paddy Power spokesman Paul Binfield said: "Faugheen still heads our market at 13-8 but punters on Tuesday forced Buveur D'Air into 15-8 from 9-4."

Coral still have Faugheen favourite at 6-4, spokesman David Stevens saying: "We saw bits and pieces for Buveur D'Air at the start of play today which prompted a cut to 2-1 from 5-2, but the support hasn't been forthcoming all day.

"At this stage, with no negative reports coming through on Faugheen, we're happy to be top price about the reigning champion while keeping the 2015 winner onside."


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Possibility TNO goes to Kempton for the Xmas hurdle. If BD scares them away and race cuts up he does according to NTD. Every chance he does as race was reopen until tomorrow morning am due to lack of entries.


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Kauto Abu said:
Possibility TNO goes to Kempton for the Xmas hurdle. If BD scares them away and race cuts up he does according to NTD. Every chance he does as race was reopen until tomorrow morning am due to lack of entries.


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What are the rest of the entries? Anything of note? Still trying and learning to save websites and links where I can find this info rather than being a pain asking.
 
Race is open to entries until this morning DJ as there was a poor initial entry. Powers have BD, defi, Tent, TNO, Melon VVM in their betting for it but I'd say tent, melon & vvm wont run.
 
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BDair, Chesterfield, Elgin, Mohaayed, OG, TNO
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If they both win easy until Chelt, I think we're going to have the smallest field in the CH since its inception years..
 
Elgin runs Saturday at Ascot so he wont feature. They'll surely throw TNO in now. I hope the do, otherwise it's Newcastle all over again. In saying that BD could destroy TNO around Kempton.
 
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