The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
I should clarify, I time from jumping the first flight.

From there I have the Supreme jumping the second flight two seconds (the clock I use doesn't do fractions/decimal points but it will even itself out over a race) ahead.

Third: Supreme one second ahead

Fourth: still one second ahead

Fifth: still one second ahead

Sixth: level

Seventh: Supreme a second in front again

Eighth: level

Line: level


I'll try again using a different video source to see if it throws up different readings.
 
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I do the same and you're correct Maurice. I also had the first two rated particularly highly coming into the Festival, so I see the Supreme as confirming those ratings. They are both smart, but I want to see them both confirm this on good to soft. The first 9 home can be followed depending on where they're targeted.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Can't get my head around Summerville Boy, couldn't win a couple of Novice Hurdles at Cheltenham in Nov and Dec then goes and wins the supreme!
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He lost the race behind Western Ryder in the first 400 yards Tiggers. Nothing wants to go on and he's mad keen even after jumping the first hurdle.

Compare that to Sandown when the Nicholls horse set a real clip and Summerville Boy's light frame appeared to relish the fast pace and testing ground. Two things he was sure to get last Tuesday.
 
Exactly that Lee. He wants a strongly run stiff two miles. Perfect for the Supreme, and also for a Champion Hurdle next season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Having said that, as I said before, I think the Supreme runners established their form in that kind of ground through the winter whereas it probably compromised most of the CH field.
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The one exception being Sharjah who travelled well throughout but just couldn't finish his effort when in contention in the straight. He isn't quoted in the CH market but will be a price at Punchestown hopefully on way better ground.
 
Euronymous said:
The one exception being Sharjah who travelled well throughout but just couldn't finish his effort when in contention in the straight. He isn't quoted in the CH market but will be a price at Punchestown hopefully on way better ground.
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Yes. Rest assured, Euro, I haven't forgotten about him. For a horse who allegedly cannot put one leg in front of another in soft ground he ran with immense promise last week. (Jeeeezo... it is a week already!!)
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't yet done a one-on-one comparison with Buveur D'Air but I suspect SB went from two out to the line five lengths faster before taking those mistakes into account.
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SB v BDA, timed from the first flight:

Flight 2: SB (despite being in the second half of the field) 2 sec ahead.

Flight 3: Level

Flight 4: SB 1 sec ahead again

Flight 5: SB still 1 sec ahead

Flight 6: Level again

Flight 7: SB 1 sec ahead again

Flight 8: Level

W Post: Level

So, SB despite being in the rearward group through the first third-half of the race was never behind BDA who was never further back than at the first flight. Then from two out to the last, when BDA was disputing the lead and involved in a hard-driven tussle with Melon for the lead, he only made one second on SB despite the latter losing six lengths and momentum with a bad mistake at that second-last flight. Both completed the run-in in the same time despite Summerville Boy losing half-a-length and momentum at the last.

I'm really finding it very hard to get away from the conclusion that Summerville Boy is a very high class novice, certainly in those conditions.
 
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