I am accused of opening my gob and thinking later........I study facts before I post and wish some would do the same instead of just throwing snide remarks around
Grassy wtf is that crap 18.5 JC on Betfair? That is his exchange price an exchange that if you bet on and the horse does not run you loses your money and if he wins you pay commission.
On The Betfair Sportsbook you can have 21 nrnb no commission and on Bet 265 you can have 34....seems like your the one who opens his gob and doesn't think.
Whatsmore between You JC Do Cliffs of Dover and Danny CML putting up horses that need to defy gravity to get placed is nonsense and shows a huge lack of understanding of what it takes to be placed in a CH
There approx prices have been between 50 and 80
Can I ask you guys when is the last time a 50/1 shot was placed in a Champion Hurdle.........4 places not 3..........Captain Cee Bee was 5th Khyber King was 5th or 6th.
The closest was a real good group horse Thousand Stars not a 2 bit handicapper who went off at 33/1 and finished 4th but without the fav 9/1......a 20 quid stake on him cost 40 pounds = 25 quid profit.....lot more profitable way than waiting 10 years to pull that one off at 40 quid a year 400 quid to win 25 quid by fook that's smart :lol:
A couple of points Tanlic not that I'm that bothered one way or the other with differences in approach which is all it boils down to.
When was the last time a 50/1 shot was placed is the wrong question to ask because your talking about SP on the day not what price the placed horses were available at Ante-post. I saw on a betfair advert recently that Boover was matched at 230/1 to win last years champion hurdle at some point. God knows what prices horses like Punjabi, Katchit, Hardy Eustace, HorslaoiIII were ante-post Tanlic those were big priced WINNERS never mind placed horses, on the day just off the top of my head and I dare say they were all available at double their SPs at least ante-post. Elgin, If he'd have been amongst the entries before yesterday would have been 50/1 + but on the basis of winning a Kingwell he's now much shorter if entered. In fact he's as low as 6/1 in the market without BD.
A couple of weeks ago when I was saying that Call me Lord should he win the Kingwell would be a much shorter price than what I'd taken you scoffed and said a Kingwell didn't mean ****.
Call me Lord came up well short yesterday and as such won't run therefore I get my dough back as was the point. If he had of won the Kingwell yesterday based on how Elgins has been priced I took the majority of the bet at 25/1 without BD with no risk attached. I'd be sitting on a rather large bet at 25/1 1/4 odds 3 places about a 6/1 poke. It didn't work out this time but no harm done.
I too have backed Ch'tibello and John Constable in the same market although not to as large stakes. The market IMO was there to be attacked on a NRNB basis. When you have Faugheen at the head of affairs who has had his problems and is by no means certain to make it or run to form if he does. MTOY who hasn't been seen since early in the season and is now 11. Yorkhill, Min, Apples Jade all short prices in the market and you wouldn't think they'd be turning up as well as a host of others.
I don't know where you get your information on about JC not running Evan Willilams before the Contenders said he needed to get a run into him before the Champion but he didn't expect too much because whatever he did on the day the horse he feels comes alive on better ground. I have no arguments that he might not be good enough but I'm certainly with Grassy on he's a fair shout to pick up a place at the price he got and I've had a bit at 33's and a bit at 25's without Boover.
If I was asked straight out today what I think will finish second in the CH then I'd probably side with Melon, do I think there is much value in his price ? Not really.
I don't mind your approach and how you do things that's fine but to suggest that others are clueless because they have a different approach to the game is just plain wrong. Whether your the guy that lumps on the Istabraq, Quevaga, Big Bucks ever year or your the guy who occasionally hits the Punjabi's or a big priced handicap winner we all have ups and downs with both approach's.
I'm not the best punter in the world far from it but I certainly wouldn't be the worst and I certainly wouldn't be completely clueless or have a lack of understanding to what it takes to be placed in a Champion hurdle.
In fairness comparisons with other years don't even bare thinking about as Imo Without Boover this race is a pile of crap (with due respect that Faugheen once wasn't) but its summed up by nothing more than the Irish Champion Hurdle was won by a staying hurdler and the English trials that Boover hasn't contested have been dominated by 2 old horses who couldn't win a Champion Hurdle in there prime in serveral attempts.
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