The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
The two time Champion Hurdler up close & personal.
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I'm still working on some figures for day one but I'm coming down to the idea that Buveur D'Air was well off his best form - and probably didn't need to be near it - to win the Champion Hurdle.

Comparative times and sectionals with the Supreme suggest the form is not much better than the novices' race. The proximity of Mick Jazz doesn't help.

I think the ground has probably been much more of a leveller in the Champion than in the Supreme. In the latter, the principals had carved out their reputations in midwinter ground whereas BDA had been seeing off weaker opposition in duff races.

It reminded me a wee bit of Rooster Booster being all out in heavy ground at Sandown to see of the mudlover Self Defense who was a vastly inferior animal.

We can all but put a line through the Champion form I reckon.
 
Hard to believe but if the likes of Samcro heads elsewhere next year we could end up with a 3 times winner of the Champion Hurdle just for turning up.

Because of the ground he's made semi hard work of things but on a better surface he's probably/most likely beat Lemon much easier.

So what on earth apart from physical ailments or the like is going to stop him next year?
 
Melon should have taken him this year but he's as soft as the fruit he's named after. The Supreme was a better race this year and Laurina wouldn't be out of it.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm still working on some figures for day one but I'm coming down to the idea that Buveur D'Air was well off his best form - and probably didn't need to be near it - to win the Champion Hurdle.

Comparative times and sectionals with the Supreme suggest the form is not much better than the novices' race. The proximity of Mick Jazz doesn't help.

I think the ground has probably been much more of a leveller in the Champion than in the Supreme. In the latter, the principals had carved out their reputations in midwinter ground whereas BDA had been seeing off weaker opposition in duff races.

It reminded me a wee bit of Rooster Booster being all out in heavy ground at Sandown to see of the mudlover Self Defense who was a vastly inferior animal.

We can all but put a line through the Champion form I reckon.
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Totally agree. Melon has run a stone way above of anything we've seen before. Interestingly well backed last week but layed to bits for the Irish equivalent, which surely would have given him a better chance of winning.
 
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I got the impression the Supreme had a handicap's, here we come, look about it.

If there's a danger to Buveur D'air it is surely Laurina

Mullins said way back Melon could win an Arkle and when you think about it what else does he have?

Can't see him sending the mare chasing
 
Tanlic said:
I got the impression the Supreme had a handicap's, here we come, look about it.
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Ignoring the ground I took the opposite view Tanlic. And having done my numbers since the Festival I'm convinced the first two are very smart, and I'll also be watching the next four home with interest next season. The three after that could also be interesting if popping up in a handicap on better ground. I reckon that's going to turn out to be a smart Supreme.
 
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Maruco said:
Ignoring the ground I took the opposite view Tanlic. And having done my numbers since the Festival I'm convinced the first two are very smart, and I'll also be watching the next four home with interest next season. The three after that could also be interesting if popping up in a handicap on better ground. I reckon that's going to turn out to be a smart Supreme.
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I haven't finalised my figures yet but my initial calcs are saying the same as you, Maruco. My calcs tell me there wasn't a stage in the entire race where the Supreme runners were behind the CH runners. They got to the second flight ten lengths ahead of the CH field and weren't fully hauled back until after the second last.

And that's not yet taking into account that Summerville Boy lost ground and momentum at both those last two flights. I haven't yet done a one-on-one comparison with Buveur D'Air but I suspect SB went from two out to the line five lengths faster before taking those mistakes into account.

Having said that, as I said before, I think the Supreme runners established their form in that kind of ground through the winter whereas it probably compromised most of the CH field.
 
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The champion hdl field we're nearly 2 seconds slower to the first flight, they then made up 3 seconds to the 2nd, an increase to almost another at the 3rd, they then eased down a tad by half a second to the 4th, an injection to the 5th saw them up by a second again...the top speed run to the 6th was identical in both races which had to be harder for the champion hurdlers, harder because they'd gone faster, and harder because they were up again by the time they jumped the second last, and harder because they carried more weight...the up hill run to the line saw them drop half a second....the times we're almost level at the line...in my opinion; the Supreme field would have suffered at the pace of the Champion and the Supreme principals would need to improve considerably to complete.
 
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