The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
Diamond Geezer

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
13,884
For those who may want to take a view, Defi Du Seuil staying over hurdles according to Hobbs. Currently 8/1.
 
McManus should be able to keep them comfortably apart pre-Cheltenham, granger. Keep Defi on stiff tracks, and let BDA run in Fighting Fifth, Xmas Hurdle and Kingwell, en-route to Cheltenham.
 
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Not for me, he's obviously good but I just can't get it out of my head that we tend to overrate Triumph winners year after year.
 
I'm usually dismissive of juvenile hurdlers graduating into open company myself, Tiggers, but every so often, one comes along that makes you take note. Jair Du Cochet and Our Conor would be examples over the last 20 years, and I reckonf Defi is in that kind of bracket class-wise.

Think you also have to take into account the relative weakness of the division (probably BDA apart), and the seeming lack of any superstars emerging from the non-juvenile novice ranks. Defi's course form can't really be ignored either.
 
Did think about that, but I'm not sure Hobbs would be keen to run him under (likely) top-weight in a competitive handicap, first time up. Whilst I think DDS is a really robust sort who stands his racing well, he is still only a juvenile, and they might baulk a little at taking on battle-hardened handicappers so soon.
 
Didn't Hobbs send TH winner Detroit City to the Greatwood first up in his second season? He had a great campaign until the wheels came off in the CH.
 
Bula or whatever it is known as now will prob come under consideration too - he could be a Cheltenham specialist hence my thinking around the Greatwood

Similar to you Nick, I traditionally oppose Juveniles but this guy has a bit of battling spirit to him and a touch of class
 
Len Madeiros said:
Didn't Hobbs send TH winner Detroit City to the Greatwood first up in his second season? He had a great campaign until the wheels came off in the CH.
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Yep......but Defi rated some 9lbs higher than Detroit City was at the end of his juvenile season. Might make a difference, you'd think.
 
DC beat a small field in the Greatwood too and it wasn't really his first run of the season as he'd won the Ces a month earlier. The Greatwood is a harder race to win nowadays.
 
Stuart Riley in RP

We may be in the midst of the Flat season but John Constable appears a genuine Stan James Champion Hurdle contender after running away with the Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen.

Dai Walters' six-year-old made light work of the 16lb hike for his sensational Swinton Hurdle success, pulling two and a half lengths clear of well-fancied Red Tornado, with the similarly well supported Kapstadt a further two lengths back in third.

What made this handicap-winning performance that of a bona fide Champion Hurdle contender was the fact he did it off a mark of 150. Since 2010 a mark of 150 has been defied just 17 times in valuable British handicap hurdles. The likes of Menorah, Ashkazar, Overturn, Celestial Halo (twice), Any Given Day, Zarkandar (twice), Cape Tribulation, Melodic Rendezvous, Saphir Du Rheu, Whisper, Purple Bay, Silsol (twice), Irving and Arctic Fire proving the calibre of horse required for such a feat.
Something like the Fighting Fifth has to be on the agenda for John Constable after this as his days as a handicapper look over.

He is a credit to Evan Williams' patience, the trainer keeping the faith despite a disappointing run of nine consecutive defeats, with a gelding operation in the middle for good measure. Now that John Constable has come right, the trainer is in for a fun winter.
 
I suppose he could go up to 160 for Saturday (I expect 158) which would put him in the mix but he'd still be a bit of a longshot at that rating.

I'm just annoyed at the way he's winning now after the number of times I punted him following his excellent second to Sternrubin in the Gerry Fielden two years ago :(
 
John Constable is surely going to be hammered for winning a couple of poorly-contested (albeit quite valuable) races during the summer. I absolutely can't have it that he is a serious Champion Hurdle contender, and I'd go so far as to say he will be the worst-handicapped horse in the country, if he goes up to anything like 160.
 
He won't be winning the CH anyway if he goes to The Fighting Fifth [emoji3]


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As far a JP's go I suppose 2 heads are better than one. Mullins had 3, any of which could have won with luck, and Ruby ended up on Footpad.

I a perfect world one would go Champion the other Arkle but 2 mile chasing opportunities may not be that great over the next couple of years with either Douvan and Altior likely to rule the roost if he returns.

Defi may well win an Arkle but what about the next season?.....the big 2 stay sound he'd be running for place money.
 
Grasshopper said:
John Constable is surely going to be hammered for winning a couple of poorly-contested (albeit quite valuable) races during the summer. I absolutely can't have it that he is a serious Champion Hurdle contender, and I'd go so far as to say he will be the worst-handicapped horse in the country, if he goes up to anything like 160.
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That RP report is on a par with Steve Mullins saying the yard must mean business they have booked Davy Russell DUH!!!!Be interesting to see how much he goes up but it's not going to be much less than 10lbs . Purple Bay hacked up in the race and he got raised a stone won the Elite Hurdle which ended his winning ways and with nowhere to go he ended up wasting his time chasing Faugheen round Kempton along with your old pal Blue Heron.

We went through this shyte with Brainpower last season when people start thinking these horses win ordinary races easily,he sums get done and suddenly the 50/1 for the CH is value........try 5000/1 which would be more realistic. He'd be 50 on Betfair if he met the likes of Defi in the Fighting Fifth,,,,,,,,,Nice horse got a great ride but a CH contender.?.......fookin nuts is all I can say
 
Not convinced the comparison with Brain Power is at all valid, as he won a proper handicap hurdle; which isn't how I would describe either the Swinton or Summer Hurdles.

Generally though, I agree, and I'm always happy to oppose anything which showed lots of apparent improvement over the summer/autumn, when they start carrying stopping-weights in competitive winter handicaps.
 
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