The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
reet hard said:
Which will prove exactly SFA
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Of course it will. We wont know tho until Geraghty decides by how much he wants to destroy TNO by. If he lets the horse do his thing there could be a situation where BD destroys a 163 rated horse surpassing Faugheen's rating and suddenly it's Faugheen who needs to improve to win a champion hurdle.

It's more probable BD rating inflates beating a 163 rated horse than Faugheen beating 152 rated campeador or 153 Cilaos Emery. BD could possibly be the highest rated hurdler in the business by handing out a thrashing to TNO so it could prove a lot.
 
Thats a possibility @KA, but very unlikely BDair is a mid 170 horse, he only beat 5 lengths MTOY on his best outing. Yes he's bound to improve but needs to show it first, right now we don't know if he has. When Faugheen smashed TNO 2 years ago at Kempton Timeform rated him 150+ for the performance. Imagine if Ruby had let Faugheen go, he would've still only been rated 160+.. Besides, TNO had a run only couple of days ago, this race wasn't in anyone's plans so not sure what TNO we'll get after just having a hard race.

There's not much he can do to achieve that high rating until meeting Faugheen I'm afraid, and the reverse is true.
 
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Aughex said:
Thats a possibility @KA, but very unlikely BDair is a mid 170 horse, he only beat 5 lengths MTOY on his best outing. Yes he's bound to improve but needs to show it first, right now we don't know if he has. When Faugheen smashed TNO 2 years ago at Kempton Timeform rated him 150+ for the performance. Imagine if Ruby had let Faugheen go, he would've still only been rated 160+.. Besides, TNO had a run only couple of days ago, this race wasn't in anyone's plans so not sure what TNO we'll get after just having a hard race.

There's not much he can do to achieve that high rating until meeting Faugheen I'm afraid, and the reverse is true.
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I think BD is a mid 170s horse myself Aughex and will prove that this season. He beat Tent by 5L with a Mickey Mouse race for his prep and was going away at the line. It was his 2nd ever race in open company and he’d been jumping fences prior to that, hardly an ideal prep to run in and win the biggest race of his life!!!

It’s not impossible to think he’ll be raised 2-3 pounds if he wins with authority next Tuesday. He’s not beating an Irving in the low 150s and considering his trainer said he’d improve from Newcastle in terms of fitness and his jockey remarked he felt he had physically improved and strengthened this year, a bump up on his official would hardly be shocking considering!! It’s expected.

Regarding TNO, he done the exact same thing last year, turning out quickly after Cheltenham and ran 2nd after winning the International and again when MTOY beat him a half length in the xmas hurdle he had just run the previous week when he beat Zarkandar so he has form at turning out quickly and acquitting himself admirably. I have no doubts you’ll see the same again. He is nothing but consistent and a good yardstick. If anything with the kissing spine operation he seems to have improved in the jumping department this season too.

If BD does what I think he’ll do on Tuesday it will be impossible for the handicapper to ignore it.


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Well DJ..Hurry Henry wasn't scared when he took on Buveur Dair and finished stone last but picked up a few grand for doing so......since then he was beaten 24 lengths 4/6 and pulled up 4 times Duh!!!! Horse shouldn't be allowed within 5 miles of a Champion Hurdle trial

A limited handicap might draw slightly better opposition but the question is do they want to?

Sandown Kelso Haydock and Newcastle probably couldn't care less as long as one star turns up for their CH trials and draws the crowds in
 
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@KA, TNO had 16 days to recover until last year's Xmas Hurdle, now he only has 10. Also he comes from a particular hard race against MTOY who he dispatched with ease last year in the Bula giving him 8lbs, now he got beat by him in the same race with only 6lbs concession. The kissing spine treatment he had 2 years ago and probably followed the same treatment couple of times but hasn't got any better, his figures show that the years gone by he went from a high 160s to the lows 160s.

TNO's not getting any younger and 10 days apart is only a shot to reach the million in prize money, rather than arriving at his best to win the race. Like I said, when he was near his best against Faugheen in the 2015 Xmas Hurdle the handicappers at Timeform rated him 140 and Faugheen 150+ for a easy 7 lengths win. BDair hasn't won anything by more than 5 lengths, his style is to cruise and pounce, what makes you think he'll do it now is not based on what we know up to now. If BDair beats Faugheen by 5 lengths then yes he'll be raised to mid 170 depending on will happen in behind but beating TNO won't give any judge a reason to raise his current mark.
 
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He’s not getting any younger Aughex but then again who is? Me referencing his past 2 attempts at the International & Xmas Hurdle in quick succession were clearly to demonstrate that the horse has attempted it before without ill failing or letting himself down and until he does fail, or there’s evidence to suggest that old age is affecting him, then all the evidence suggests that he is more than capable of running up to his very best. If he was showing signs of Cheltenham affecting him at hone for instance I’m sure the Twisties,who adore him, wouldn’t dream of turning him out again so soon.

Also if NTD was so eager to hit the 1 million mark with TNO he’d surely head for Haydock in January where the horse is on for a 4 in a row and much more prize money for a first place finish than chasing the Buv around for 2nd. Obviously NTD thinks TNO deserves a rematch against the champ and feels he can maybe even win.

I agree with you than BD hasn’t been allowed to win by anything more than a couple of lengths but his most impressive win was in a CH under the circumstances. Strange & all as it might sound I think better opposition will bring more impressive winning distances out of BD. He won by 5L @ Chelt and he won by 5L eased down @ Aintree under hands and heels. Barry Geraghty will decide how much he wins by. If he wants to win by more he will but BD is a straightforward animal and will do as he’s told.

In a way keeping his full arsenal of speed and power under wraps until March keeps his price respectable. If he wins cruising and pouncing at Kempton there is enough merit for the unbelievers to question his makeup even more!!

The believers? We simply go in again.



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most impressed by the ground he quickly made up when barry shook him up after 2 out. he's obviously a great traveller but far from a bridle ponce as well.
 
That instant injection of speed off a strong gallop is what makes him different. 2 strides then back on it and one of the best jumpers of a hurdle I have ever seen. Sublime.


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Very slow pace all around, novices earlier in the card went few seconds faster which explains why(beside the outsiders finishing so close) it took BDair a furlong or more to catch-up with TNO as both were full of running. Nothing new learned(top class, slick hurdler & v. good turn of foot), except that he's heavily supported in the CH a/p market by players that think he's in the same galaxy as Faugheen.
 
Loved the way he picked-up the bridle after two-out. It’s a Rumble in the Jungle job if both he and Faugheen make it, with Boov looking real solid.
 
Tracy Piggots interview with WPM after Footpads win gives me the sneaky feeling we won't see Faugheen this week.
 
Sorry only seeing this now Kauto.

Tracy asked him about Douvan and he gave a run down. Then she said something like, well at least we have Faugheen to look forward to on Friday...Willie dropped his head while crossing his fingers saying hopefully we’ll see him.

I’m paraphrasing, and I could be looking into something that’s not there, but it will be no surprise if they decide not to declare him citing some poor work he done etc.
 
Stephen says the horse is fine and will run...........Who's Stephen? He's from Ireland it's his Island he owns it :0)

Of course faugheen is running Hezz..you got one vivid imagination
 
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