The Road to the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Willie Mullins, it has to be said, was long overdue that win.

But spare a thought for the brother. He was on all the Mullins horses (he's a huge fan) ante-post at prices from 16/1 to 33/1... bar Al Boum Photo.
 
I doubt they will stretch Defi out that far but he's a Triumph winner so who knows. I am a big Santini fan and as i said before he would be my choice of a future winner. I like TofTG but he's a big horse and big horses often get problems.
 
I’ve just rated the race and I’ve got Al Boum coming out at a conservative 172. The time was also excellent and supports that I could conceivably rate him higher. the underwhelming feeling is largely because people didn’t see him winning, but I’m certain he’s a good winner.

To put his performance in to perspective the time of the race was quicker than both of Kauto Star’s wins, and he did it on softer ground than either of those races.
 
I'm looking at around 169 myself, Maruco, but I'll come up with something more deeply researched later in the week.
 
Frankel said:
I think Elegant Escape may give you your answer.

That said, a year on and maybe he can stretch it out. Bit of decent ground.
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Wonder if he is saying that now 'cos CDO didn't seem to stay, although the ground was horrible? I still think Frodon could have won it this year......................poor race or not.
 
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G-G said:
Wonder if he is saying that now 'cos CDO didn't seem to stay, although the ground was horrible? I still think Frodon could have won it this year......................poor race or not.
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Assuming Maruco's 172+ for ABP is correct it will be interesting to see what he has for Frodon. RPRs say ABP improved something like 9lbs on all known form yesterday to 178. They had 175 earlier this season for Frodon yet only 174 on Thursday. I had Frodon some way higher again earlier, hence my bullishness, as I went very, very high (with, I reckoned, strong justification) with his Caspian Caviar win, even allowing for its being a handicap.

As has been said elsewhere, some of Desert Orchid's and Arkle's highest ratings were earned in handicaps.

I look forward to another visit down the form mines later in the week.
 
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G-G said:
Wonder if he is saying that now 'cos CDO didn't seem to stay, although the ground was horrible? I still think Frodon could have won it this year......................poor race or not.
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CDO wasn't certain to see it out well enough and so it proved.

The form of the Cotswold for Frodon was simply nowhere good enough to get involved here. Add in the more extreme test he would have faced, the trainer had a reality check me thinks.
That said, would be no surprise if they have a crack next season.
 
Frankel said:
The form of the Cotswold for Frodon was simply nowhere good enough to get involved here.
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Correct.

But...

Frodon was on the way back from having been let down following the CC performance. He was well short of peak fitness. Nicholls commented after the race that he felt Frodon looked fatter than he'd planned. He also said Frodon would leave that form behind when fully fit. And that was after it had won.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Correct.

But...

Frodon was on the way back from having been let down following the CC performance. He was well short of peak fitness. Nicholls commented after the race that he felt Frodon looked fatter than he'd planned. He also said Frodon would leave that form behind when fully fit. And that was after it had won.
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There was the Hobson horse with Frodon turning for home who wouldn't be sighted in a Gold Cup at that stage.
With that the Tizzard horse was still able to run him down under those fractions. We are not talking a few pounds here he would have to find.

I like the big man and his faith he has in his horses, as most trainers do. However, faith and reality are very different.
He thought the trip was no issue for CDO. He thought the Hales horse would have no problem in the KG. Just saying....

Look, I like Frodon, wears his heart on his sleeve. However, he would have been doing a ruddy good drunken impression had he run in the Gold Cup.

He is still only 7, so next year you never know.
 
Frankel said:
There was the Hobson horse with Frodon turning for home who wouldn't be sighted in a Gold Cup at that stage.
With that the Tizzard horse was still able to run him down under those fractions. We are not talking a few pounds here he would have to find.

I like the big man and his faith he has in his horses, as most trainers do. However, faith and reality are very different.
He thought the trip was no issue for CDO. He thought the Hales horse would have no problem in the KG. Just saying....

Look, I like Frodon, wears his heart on his sleeve. However, he would have been doing a ruddy good drunken impression had he run in the Gold Cup.

He is still only 7, so next year you never know.
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I agree with every aspect of what you say except the bit I've changed to red.

I think for him to have run on up the hill when unfit over a trip just half a furlong short of the Gold Cup trip is a strong indicator that he would have been able to do so when bursting with fitness as he was on Thursday. He has the lot: 2.5m pace, fluent jumping, Gold Cup distance stamina and serious attitude, all topped off by ratings that mark him down as genuinely top class. I honestly thought he would have been bombproof in the Gold Cup to anything bar the true Might Bite on good ground.

I ... thought.

I could not possibly know as he hadn't yet gone and done it.

Similarly, you cannot state categorically that he would have ended up in the state you describe. It's your opinion and I support your entitlement to it but you cannot state it as fact any more than I can state as fact that he would have won.

Let's hope he does go for it next season and proves either opinion to be fact.
 
Well, the dream didn't last long but at least he came back safe and sound. David said that a horse (Percy it seems) took his ground when he was in mid-air and he had nowhere to go. No fault of the horse and maybe you'd question the decision to line up on the inside. He looked very well and, as the race panned out, he must have had every chance of running into a place. Hopefully he can gain compensation at Aintree or Punchestown.
 
archie said:
Well, the dream didn't last long but at least he came back safe and sound. David said that a horse (Percy it seems) took his ground when he was in mid-air and he had nowhere to go. No fault of the horse and maybe you'd question the decision to line up on the inside. He looked very well and, as the race panned out, he must have had every chance of running into a place. Hopefully he can gain compensation at Aintree or Punchestown.
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I hadn't paid much attention over the festival but was gutted when I saw your boy hadn't got chance to strut his stuff as you say plenty of good days ahead. There was one of yours in the Supreme was it ? Aramon ? Ran a race full of promise also. So hopefully he'll add to the better days ahead also.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I agree with every aspect of what you say except the bit I've changed to red.

I think for him to have run on up the hill when unfit over a trip just half a furlong short of the Gold Cup trip is a strong indicator that he would have been able to do so when bursting with fitness as he was on Thursday. He has the lot: 2.5m pace, fluent jumping, Gold Cup distance stamina and serious attitude, all topped off by ratings that mark him down as genuinely top class. I honestly thought he would have been bombproof in the Gold Cup to anything bar the true Might Bite on good ground.

I ... thought.

I could not possibly know as he hadn't yet gone and done it.

Similarly, you cannot state categorically that he would have ended up in the state you describe. It's your opinion and I support your entitlement to it but you cannot state it as fact any more than I can state as fact that he would have won.

Let's hope he does go for it next season and proves either opinion to be fact.
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It's clearly a game of opinions and differing views of which there will be many. What the game is all about.

As for next season, he is still young so in time he may actually need a trip. Time will tell.
 
Danny said:
There was one of yours in the Supreme was it ? Aramon ? Ran a race full of promise also. So hopefully he'll add to the better days ahead also.
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I do not think Archie owns any of Aramon (I'm sure he'll shout up if he does!), but my pals do and he ran a fabulous race on ground that 100% went against him. They would have been super happy with 4th and only missed out on that after getting squeezed out after the last. He has a bright future
 
Owner gave Kevin O'Ryan a good interview at Limerick yesterday.
The horse is lame and may have some soft tissue damage at back or pelvis area, is due to be examined this week.
He is hopeful Mall Dini will give a good account of himself at Aintree; he needs only four to come out to get a run.
"At least we got two runs into him !" was the phrase of the day.
Nice man Philip, he comes across very humble and loves his racing.
 
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