The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

[Maxbet]

If the forward-going horses stay efficient they won't be caught. As Ruby suggested last night, if they go very fast there has to be a chance on or two of them (he was talking Honeysuckle and Goshen effectively) won't stop. If they all stop, though, something will pick them up.

Blakemore, who is an excellent judge of pace, is riding a horse that can be ridden with waiting tactic's, or as we have seen many times, from the front. She has a simple task of following Goshen, sitting off him at whatever pace she feels isn't going to compromise her race, pressuring him if she feels his Jockey has gone too fast, test him for the same reason. I feel she can ride the perfect race and if it falls short of victory, then we have probably seen a monster.

The Mare's race last year was 4 seconds below standard slower than the Champion HDL, 3 seconds slower than the Supreme...but they ran 4 furlongs more. Break the 2 miles into 4 parts, that's an average of 4 seconds per half mile slow...break the Mare's race into 5 parts, they're 4 seconds per half mile slow and they did more work!

 

[reet hard]

Blakemore, who is an excellent judge of pace, is riding a horse that can be ridden with waiting tactic's, or as we have seen many times, from the front. She has a simple task of following Goshen, sitting off him at whatever pace she feels isn't going to compromise her race, pressuring him if she feels his Jockey has gone too fast, test him for the same reason. I feel she can ride the perfect race and if it falls short of victory, then we have probably seen a monster.

The Mare's race last year was 4 seconds below standard slower than the Champion HDL, 3 seconds slower than the Supreme...but they ran 4 furlongs more. Break the 2 miles into 4 parts, that's an average of 4 seconds per half mile slow...break the Mare's race into 5 parts, they're 4 seconds per half mile slow and they did more work!

So; if Goshen does a 'Make A Stand' say, Honeysusckle has the speed to lay up, and then pounce. In your dreams - maybe?

 

[Maxbet]

So; if Goshen does a 'Make A Stand' say, Honeysusckle has the speed to lay up, and then pounce. In your dreams - maybe?

If....Make A Stand got it wrong the first time he tried doing a Make a Stand....

Right now Goshen doing a Make A Stand, is but a dream...quite passionate for a flatty

 

[reet hard]

No answer to the question, though?

 

[Maxbet]

So; if Goshen does a 'Make A Stand' say, Honeysusckle has the speed to lay up, and then pounce. In your dreams - maybe?

I'm saying she will lay up as near as she can whilst still holding the horse together...

Jamie Moore has to get the fractions right too..but I assume you have dreamt that he does that...

 

[Maxbet]

No answer to the question, though?

I'm supposed to give an answer to an 'If'....Honeysuckle is not without pace...fact

edit: what if the ground is running fast, will he be as effective?

Wasn't Goshen withdrawn on several occasions because of the ground..He has been known to scope badly when the ground has a G in it...

 

[reet hard]

It's odds-on g/s ground, and I ain't about to join a slanging match.

 

[Tanlic]

Let's bear in mind, as you say, they have run 4 furlongs more up to whatever point in the race you want to call it from. Coming off the bend in the Champion, only two horses are not being driven...Epatante...fairly swinging away, the other is Petit Mouchoir. In the Mare's race, they start racing slightly earlier, and it's Blakemore who starts to test Benie's stamina and races from that point, the two of them drawing right away.
If you think about what she did in the Leopardstown race, where Petit Mouchoir is leading until halfway between the 3rd land 2nd last, then Honeysuckle opens up and turns on the taps, making it stamina from there on in..Petit comes under pressure immediately and can't stay with her, he tails off. He hadn't done any more than he did in front in the Champion, but Honeysuckle did him over 40L, Epatante a mere 11L. And the finishers that came after her couldn't close the gap. Their speed was negated by her pace....We have talked enough about the tactics to know that this is going to be about pace, and for most of them, their top speed run is going to start before the second last. I think Honeysuckle has proved she has pace Tanlic!

Edit: She's 4 seconds faster than Drop The Anchor (joint Fav for the County) giving him a stone!!!

She certainly didn't show exceptional pace in the mares,,,,,there was no real pace which the commentator actually remarked on...she was more dependant on finishing speed that day and was slow in comparisson to Eparatnte..fully 2 seconds slower from 3 out and 2 out.......that is slow in anyones book.

 

[Double J]

Abacadabras and Goshen are the bets in this for me. Ill be very surpised if at least one/both don’t finish in the first 2.

 

[Tanlic]

Re Goshen..racing alone from 2 out his sectional time from the 2nd last to the last was nothing out of the ordinary no matter how it may have looked.....same as Tiger Roll and Pentland Hills a flat 39 seconds....looked much faster but an illusion

 

[Marb]

Abacadabras and Goshen are the bets in this for me. Ill be very surpised if at least one/both don’t finish in the first 2.

Good to have you on the Goshen team, Double.

At least you haven't spent the last nine pages digging an even bigger hole for yourself.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Why does it have to be about 'teams' or 'camps' or oneupmanship?

We're either going to be right or wrong or somewhere in between.

Bet your own views with hard cash and be pleased with yourself if you win and have the magnanimity to commiserate with those who got it wrong.

No real need for entrenchment.

 

[Marb]

Bet your own views with hard cash and be pleased with yourself if you win and have the magnanimity to commiserate with those who got it wrong.

As someone who has stuck with Goshen all along, and as with Hawk Wing was highlighting his chances from the start of the season on various threads, I just found it interesting Double has changed his mind.

I used the word team loosely, not in the literal sense. I hope I'd generally be last the person to snigger at others based on what they thought of a horse race.

I'd call it banter.

 

[Desert Orchid]

My question was a more general one for the thread rather than directed at you in particular, Marb.

It has threatened to descend from good-natured banter more than once, as have other threads.

Let me proffer a possible - perhaps unlikely but nonetheless possible - scenario:

In a bunch finish separated by narrow margins we have, in finishing order, Goshen, Epatante, Honeysuckle, Buveur D'Air, Abacadabras, Silver Streak and Aspire Tower.

It isn't hard to envisage Goshen's supporters coming on here and claiming de facto bragging rights.

To be honest, if they did they would diminish themselves, certainly in my eyes. When it ends up separated by tiny margins, luck and circumstances play every bit as big a part as good judgment.

Let me say right now, if Goshen wins impressively I will be on here promptly to offer my congratulations.

Let's hope Goshen's fans are on equally promptly to congratulate backers of the winner if he fails.

 

[Grasshopper]

This thread is a sad and inferior reboot of the tremendous Handsome Judges versus Toothless Fishwives discussions of the glorious Hurricane Fly years.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Yeah but Hurricane Fly was a boring old plodder in a bad era.

A bit like Moscow Flyer and Dawn Run...

 

[Grasshopper]

Can someone please call the gendarmes on this troll.....

 

[Double J]

My question was a more general one for the thread rather than directed at you in particular, Marb.

It has threatened to descend from good-natured banter more than once, as have other threads.

Let me proffer a possible - perhaps unlikely but nonetheless possible - scenario:

In a bunch finish separated by narrow margins we have, in finishing order, Goshen, Epatante, Honeysuckle, Buveur D'Air, Abacadabras, Silver Streak and Aspire Tower.

It isn't hard to envisage Goshen's supporters coming on here and claiming de facto bragging rights.

To be honest, if they did they would diminish themselves, certainly in my eyes. When it ends up separated by tiny margins, luck and circumstances play every bit as big a part as good judgment.

Let me say right now, if Goshen wins impressively I will be on here promptly to offer my congratulations.

Let's hope Goshen's fans are on equally promptly to congratulate backers of the winner if he fails.

If Goshen fails its because Abacadabras has won it :lol:

For me, i can’t have the 2 mares. But i could also be miseraby wrong. If something else wins than so be it. Its a game of opinions and unfortunately some of us have to be wrong.

The race is massively intriguing, there are genuinely legitimate arguments for a 4/5 horses. I wouldn’t be suprised at all to see Honeysuckle win or even Buveur.

But at this stage the 2 to back for me are Aba and Goshen. The best horse on the day will win, and well done if you’re on it.

 

[Tout Seul]

Hurricane Fly - mm, is that the horse that couldn't even get second behind Jezki in 2014?

 

[HawkWing]

My question was a more general one for the thread rather than directed at you in particular, Marb.

It has threatened to descend from good-natured banter more than once, as have other threads.

Let me proffer a possible - perhaps unlikely but nonetheless possible - scenario:

In a bunch finish separated by narrow margins we have, in finishing order, Goshen, Epatante, Honeysuckle, Buveur D'Air, Abacadabras, Silver Streak and Aspire Tower.

It isn't hard to envisage Goshen's supporters coming on here and claiming de facto bragging rights.

To be honest, if they did they would diminish themselves, certainly in my eyes. When it ends up separated by tiny margins, luck and circumstances play every bit as big a part as good judgment.

Let me say right now, if Goshen wins impressively I will be on here promptly to offer my congratulations.

Let's hope Goshen's fans are on equally promptly to congratulate backers of the winner if he fails.

Im afraid the above doesn't sit well with me. I've not had a bet. I've no problem whether Goshen wins or not. I might back Honeysuckle yet.

However now it is somehow unseemly if he just wins - he will need to do by a certain distance - to justify 'bragging'.

I'm sure even if he did win, there would be someone claiming that the time analysis from the supreme suggests he would have finished fourth, or Epatante was being saved for next years County, or the race fell apart, and Goshen will still end up running in class 6s in Southwell etc etc etc.

There is/was an AWFUL lot of bulllshit confidently spoken about him in the last week, often dressed up as rational analysis, and at several stages through the year. I've reminded myself of the list in the last while. I'll be happy if he wins to hopefully stop the bullshit being so confidently posted, then the forum will be all the better for it. Obviously noone appointed me bullshit enforcer but its often the trigger. I should know better. Might force some humility even for a little while.

 

[Grasshopper]

Hurricane Fly - mm, is that the horse that couldn't even get second behind Jezki in 2014?

Welcome to Troll Hour on Talking Horses.

Please keep your hands within the vehicle at all times. Management cannot be held responsible if you backed The New One.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Im afraid the above doesn't sit well with me. I've not had a bet. I've no problem whether Goshen wins or not. I might back Honeysuckle yet.

However now it is somehow unseemly if he just wins - he will need to do by a certain distance - to justify 'bragging'.

I'm sure even if he did win, there would be someone claiming that the time analysis from the supreme suggests he would have finished fourth, or Epatante was being saved for next years County, or the race fell apart, and Goshen will still end up running in class 6s in Southwell etc etc etc.

There is/was an AWFUL lot of bulllshit confidently spoken about him in the last week, often dressed up as rational analysis, and at several stages through the year. I've reminded myself of the list in the last while. I'll be happy if he wins to hopefully stop the bullshit being so confidently posted, then the forum will be all the better for it. Obviously noone appointed me bullshit enforcer but its often the trigger. I should know better. Might force some humility even for a little while.

Hard to disagree with any of that, HW.

 

[reet hard]

Whatever of the above is aimed at me, I sincerely believe Goshen has the potential to be a very good CH winner, and I'll keep saying so until proven otherwise.
It's an opinion, and it's mine, so can the catty ones now draw in their claws?

 

[Frankel]

It's impossible to know how this race is going to pan out.

If the forward-going horses stay efficient they won't be caught. As Ruby suggested last night, if they go very fast there has to be a chance on or two of them (he was talking Honeysuckle and Goshen effectively) won't stop. If they all stop, though, something will pick them up.

That's the beauty of it.

With the potential for so much pace up front there is surely a chance for a pace collapse. Could be some broken horses come the business end if sucked in to early/mid battle.
Efficient rides could play out, but how much rope do you give good horses up top who you think may not stop?

 

[wilsonl]

That's the beauty of it.

With the potential for so much pace up front there is surely a chance for a pace collapse. Could be some broken horses come the business end if sucked in to early/mid battle.
Efficient rides could play out, but how much rope do you give good horses up top who you think may not stop?

No.

Too many good horses likely up with the pace. One or two of them up front will have to call it a day but you’d need an incredibly special horse to be able to run on again from the chasing pack, having initially struggled to keep up, past all of them