The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

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wilsonl said:
No.

Too many good horses likely up with the pace. One or two of them up front will have to call it a day but you’d need an incredibly special horse to be able to run on again from the chasing pack, having initially struggled to keep up, past all of them
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What is No?

Depends how much rope they are given and which horse is doing it. I'm saying some may wish they had ridden it differently if sucked in to battle early.
 
Frankel said:
What is No?

Depends how much rope they are given and which horse is doing it. I'm saying some may wish they had ridden it differently if sucked in to battle early.
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Apologies. I read the pace collapse comment as a question but see that it was a consideration.

The answer is still the same though. As an ante-post backer of Sharjah I hope I’m wrong but at least one of the pace forcing horses will have enough to keep it up and stave off the wolves.
 
wilsonl said:
Apologies. I read the pace collapse comment as a question but see that it was a consideration.

The answer is still the same though. As an ante-post backer of Sharjah I hope I’m wrong but at least one of the pace forcing horses will have enough to keep it up and stave off the wolves.
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Your take/chances of Goshen :whistle:

:cool:
 
As an Epatante supporter the one fear I have is Nicholas John Henderson turning out Buveur D'Air 110% and kicking the mare AND THE REST into touch.

Not many believed Sprinter Sacre couldwin another Champion Chase but not only did he do so he followed it up by one of the best performance ever seen at Sandown when destroying Un Des Sceux

Twice he finished 2nd with MTOY when most gave him no chance of being placed and won with Binocular who mosr had written off.......you just can't write him off when it comes to a horse like Buvi.
 
Marb said:
Good to have you on the Goshen team, Double.

At least you haven't spent the last nine pages digging an even bigger hole for yourself. :)
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The one you have dug is big enough for you both:lol: I do like the way Abacadabras travlels but there are definitely issues there......he jst finds nothing and his win over Sait Roi was lucky because Saint Roi wasn't right apparently....i can see him being there beteen the last 2 and then out goes the dummy in this grade
 
Marb said:
Good to have you on the Goshen team, Double.

At least you haven't spent the last nine pages digging an even bigger hole for yourself. :)
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The one you have dug is big enough for you both:lol: I do like the way Abacadabras travlels but there are definitely issues there......he jst finds nothing and his win over Sait Roi was lucky because Saint Roi wasn't right apparently....i can see him being there beteen the last 2 and then out goes the dummy in this grade
 
An epic thread on what promises to be an epic race - as befits a contest widely regarded as the 2m hurdle Championship of the whole season. 35 pages and counting, despite the recently introduced sour note in proceedings.
 
IMO, it’s not a proper Champion Hurdle thread, until people hoist their colours and start calling each other cu*nts.

This thread now qualifies.
 
All this Goshen debate has got me properly thinking about how the race will be run, and who will benefit most, and Honeysuckle is the one that's best equipped for this isn't she?

We can spend hours over-thinking this race and its permutations, but she's the one that's likely to benefit most by the way the race will almost certainly be run. It's going to be a stern test with so much speed at the front end. Do you really want to be in the van with that being the case. Similarly you can't afford to be left too far behind, or swept off your feet.

Honeysuckle has proven she stays and has gears, and will be stretching her neck out all the way to the line. She will want to lay up behind the pace and stalk the leaders until they start to turn for home, where I suspect she'll try to take it on with whatever is left leading. I think we all presume that'll be Goshen. It'll be a long way home for him though, and despite booting clear of the juveniles last season Goshen is yet to prove he truly stays because he didn't get past the last hurdle. These are Champion Hurdle horses not four year old juveniles, and I'm not sure stuffing an under par Song For Someone and Navajo Pass really proved anything other than his wellbeing, despite the manor of victory. Ascot is a marmite track, just like Haydock, and is susceptable to producing wide margin wins. Does anyone really think First Flow will win the Champion Chase? No I didn't think so.

I also think Honeysuckle has probably got too much for Goshen anyway, not least a seven pound claim. Epatante is the intriguing one now though. None of us can say she can't do precisely what Honeysuckle can. She didn't need to last year, but she will defnitely need to this year. As the current Champion she deserves complete respect, because if she's close enough to those two, she could still have more pace than them when they're locking horns round the bend and over the last. We'll get to see if that Rolls Royce engine of hers has enough petrol left in the tank. She very possibly will get some help from Abracadabras getting to them, who will also probably be staying on late, but probably won't fully go through with it. Then there's the old Champ, her stablemate Buveur d'Air, who at his peak would relish a test like this, and it might be a year to late now anyway. But he will be around to help her get there when the race hots up.

The more I think about it, I think Honeysuckle just wins, and just like last year when people were trying to oppose Epatante, it just pays to accept the obvious.
 
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Having read and considered all the inputs I'm coming down on the side of a Epatante/Buveur forecast. The overrated Goshen and the stayer, Honetsuckle will do each other in by the turn, Abacadaras will come there full of running, like Harchibald only quirky, but fade quickly and the legions of green and gold hoops will arrive after the last to fight it out, the mare winning a neck. Sharjah will stay on for third place.

When you compare this years race to some of the duds in the past, like say 2003, it is mouth watering and this thread has added to the anticipation greatly.
 
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reet hard said:
An epic thread on what promises to be an epic race - as befits a contest widely regarded as the 2m hurdle Championship of the whole season. 35 pages and counting, despite the recently introduced sour note in proceedings.
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With 35 pages, c650 replies, and c16,000 views, this is a tiddler in comparison to the 2011 epic (79, pages, 1500+ replies, and over 80,000 views).......though to be fair, a good part of that was just me arguing with EC1.
 
Maruco said:
The more I think about it, I think Honeysuckle just wins, and just like last year when people were trying to oppose Epatante, it just pays to accept the obvious.
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Did you fancy Honeysuckle for the Champion before her last run, or was it her last 'performance' that made you think actually she is a proper Champion horse?
 
I think back to 2012 and everything I held so certain crumbled. I was in deep and needed a break. A comeback so great could only be matched by a horse so great and 2013 was the thing of legend.

I do remember the despair though. Its unpleasant and I say to the Goshen fan boys, when the fun stops, stop.
 
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Side note to the excellent discussion in this thread.

They said the forum was dying and dead in November. Nice to see so many people involved with opinions!!
 
granger said:
I think back to 2012 and everything I held so certain crumbled. I was in deep and needed a break. A comeback so great could only be matched by a horse so great and 2013 was great.

I do remember the despair though. Its unpleasant and I say to the Goshen fan boys, when the fun stops, stop.
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2013 was salvation. The Fly and Solwhit. A glorious, glorious year.

But we digress.

I reckon we should be factoring the going more into our calculations. Most of the field have produced their best form on genuinely soft-ground, and I reckon it’s going to be pretty quick, no matter how much Claisse pours on to keep ‘Soft’ somewhere in the description. Fast pace and relatively-fast ground could see a bit of a mad result.
 
Definitely the thread of the year. Some well-argued points; divided opinion; and some good old-fashioned niggle. I’ve loved it.

My own view is that Epatante is the champ. She’ll be ridden off the pace, and pick off Goshen and Honeysuckle up the hill. Abracadabras picks off a flagging Goshen for third.
 
I'm still siding with the current champ.
Not with anywhere as much confidence as at the start of the season though.
 
Maruco said:
All this Goshen debate has got me properly thinking about how the race will be run, and who will benefit most, and Honeysuckle is the one that's best equipped for this isn't she?

We can spend hours over-thinking this race and its permutations, but she's the one that's likely to benefit most by the way the race will almost certainly be run. It's going to be a stern test with so much speed at the front end. Do you really want to be in the van with that being the case. Similarly you can't afford to be left too far behind, or swept off your feet.

Honeysuckle has proven she stays and has gears, and will be stretching her neck out all the way to the line. She will want to lay up behind the pace and stalk the leaders until they start to turn for home, where I suspect she'll try to take it on with whatever is left leading. I think we all presume that'll be Goshen. It'll be a long way home for him though, and despite booting clear of the juveniles last season Goshen is yet to prove he truly stays because he didn't get past the last hurdle. These are Champion Hurdle horses not four year old juveniles, and I'm not sure stuffing an under par Song For Someone and Navajo Pass really proved anything other than his wellbeing, despite the manor of victory. Ascot is a marmite track, just like Haydock, and is susceptable to producing wide margin wins. Does anyone really think First Flow will win the Champion Chase? No I didn't think so.

I also think Honeysuckle has probably got too much for Goshen anyway, not least a seven pound claim. Epatante is the intriguing one now though. None of us can say she can't do precisely what Honeysuckle can. She didn't need to last year, but she will defnitely need to this year. As the current Champion she deserves complete respect, because if she's close enough to those two, she could still have more pace than them when they're locking horns round the bend and over the last. We'll get to see if that Rolls Royce engine of hers has enough petrol left in the tank. She very possibly will get some help from Abracadabras getting to them, who will also probably be staying on late, but probably won't fully go through with it. Then there's the old Champ, her stablemate Buveur d'Air, who at his peak would relish a test like this, and it might be a year to late now anyway. But he will be around to help her get there when the race hots up.

The more I think about it, I think Honeysuckle just wins, and just like last year when people were trying to oppose Epatante, it just pays to accept the obvious.
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Good analysis, Maruco, but it does rely on the proposition that Goshen will come back to them and not maintain his relentless galloping to the end. Admittedly that’s the unknown, but he has kept going up to now - bar the slight unknown in not finishing the Triumph - and in his last race Jamie had a helluva job pulling up after the line so he clearly had petrol left and was still raring for more.

That said, I agree with An that he is probably overrated measured strictly by what he has actually achieved and it relies a lot on the manner of his wins (and near win!) and the potential they indicate. It’s that potential that is seen only rarely and I look forward to him fulfilling it soon - I’ll be much the poorer if he doesn’t :).
 
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Grasshopper said:
I reckon we should be factoring the going more into our calculations. Most of the field have produced their best form on genuinely soft-ground, and I reckon it’s going to be pretty quick, no matter how much Claisse pours on to keep ‘Soft’ somewhere in the description. Fast pace and relatively-fast ground could see a bit of a mad result.
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I've been thinking something similar since yesterday's big hcap chase at Kempton.

I know that's a bit like going from the ridiculous to the sublime and that the two races couldn't be much different but the principle is there.

Horses that have appeared to struggle for pace were suddenly out there cutting away at their fences and not stopping. It was a great race to watch and I backed four in it. Not one of the four got a look in at any time.

Compare that with the Eider on soft/heavy. I narrowed it down to four. At best morning odds they dutched at somewhere between evens and 10/11 so I went for the pound signs and put all my eggs in the Springfield Fox basket each-way only to see it try to make all and fade, the other thee filling the first three places.

I suspect what we see in the Champion Hurdle might not be what we anticipate.

While I've enjoyed most of the thread I haven't tried to over-think it too much. So far, all I've really done is look at my figures and see how they compare with what it takes to win a modest, average, good or top renewal.

I'm still not sure what this year's will be.

Honeysuckle and Epatante are mares. In a proper era they'd be handicapping if it weren't for the allowance.

One run suddenly makes Silver Streak and Goshen contenders.

Think back to when Espoir D'Allen ran away from Melon in a huge time. Suddenly he was the next superstar. Within a year everyone was saying what a crap renewal it had been.

Like I say, I've just looked at figures and compared them with past standards with a view to snaffling some ante-post value. I haven't even thought about how the race might be won.

I might do so at the five-day stage but right now the one I'm most drawn to (and is already my biggest potential winner ante-post) is Buveur D'Air. His best form is more than 7lbs better than either of the mares'.
 
I'm a big Goshen fan and I hope he wins well.but I do have doubts as usual.
One is hes only a five yr old and they dont have a good record.
The other one is just me,after he lost his jockey in the triumph he still didnt finish 1st.
 
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