The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

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Before Honeysuckle jumped ship the feeling was that she wouldnt have the toe to cope with Concerista. When the switch came my gut feeling said better finishing placed in the CH than the mares. The sectionals in the CH v the Mares ssy at every turn she cant possibly win the CH There was no early pace in the mares last year so it turned into a sprint from 2 out and she and Beni went at it hammer and tongs. Strictly on the sectional time she would have trailed in 4th in the CH. Sure she has beaten Sharjah since but so did Abracadabras so that form should be taken witg a pinch of salt imo. Maybe it was a dress rehearsal for their CH plan to kick on from 3 out but NJH is well aware of that and has already said they dont intend to give her too much reign and Goshen is unlikely to go tearing off in front that wiĺ be left to the grey and My feeling is they are all playing into Epatantes hands....Honeysuckle 5/2 is the worst value I have seen in any of the top races and unless the wheels come off Epatante she has no chance of beating her
 
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Have to agree with Fist; unless it's a bog, she won't have the speed.
Goshen will, though
 
I really think he's overrated big time..he was good in the Triumph granted but when he faced a real test in the International he was given every chance but folded like a pack of cards. Ok he won the Kingwell but that race was a joke..the runner up never went a yard in the ground and the 3rd wouldnt be sighted in a CH.

There's not one bit of form that justifies his price IMO and I expect him to spit out the dummy when push comes to shove on Tuesday..
 
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Tanlic-you are some man to waffle -how can 5/2 be bad value when she has been and will be available to lay at lower prices on betfair.Do you actually understand the concept of value.
 
LUKE said:
Tanlic-you are some man to waffle -how can 5/2 be bad value when she has been and will be available to lay at lower prices on betfair.Do you actually understand the concept of value.
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This is a really good watch but during it Barry sounds VERY concerned about Honeysuckle not being fast enough if the ground is good:

https://youtu.be/-38SpxMy7dU
 
LUKE said:
Tanlic-you are some man to waffle -how can 5/2 be bad value when she has been and will be available to lay at lower prices on betfair.Do you actually understand the concept of value.
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As far as I can see you have made no attempt to analyze the race,,,waffle is meaningless one liners with nothing to say.........do you know the sectional time Honeysuckle recorded from 2 out in last year mares.. I do because I took the time to check before posting........you should try looking further than oddschecker before critisizing others
 
Tanlic said:
As far as I can see you have made no attempt to analyze the race,,,waffle is meaningless one liners with nothing to say.........do you know the sectional time Honeysuckle recorded from 2 out in last year mares.. I do because I took the time to check before posting........you should try looking further than oddschecker before critisizing others
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I fail to see the correlation between sectional times and value.
 
Tanlic said:
As far as I can see you have made no attempt to analyze the race,,,waffle is meaningless one liners with nothing to say.........do you know the sectional time Honeysuckle recorded from 2 out in last year mares.. I do because I took the time to check before posting........you should try looking further than oddschecker before critisizing others
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this is a subjective way of arriving on whether a price is value or not. not saying it's correct or incorrect but a price that's higher than the current exchange price is an objective way of reaching that conclusion.
 
Slim said:
This is a really good watch but during it Barry sounds VERY concerned about Honeysuckle not being fast enough if the ground is good:

https://youtu.be/-38SpxMy7dU
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Yep, and equally confident about Epatante on one of the YouTube previews I watched last night.

My only problem with it, was that the horses BG gave a shout to on that preview (Vanessa Ryle hosted it - can’t remember the name), were 90% McManus yokes, so I felt compelled to take it all with a pinch of salt.
 
Value is a terrible word in my book......I can't bring myself to back a horse I think cant win.....If Honeysuckle was 6/1 I still wouldn't back her to win as I think Epatatnte will make mincemeat of her....

Listening to Bayy Geraghty just now say Epatante is much bigger and stronger than shee was last year only srves to make me take the real value

At the end of the day it's all opinions but I find it helps to collect every bit of infor you can and not just pin stick or back something because it's 1/2 a point longer with Hills than it is with Ladbrokes
 
Tanlic said:
Value is a terrible word in my book......I can't bring myself to back a horse I think cant win.....If Honeysuckle was 6/1 I still wouldn't back her to win as I think Epatatnte will make mincemeat of her....

Listening to Bayy Geraghty just now say Epatante is much bigger and stronger than shee was last year only srves to make me take the real value

At the end of the day it's all opinions but I find it helps to collect every bit of infor you can and not just pin stick or back something because it's 1/2 a point longer with Hills than it is with Ladbrokes
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Yes, in fact you could say I chase poor value - throw more money at it as price hardens - and forsake good value - won’t touch drifters with a barge pole. Suits me.
 
My final say on the race is watching Nicky Henderson's body language and look in a recent preview he was bursting to say she was an absolute certainty...in fact he said very little.......good luck all que sera
 
Tanlic said:
My final say on the race is watching Nicky Henderson's body language and look in a recent preview he was bursting to say she was an absolute certainty...in fact he said very little.......good luck all que sera
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1 runner yesterday, won
1 runner today, won

Gearing up nicely...
 
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