The Road To The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Fair chance the handicapper will rate him based on subsequent improvement from Santini and Delta Work, and absolutely clobber him, tbh DO. He might not give him the full bhuna, but It would be no surprise to see TOTG get 170 - and that would be some mark to try to defy after such a long absence.

That said, I agree he will probably shorten regardless of what the handicapper does.
 
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I honestly don't believe the handicapper works that way, GH. I'll be gutted if he does!!! :mad: (Can't find a boke emoji!)
 
Maybe at one time it would have been beyond the pale, but I’m not so sure any more.

The handicapper principal motivation is not to be made to look like an arsehole, and I reckon he’ll be looking to guard against that outcome, when framing the Hennessy weights.
 
I suspect Nicholls has already been on the phone to the handicapper to 'discuss' a rating for the horse.

The norm, though, is most definitely to allow a horse a few pounds (sometimes as much as 10lbs) for an extended absence. It's something I've noted (and occasionally exploited) down the years.

I am 110% certain TOTG will not be rated higher than 164, his last OR. I'd see that as guarding against criticism.
 
I know some aren't keen on speed figures and sectionals in National Hunt racing, but Simon Rowlands analysis of the Charlie Hall and Cyrname's winning performance is a good example of how they can be useful. In this instance it proves he was able to sprint off the front in a race that was no test at all. Therefore those that thought it was a staying performance that makes him a credible Gold Cup contender will have to wait for further evidence or just roll the dice that he 'might' be able to get the trip against proven stayers bred for the job. For what it's worth, now that we know he goes left-handed, 12/1 with cashout for the Ryanair feels like a sensible bet.

https://t.attheraces.com/blogs/sect...l-was-speed-test-plus-tpd-sectionals-at-ascot
 
Speed figures like everything Paul, they have their place.

If we fail to evolve, we get left behind

I have no doubt the KG will truly test him as he will have to finish with that pace after going around flat out for 2.75m

My disagreemnt to some on here was that he looked like he didnt stay comfortably on Sat was folly. A horse with that much reserve in place to jump like he did and the fact that he did finish strong means to me, i am comfortable that he will stay 3 miles

Would I like to be Harry Cobden on boxing day picking between the 2? he has a choice to make
 
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Cobden’s choice between Cyrname and CDO will probably tell you everything you need to know about yard confidence in Cyrname’s stamina.

FWIW, I think Cyrname won the Charlie Hall cosily, but the KG is usually a much-sterner examination of a horse’s stamina, and I personally wouldn’t take the chance. Insofar as the Gold Cup is concerned, I couldn’t have him at all.
 
Maruco said:
I know some aren't keen on speed figures and sectionals in National Hunt racing, but Simon Rowlands analysis of the Charlie Hall and Cyrname's winning performance is a good example of how they can be useful. In this instance it proves he was able to sprint off the front in a race that was no test at all.
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As you know, Maruco, I'm into sectionals (not quite in an anoraky way just yet and probably will never get to that stage 'cos of my age) but on a point of pedantry, SR never said Cyrname "was able to sprint" off the pace. In fact, he actually used inverted commas to emphasise that he "asserted".

In my own crude piece posted earlier in the week I concluded that he wasn't a lot faster than the relatively lowly Class 4 handicap over CD, in largely the same vein as SR's piece. My take, though, is that the Class 4 race might well be a lot stronger than could have been anticipated.

I was also concerned that Vinndication, despite not jumping fluently, stayed on well against others that were probably tiring. In the circumstances, if I were a fan of Cyrname, I'd be a wee bit uncomfortable about Vinndication ending up relatively close to him.

At least SR admits NH sectionals are little beyond the embryonic stage but they're always worth reading.
 
You think of the amount of top class horses who have floundered up the Cheltenham hill - Conti, Florida Pearl, One Man etc - they would all have demolished that Charlie Hall field.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I am 110% certain TOTG will not be rated higher than 164, his last OR. I'd see that as guarding against criticism.
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Humble pie time. Serves me right for being over-confident. Always worthy of a slap in the chops.

It looks like Topofthegame has been put on 165. I'm still happy with that for the Hennessy. It wouldn't put me off one bit but I'll be looking for a cat to kick if it loses by a length.
 
Euronymous said:
You think of the amount of top class horses who have floundered up the Cheltenham hill - Conti, Florida Pearl, One Man etc - they would all have demolished that Charlie Hall field.
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I think that's too easy to say without being able to prove it one way or t'other.

We're still at the stage where levels of fitness are uncertain. The ones mentioned, sure, would have demolished that field at their best form.

I certainly wouldn't have expected a horse of Definitly Red's ability to be off the bit before the end of the first circuit. The likes of La Bague was taken back and wide for long spells.

I think a lot of other connections accepted they couldn't help but have a hard race if they tried to stick it to Cyrname and, whether they would have ended up being successful or not, it could have done their horses' campaigns more harm than good.

I think we'll see more of that than usual before Christmas due to poor levels of prize money. Some of it is hardly worth chasing if it ruins a horse's mark for when prize money levels recover, assuming they will.
 
You don't need sectionals to see that they went a married man's gallop in the Charlie Hall.

Topofthegame is an interesting animal too............but I can't think of any recent Gold Cup Winner what won the race having missed a season??
 
I think the point is that, whilst the Charlie Hall did not prove that Cyrname had the stamina to finish strongly after Gold Cup pace, it did nothing to suggest that he couldn’t. He looked pretty comfortable to me. At the very least it must have moved him a good few notches along from the “can’t stay” view that was prevalent before the race.
 
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When it comes to Cyrname, I think you have to assess his stamina independently for the KG and the Gold Cup.

Based on the Charlie Hall, he should be given the benefit of the doubt for Kempton, but I think he'd be one to robustly oppose in a Gold Cup, even if he danced-up in the King George.
 
Grasshopper said:
When it comes to Cyrname, I think you have to assess his stamina independently for the KG and the Gold Cup.

Based on the Charlie Hall, he should be given the benefit of the doubt for Kempton, but I think he'd be one to robustly oppose in a Gold Cup, even if he danced-up in the King George.
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Exactly this.
 
Good shout DO.

What about Gold Cup Winners who missed a season after their novice chasing campaign? Must be an Egghead on here who knows that?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
It looks like Topofthegame has been put on 165. I'm still happy with that for the Hennessy. It wouldn't put me off one bit but I'll be looking for a cat to kick if it loses by a length.
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I wouldn't mind being a fly on the wall in the Nicholls admin office this morning.

Benatar, off for about the same amount of time as TOTG, emerges with a new rating 7lbs lower than when last seen. He was disappointing then and might have been dropped a pound or two (his rating had been unchanged for a few runs) for it but it looks like he's been given an allowance of some sort to take his absence into account. I don't imagine Nicholls will be happy about that.

Coo Star Sivola has dropped 6lbs for a similar absence while Nicholls's Kapcorse has been kept on 138.

I don't imagine Hendo will be too chuffed that Beware The Bear has been kept on 158 but but he hasn't had a season off.
 
Are the ratings now confirmed, DO? If so, do you have a link to them, as I’ll probably start having a proper look at the race if they are.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't mind being a fly on the wall in the Nicholls admin office this morning.

Benatar, off for about the same amount of time as TOTG, emerges with a new rating 7lbs lower than when last seen. He was disappointing then and might have been dropped a pound or two (his rating had been unchanged for a few runs) for it but it looks like he's been given an allowance of some sort to take his absence into account. I don't imagine Nicholls will be happy about that.

Coo Star Sivola has dropped 6lbs for a similar absence while Nicholls's Kapcorse has been kept on 138.

I don't imagine Hendo will be too chuffed that Beware The Bear has been kept on 158 but but he hasn't had a season off.
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More likely that the horses whose ratings have dropped, have been re-assessed on subsequent form of their opponents, rather than on account of their absence, no?
 
tiggers1972 said:
Good shout DO.

What about Gold Cup Winners who missed a season after their novice chasing campaign? Must be an Egghead on here who knows that?
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IIRC Dawn Run had an injury and time off at some point in her career prior to winning?
 
TOPOFTHEGAME (IRE)
8YO CHESNUT GELDING
Horse details
Owner: Mr Chris Giles & Mr&Mrs P K Barber (partnership)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Associated Content:
Rating
Chase: 165 (Last Published: 03 Nov 2020)
Hurdle: no current rating +
 
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