The Road To The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Double J said:
How Santini is second fav for this race I have no idea.
Click to expand...

Unclear if we're talking Leopardstown or Gold Cup but either way, Santini might be the best staying chaser in the country.

Nothing went right for him in the Gold Cup: interrupted preparation, hampered at the top of the hill, again turning for home and again going to the last before switching clear of the others and running on strongly. I think we're in a modest era of Gold Cup horses but see Santini as likely to be considerably better with a smoother run at it and with another season behind him. He's the one I would take out of last year's race and reckon he has the potential to be a 175-180 horse.

I rate last year's RSA so Champ and Minella Indo are interesting with Allaho reportedly more likely to drop back in trip. I wouldn't worry about the likes of Cyrname and CDO at Cheltenham until they show me it's unlikely to inconvenience them.

I imagine a handicapper or two will improve enough to come into consideration as place contenders but not likely to be 175+ types.

I don't have big figures for ABP or Kemboy so what's to stop Santini?

Edit - I just looked up Santini on the RP database and followed a link to Mick Fitz's 10TF in which he mentions Santini as a Grand National horse. Considering his links with the yard, this worries me. Do they no longer believe he can win a Gold Cup? Do they think Champ is the likelier candidate? If he comes out and is well beaten it will probably be the National for him and they'll try and get him down 10lbs from his current 172 by early Feb when the weights are released so expect two or three midfield finishes in G2 company.
 
Last edited:
Santini reminds me very-much of Bobsworth. Can get out-paced but finishes with a rattle.

I’m not particularly keen on him for the Gold Cup (for the reasons above), but it would take a higher degree of confidence than I can muster, to write him off completely.
 
Last edited:
tiggers1972 said:
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but they should have bounced Santini out in front and made it a real stamina yesterday this year.
Click to expand...

I don’t think he is fast enough to lead a Gold Cup field, Darren......or at least, if he did, I think he’d only set it up for something with a better finishing kick.

I think he’d need them to go quite hard, hope to stay in touch, and look to run-on past tiring horses. He’d also want to jump better than has often been the case, to maintain a good position. Soft ground would help him too.

I think he needs a few things to go his way, to be winning the big one, tbh, and others of similar merit seem a lot more straightforward.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Unclear if we're talking Leopardstown or Gold Cup but either way, Santini might be the best staying chaser in the country.

Nothing went right for him in the Gold Cup: interrupted preparation, hampered at the top of the hill, again turning for home and again going to the last before switching clear of the others and running on strongly. I think we're in a modest era of Gold Cup horses but see Santini as likely to be considerably better with a smoother run at it and with another season behind him. He's the one I would take out of last year's race and reckon he has the potential to be a 175-180 horse.

I rate last year's RSA so Champ and Minella Indo are interesting with Allaho reportedly more likely to drop back in trip. I wouldn't worry about the likes of Cyrname and CDO at Cheltenham until they show me it's unlikely to inconvenience them.

I imagine a handicapper or two will improve enough to come into consideration as place contenders but not likely to be 175+ types.

I don't have big figures for ABP or Kemboy so what's to stop Santini?

Edit - I just looked up Santini on the RP database and followed a link to Mick Fitz's 10TF in which he mentions Santini as a Grand National horse. Considering his links with the yard, this worries me. Do they no longer believe he can win a Gold Cup? Do they think Champ is the likelier candidate? If he comes out and is well beaten it will probably be the National for him and they'll try and get him down 10lbs from his current 172 by early Feb when the weights are released so expect two or three midfield finishes in G2 company.
Click to expand...

Was hoping you’d reply with a figure you’d have him at. You’re a good judge and never far wrong if wrong.

He’s obviously second favourite for a reason. I just can’t take to him. Has no speed, I’m still not convinced by his jumping, and he seems he’d only ever want to do just enough.

I think he’s a nice horse who’ll just always find one or two too good for him. Unless it pissed down Cheltenham week, any sort of good in the description I’ll be place laying him.

He’s likely to only have 2 runs before the Gold Cup DO, so if the National is the target, I’ll be absolutely gobsmacked if it’s this year.
 
After the ****-up with Altior I doubt Henderson would risk a National experiment with Santini - Gold Cup is the target.
 
Santini was beaten a neck in a slowly run race that was the exact opposite of what he needed. With more pace this year he has to be a big player.

I think it’s between him and Minella Indo, with Champ and Al Boum fighting it out for third.
 
I can't think of many chasers rated 170+ without a Grade One to their name over fences. I like the horse, but he's one that always seems to have excuses at the highest level.
 
A classy grinder with no turn of foot. He needs it to be one of those real championship pace Gold Cups where they’re stopping up the hill.
 
Grasshopper said:
I don’t think he is fast enough to lead a Gold Cup field, Darren......or at least, if he did, I think he’d only set it up for something with a better finishing kick.

I think he’d need them to go quite hard, hope to stay in touch, and look to run-on past tiring horses. He’d also want to jump better than has often been the case, to maintain a good position. Soft ground would help him too.

I think he needs a few things to go his way, to be winning the big one, tbh, and others of similar merit seem a lot more straightforward.
Click to expand...

He's fast enough to have done it in this years race Nick, it was a crawl, hence why there were so many in with a chance 2 out.
That's why I'm tempted to think his chance has passed him by.
 
Maruco said:
Santini was beaten a neck in a slowly run race that was the exact opposite of what he needed. With more pace this year he has to be a big player.

I think it’s between him and Minella Indo, with Champ and Al Boum fighting it out for third.
Click to expand...

Hard to look outside the four you have mentioned at this stage.

Wasn't ABP more impressive in his first Gold Cup where they have gone a good clip? So whereas Santini may have appeared unlucky in March, it could be that more pace will also assist ABP equally. Are we also sure Santini will travel in a better race?

Has Vinndication no chance here?
 
Frankel said:
Hard to look outside the four you have mentioned at this stage.

Wasn't ABP more impressive in his first Gold Cup where they have gone a good clip? So whereas Santini may have appeared unlucky in March, it could be that more pace will also assist ABP equally. Are we also sure Santini will travel in a better race?

Has Vinndication no chance here?
Click to expand...

Not sure Vinndication
A. Has enough tactical speed (he was getting pushed along to retain his position a long way out in the pedestrian Charlie Hall
B. Doesn't get the highest at his fences.

I think the four Maruco mentioned are probably high on most peoples shortlist.
I'm most intrigued by Champ, if the breathing op has worked and a summer at Henrietta Knights has sorted his jumping out he could be the one. After all he won the RSA after not jumping great and his wind could have also possibly played a part.
 
Last edited:
tiggers1972 said:
Not sure Vinndication
A. Has enough tactical speed (he was getting pushed along to retain his position a long way out in the pedestrian Charlie Hall
B. Doesn't get the highest at his fences.

I think the four Maruco mentioned are probably high on most peoples shortlist.
I'm most intrigued by Champ, if the breathing op has worked and a summer at Henrietta Knights has sorted his jumping out he could be the one. After all he won the RSA after not jumping great and his wind could have also possibly played a part.
Click to expand...

Agree regards Vinndication. He will be more suited to track/trip at Cheltenham mind. I have my doubts but not sure he should be as big as 40s though.

Yes Champ is very interesting, especially given how he finished in the RSA.
 
Last edited:
Frankel said:
H

Wasn't ABP more impressive in his first Gold Cup where they have gone a good clip?
Click to expand...

Yes and no! In terms of the manner of his victory, without doubt yes. But in terms of what he beat, no.

This is shaping up like a much better Gold Cup, and whilst off a hotter pace he can be expected to run the same race he did two seasons ago, he wasn't facing three protagonists that will want exactly that and I suspect both Minella Indo and Santini will prove to be more thorough stayers. If Champ jumps and the breathing op works it may also be true of him too.
 
Maruco said:
Yes and no! In terms of the manner of his victory, without doubt yes. But in terms of what he beat, no.

This is shaping up like a much better Gold Cup, and whilst off a hotter pace he can be expected to run the same race he did two seasons ago, he wasn't facing three protagonists that will want exactly that and I suspect both Minella Indo and Santini will prove to be more thorough stayers. If Champ jumps and the breathing op works it may also be true of him too.
Click to expand...

Does potentially look a hotter race I agree. I think the doubt I would have with ABP is more to do with him being able to produce in another Gold Cup. Even though he will come in fresh again, these races normally leave a mark.
Hopefully they all get to post.
 
ABP is one of the underrated horses in history. Never gets the credit he deserves. He has gears & can stay. People always tend to pick holes in him. He'll be carrying my money in March as he has the past 2 years (33's ante post 2019 :whistle:)
 
I think he'd get more credit if he ran in more than one meaningful race a year. At least Best Mate took in the King George.
 
Willie has certainly been careful how he's campaigned him. Last season being cut short possibly exaggerates that though as he'd possibly have gone on to run a couple more times.

I think the reason Gold Cup winners often all short in the following season is because they take in either Aintree or Punchestown and have another hard race on quickish ground that leaves a significant mark, and not because of the Gold Cup itself.

Al Boum has been there, done that, and will go there as fresh as anything. Willie will leave him with no excuses. But it's not 2019 or 2020, and in 2021 he faces stronger rivals that are likely to get the race run to suit, and I think he will be beaten by a better horse on the day.
 
Last years Gold cup could hardly be labelled severe, with the whole field congesting 3 out. It was a staying sprint if there is such a thing!

But in many ways, it shows the true class of the protagonist's, combining strength, stamina and tactical speed.
 
Last edited:
Euronymous said:
I think he'd get more credit if he ran in more than one meaningful race a year. At least Best Mate took in the King George.
Click to expand...

Yeah really bad decision making by Mullins that, only meant he was winning trainer the GC for the first time & then winning it the next year with similar route.
 
Meh. He was a tad lucky last season and this year's looks a better renewal. He's not getting any younger also. There's five I'd sooner back in the ap lists tbh.
 
DannyB said:
Yeah really bad decision making by Mullins that, only meant he was winning trainer the GC for the first time & then winning it the next year with similar route.
Click to expand...

Cautious campaigning didn’t do a great deal for Best Mate’s legacy. It will be the same with ABP, if it’s Tramore and Cheltenham again......and it would be as much of a dis-service to Al Boum Photo, as it was to Best Mate (who at least was tested in King George and Lexus Chases).
 
Last edited:
Euronymous said:
Meh. He was a tad lucky last season and this year's looks a better renewal. He's not getting any younger also. There's five I'd sooner back in the ap lists tbh.
Click to expand...

Who are the five? Is this on price or chance you give them?

I get the age thing and potential class of race this time round. Not sure he was lucky in March mind.
 
Back
Top