The Road to the Grand National 2018

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
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With the first really big handicaps of the season just around the corner and 25/1 the field, anyone got any strong fancies at this stage?

Me? I think it's a one horse race...

(I'm such a tease :whistle:)
 
At this early point in the season I feel one should be looking outside the fancied horses to get AP value.

One that caught my eye when mentioned in Harrington's stable tour comments was Sandymount Duke. It was said that the horse would have the National as a target. Maybe that is a reference to the Irish National however this improving,good ground horse has fine form over 3 miles and has run at Aintree. Some of his stablemates are also likely to be contenders but 66/1 allows an involvement for a small amount and might provide a triumph of hope over expectation.
 
Grasshopper said:
You reckon he'll win the Gold Cup and The National, DO??

:p
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:)

I think he could win the Gold Cup but I'm not sure he's being trained for it. Last year the Gold Cup winner got £327k, the National winner got about 70% more than that.

I backed him for the Gold Cup after I gave him a higher rating for wining the Ultima than I'd given the Gold Cup winner and emailed David Pipe to tell him how good I thought the horse was. The reply was very non-committal, thanking me for my interest but nothing was being ruled in or out (words to that effect other than that they might train him for the National and he might get an entry for the Gold Cup).

Anyroads, I backed him again for the Gold Cup this morning each-way at 100/1. I still suspect he won't run but hey...
 
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Good post that DO and I'm of a similar way of thinking.

In a surely unprecedented after timing double, I'd backed him for the Ultima in 2016 and was all set to back Singlefarmpayment in this year's renewal but having missed the morning prices made a last minute, lager fueled decision that Pipe would have been perfectly justified in running him in the Gold Cup but had instead elected to run him again in the Ultima with top weight so must have thought he was up to carrying it, which of course he was.

He's definitely worthy of a place in the Gold Cup and I'll be gutted on the day at missing the three figures prices if they do go down that route (though I doubt they will) but I'm not sure he'll be so suited to the Grand National. He's jumped around Cheltenham twice in what is always a fiercely competitive handicap and the Aintree fences are obviously not what they were but I reckon he's one of those horses who's styles are perfectly suited to Ultima - Holywell was another - and he'll need a hell of a lot of luck in running.

All horses will of course but in Native River I'd be considerably more confident that he'll be ridden handy and he strikes me as much more of a solid jumping proposition.

All that said, due to my financially biased affection for the horse I would not let him go unbacked.
 
Vyta Du Roc. Nicky has it over hurdles tomorrow plainly protecting his mark although 140 wouldn't have got in last year.
 
Minella Rocco is the one I'll monitor closely.

Jonjo already talking about lowering his sights (i.e. arranging some handicap-mark relief), he likes good ground, and he stays forever. The 33/1 available looks a fair-enough price, imo.
 
Last year i managed to Vieux Lion Rouge at 66s, One For Arthur at 25s and Cause of Causes at 33s.

This year I'm struggling as I can't find any trainers that have specifically said they are targeting the national. I short listed 3 that I think could run a race in the national. I've just not seen/heard anything of the said horses targets.

Premier Bond
Gold Present (not sure it'd stay) both at 66s.

Also for some reason I have scribbled Lord Scoundrel down? Think it's an Elliot horse, but no price available on this.
 
I don't normally start thinking seriously about the National until after the Hennessy at the earliest and usually some time in the new year.

It was doing the Hennessy the other day that got me thinking (plus I have time nowadays) as I was expecting UTPT to be in the field.

This morning I checked the RP site to see if he had any entries and it seems there's an archive article that mentions him going for the Gold Cup. I let my membership lapse so can't access the article but I presume it's a recent one. I'll take that as a positive.

Of course, things happen during the course of a season. I reckon this time last season One For Arthur wouldn't have been on many people's - if any - radar for the Grand National but on the day he was on just about everybody's. Even so, my mark for UTPT would be good enough to win just about any of the last 20 or 30 renewals. (Assuming it's accurate, of course!)

I study form. My brother is an instinctive punter. He's a big Blaklion fan who also believes he "did a Hedgehunter" last season, ie ran with the choke out for too long on his first attempt. I'm open to that possibility but I'm not convinced he will be handicapped leniently on the day. He'll probably get an extra few pounds for his race form.

Vieux Lion Rouge has now had two goes and two completions. Both times my figures have him running 7-10lbs below his other form so although he can jump round and stay as well as negotiate Haydock effectively, this maybe isn't his course or maybe he doesn't truly stay at National pace. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't target the race this time.
 
Based on that assessment Vieux Lion Rouge should be looking at Fairyhouse instead of Aintree.
 
90%+ of UK-trained handicappers are about 6lbs badly in compared with their Irish counterparts.

Only exceptionally well handicapped UK horses have any chance over there.

I'd say Chepstow or Ayr.
 
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I've taken an average if 150 this morning about Sugar Baron, in the expectation of a bold show in the London National at Sandown on Saturday.

After looking like he would be hopelessly tailed-off at one point, he was staying-on like a freight-train in the 3m1f handicap chase at Cheltenham's November Meeting; ending-up a fast-diminishing half-length second to What A Moment. This longer trip is sure to suit him much better, and the track should be more to his liking too, after he finished a really good 5th in a blanket-finish to the Whitbread last season.

He likely needs to win at least one good handicap over the course of the season, to get a high-enough mark to get into the National, and he will hopefully get the job done on Saturday. I've also backed him at 7/1 for Sandown.
 
Was at Newbury on Sat, and didn't see anything to put me off backing Carole's Destrier again. Once again, just jumped every fence very economically and was in process of trying to gain on the leading group when hampered by the faller 2 out. Will just keep backing e.w. from next week until hopefully runs this year.
 
Westerner Point tackles the Becher Chase Saturday; backed in from 33 to 16 with Ladbrokes.
As game a horse as ever looked through a bridle owned and trained by a sporting bunch of guys near me; nobody will be cheering louder for him Saturday than me.
 
I haven't finalised my figures for the race but I'm wondering if The Last Samuri has improved again coming into this season.

The majority of decent chasers tend to post hurdles figures 10-20lbs below their chase form when they revert to the smaller obstacles. On his recent reappearance, TLS posted a lifetime high - by a long way - over hurdles. Now, it should be emphasised that he last ran over hurdles some years ago and he made a lot of progress over fences after that, but even so I would not have expected him to be up to running within 5lbs or so of his chase mark first time up over hurdles.

I can see me having at least a saver on him on Saturday and if he were to win I think he'd merit an entry in the Gold Cup. However, if the National is the be-all-and-end-all for him I imagine they'll be trying to get his mark down.
 
Word round these parts is the Festival Cross Country is the objective, that's not to be saying he won't try for the GN as well

Just checked, there's a four week gap between the Festival and the GN meeting in 2018 so not an arduous task as it might be.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Word round these parts is the Festival Cross Country is the objective, that's not to be saying he won't try for the GN as well

Just checked, there's a four week gap between the Festival and the GN meeting in 2018 so not an arduous task as it might be.
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Is that for The Last Samuri, DG?
 
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