The Road to the Grand National 2018
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
- Start date
Thanks Paul.
I was really impressed with him at Cheltenham, to try and make all in a race like the Ultima and then having being swamped for pace coming down the hill (second year in succession) be running on again for third shows a great attitude and his Aintree win on the Mildmay course last year, where he just galloped away at the finish was nice.
He’ll have a fantastic chance if the ground comes up soft but even on gd-soft I’d have him bang there over this trip as long as his jumping holds up but that applies to all of the runners.
He’s only 8 but so was One For Arthur and 50/1 is too big, albeit there aren’t any NRNB offers at that price, hence m6 enquiry. Bits of 60.0 available on the machine
I was really impressed with him at Cheltenham, to try and make all in a race like the Ultima and then having being swamped for pace coming down the hill (second year in succession) be running on again for third shows a great attitude and his Aintree win on the Mildmay course last year, where he just galloped away at the finish was nice.
He’ll have a fantastic chance if the ground comes up soft but even on gd-soft I’d have him bang there over this trip as long as his jumping holds up but that applies to all of the runners.
He’s only 8 but so was One For Arthur and 50/1 is too big, albeit there aren’t any NRNB offers at that price, hence m6 enquiry. Bits of 60.0 available on the machine
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
If we finally get some decent ground I still like Gold Present a lot for this race.
Gold Present pulled up to bleeding from the nose, not sure the severity of it mind.
Id hope this was the target for Vintage Clouds, even to prep him this year for a full tilt at the nash next year. Hemmings loves Aintree as well.
Id hope this was the target for Vintage Clouds, even to prep him this year for a full tilt at the nash next year. Hemmings loves Aintree as well.
Last edited:
edgt
Senior Jockey
Indeed he does and a fourth winner would put him in the history books.
If it doesnt make the cut you will get your money back.but if its took out you wont.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Also like the look of Tiger Roll.
archie
Senior Jockey
Regal Encore has a lot going for him. Always a barge-pole job in the past, he seems to be finishing off his races this season and (under a cautious ride) last season was running on at the end. If his first experience of the fences hasn't put him off, I think he'll go well off 150.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
If my long-term forecast site is right we should have proper good ground for the Aintree festival.
The worry is the artificial watering of the National course.
I've completed my trawl of the ones I think will make the cut. I have to say, Rule The World's win appears to have made Noel Meade greedy for more success in the race. His possible runners look ridiculously well handicapped on their best old form. Could he have put them away for two or three years for one race?
I don't know if the format will transfer across to this site but I'll try and post the figures over the next day or two.
The worry is the artificial watering of the National course.
I've completed my trawl of the ones I think will make the cut. I have to say, Rule The World's win appears to have made Noel Meade greedy for more success in the race. His possible runners look ridiculously well handicapped on their best old form. Could he have put them away for two or three years for one race?
I don't know if the format will transfer across to this site but I'll try and post the figures over the next day or two.
frontrunner
Conditional
- Joined
- Oct 14, 2011
- Messages
- 719
Wasn't Rule the World trained by Mouse Morris or has the horse been moved ?
I thought it was retired.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 13,884
Retired after the Punchestown Festival two years ago.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
Yes, my bad. I often mix up Meade and Morris.
Obviously I knew RTW wasn't last year. I backed it and I also backed One For Arthur last year.
Obviously I knew RTW wasn't last year. I backed it and I also backed One For Arthur last year.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
I honestly can't see anything currently on offer at less than 20/1 being involved. Bellshill, if he turns up, might do the best of them but it's looking like the 11-0 mark or more is going make life very difficult to defy. I'm not basing that on stats. I'm basing it on handicap figures.
Of the 40 likely to run, this will rule out the top ten in the current list of weights.
Of the 40 likely to run, this will rule out the top ten in the current list of weights.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 13,884
Bellshill is going for the Irish National........... if you believe Mullins
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
These are my own (MON B) ratings for the race. It's an edited version of the full table to enable it to transfer across to this format. Anything less than 184, or without the potential to be rated at least 184 on the scale, will need to hope those above it don't run to their best form on the day, which is entirely possible. The figures in brackets in the 'Notes' column refer to older form. Those annotated with a B relate to the main column. Ignore the A ratings as I've edited out that main column.
Last year, for example, One For Arthur was just below the target figure but was a '+p' on my ratings (as was the runner-up Cause Of Causes). On my figures for the race itself he was a slightly above average winner. However, if Definitly Red had run to his pre-race figure (and he also had a 'p' next to it) he'd have dead-heated for first place. Unfortunately he was hampered out of it. That's the way it can go in the National in terms of luck but a badly-handicapped horse rarely wins.
Saint Are last year, as another example, was simply not handicapped to win but he ran a career best and still couldn't get within 8 lengths of winning. And he wouldn't have been placed if others had been able to complete or fully stay.
Unfortunately it isn't easy to know for sure what will stay and what won't until they've tried it, likewise with taking to the fences. But the winner, I must emphasise, will be handicapped to win. It would be quite rare for that not to be the case.
[TABLE="width: 746"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Wt
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON B
(184+)
[/TD]
[TD]
Notes
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 48
[/TD]
[TD]5-090P
[/TD]
[TD] Road To Riches
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]197
[/TD]
[TD]?
{191?A}
{199?B}
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 47
[/TD]
[TD]-4UP84
[/TD]
[TD] Double Ross
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]192½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 35
[/TD]
[TD]23-18P
[/TD]
[TD] Virgilio
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]190½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD]120-P6
[/TD]
[TD] Tenor Nivernais
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]11-0
[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD]++?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 29
[/TD]
[TD]11F3-1
[/TD]
[TD] Bellshill
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 50
[/TD]
[TD]-P84PF
[/TD]
[TD] Thunder And Roses
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]M F Morris
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD](179A)
(191B)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 28
[/TD]
[TD]419-0P
[/TD]
[TD] Pleasant Company
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 24
[/TD]
[TD]3/1P2-
[/TD]
[TD] Seeyouatmidnight
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Sandy Thomson
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]189½
[/TD]
[TD]? p?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 53
[/TD]
[TD]P08207
[/TD]
[TD] Wounded Warrior
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-1
[/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]189½
[/TD]
[TD][185?A]
[198½]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 52
[/TD]
[TD]-12423
[/TD]
[TD] Vintage Clouds
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-3
[/TD]
[TD]Sue Smith
[/TD]
[TD]141
[/TD]
[TD]189½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 54
[/TD]
[TD]-47046
[/TD]
[TD] General Principle
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-1
[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]189½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 49
[/TD]
[TD]-33135
[/TD]
[TD] Delusionofgrandeur
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]Sue Smith
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]189
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 51
[/TD]
[TD]7-513P
[/TD]
[TD] Walk In The Mill
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-3
[/TD]
[TD]Robert Walford
[/TD]
[TD]141
[/TD]
[TD]188½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 46
[/TD]
[TD]6-2359
[/TD]
[TD] Final Nudge
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]David Dennis
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]188½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 23
[/TD]
[TD]15-U22
[/TD]
[TD] Warriors Tale
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]187½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD]8-03P1
[/TD]
[TD] Regal Encore
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]Anthony Honeyball
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]187
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 30
[/TD]
[TD]24U-2P
[/TD]
[TD] Ucello Conti
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-9
[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]186½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 38
[/TD]
[TD]50/2-0
[/TD]
[TD] Pendra
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Longsdon
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]186½
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 36
[/TD]
[TD]13-663
[/TD]
[TD] Baie Des Iles
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Ross O'Sullivan
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]186½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 44
[/TD]
[TD]6-PP1F
[/TD]
[TD] Bless The Wings
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]186½
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD]4-7U5P
[/TD]
[TD] Carlingford Lough
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]11-0
[/TD]
[TD]John E Kiely
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[TD]186
[/TD]
[TD]? e
(185?A)
(192?B)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD]PP2222
[/TD]
[TD] Shantou Flyer
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-1
[/TD]
[TD]Richard Hobson
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[TD]185½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 31
[/TD]
[TD]F23-PP
[/TD]
[TD] Saint Are
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]10-9
[/TD]
[TD]Tom George
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]185½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 33
[/TD]
[TD]0-F221
[/TD]
[TD] Raz De Maree
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]10-8
[/TD]
[TD]Gavin Cromwell
[/TD]
[TD]146
[/TD]
[TD]185
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 41
[/TD]
[TD]-1663P
[/TD]
[TD] Houblon Des Obeaux
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-6
[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]185
[/TD]
[TD](182A)
(193B)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]F1-2UP
[/TD]
[TD] Vicente
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-13
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]184½
[/TD]
[TD]+p g?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 40
[/TD]
[TD]951-2P
[/TD]
[TD] Childrens List
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]184½
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 45
[/TD]
[TD]63U152
[/TD]
[TD] Milansbar
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Neil King
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]184½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 26
[/TD]
[TD]45-F13
[/TD]
[TD] Gas Line Boy
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]Ian Williams
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]184
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18
[/TD]
[TD]16-474
[/TD]
[TD] Vieux Lion Rouge
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]184
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD]0-11U5
[/TD]
[TD] Go Conquer
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-13
[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O'Neill
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]183½
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19
[/TD]
[TD]112BU1
[/TD]
[TD] Rathvinden
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]183
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD]-11992
[/TD]
[TD] A Genie In Abottle
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]182½
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 39
[/TD]
[TD]4-8610
[/TD]
[TD] Buywise
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]182½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD]P-0105
[/TD]
[TD] Perfect Candidate
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[TD]Fergal O'Brien
[/TD]
[TD]154
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD]512-0P
[/TD]
[TD] Cause Of Causes
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]11-1
[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[TD]181½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 32
[/TD]
[TD]11-197
[/TD]
[TD] Beeves
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-9
[/TD]
[TD]Jennie Candlish
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]181½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 34
[/TD]
[TD]3-3412
[/TD]
[TD] I Just Know
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Sue Smith
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]181½
[/TD]
[TD]? p +?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 55
[/TD]
[TD]-1PPPP
[/TD]
[TD] Vic De Touzaine
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-1
[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]181½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD]0-2243
[/TD]
[TD] The Last Samuri
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]11-7
[/TD]
[TD]Kim Bailey
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]180½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD]5-111F
[/TD]
[TD] Total Recall
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]p? +?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD]P-2P51
[/TD]
[TD] Tiger Roll
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 27
[/TD]
[TD]7-261P
[/TD]
[TD] The Dutchman
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 43
[/TD]
[TD]-36121
[/TD]
[TD] Captain Redbeard
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-6
[/TD]
[TD]Stuart Coltherd
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]+? ++?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 42
[/TD]
[TD]2957-F
[/TD]
[TD] Lord Windermere
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]10-6
[/TD]
[TD]J H Culloty
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]{192?A}
{203?B}
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 25
[/TD]
[TD]-214U0
[/TD]
[TD] As De Mee
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]178½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD]2F-11P
[/TD]
[TD] Gold Present
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-3
[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]178½
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD]2-4P4F
[/TD]
[TD] Minella Rocco
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O'Neill
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[TD]178
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD]14-555
[/TD]
[TD] Valseur Lido
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-6
[/TD]
[TD]Henry De Bromhead
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[TD]178
[/TD]
[TD]? (182?A)
(186?B)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD]51-1PP
[/TD]
[TD] Chase The Spud
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Fergal O'Brien
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]177½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD]414646
[/TD]
[TD] Alpha Des Obeaux
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-3
[/TD]
[TD]M F Morris
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]176½
[/TD]
[TD](177?A)
(182½?B)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]24-212
[/TD]
[TD] Blaklion
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-9
[/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]175½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]-591F3
[/TD]
[TD] Anibale Fly
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-7
[/TD]
[TD]A J Martin
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]174½
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20
[/TD]
[TD]65-F2P
[/TD]
[TD] Acapella Bourgeois
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD](174?A)
(175??+pB) v y
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 37
[/TD]
[TD]04-443
[/TD]
[TD] Maggio
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Griffin
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD][177A]
[187½B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Last year, for example, One For Arthur was just below the target figure but was a '+p' on my ratings (as was the runner-up Cause Of Causes). On my figures for the race itself he was a slightly above average winner. However, if Definitly Red had run to his pre-race figure (and he also had a 'p' next to it) he'd have dead-heated for first place. Unfortunately he was hampered out of it. That's the way it can go in the National in terms of luck but a badly-handicapped horse rarely wins.
Saint Are last year, as another example, was simply not handicapped to win but he ran a career best and still couldn't get within 8 lengths of winning. And he wouldn't have been placed if others had been able to complete or fully stay.
Unfortunately it isn't easy to know for sure what will stay and what won't until they've tried it, likewise with taking to the fences. But the winner, I must emphasise, will be handicapped to win. It would be quite rare for that not to be the case.
[TABLE="width: 746"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Wt
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON B
(184+)
[/TD]
[TD]
Notes
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 48
[/TD]
[TD]5-090P
[/TD]
[TD] Road To Riches
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]197
[/TD]
[TD]?
{191?A}
{199?B}
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 47
[/TD]
[TD]-4UP84
[/TD]
[TD] Double Ross
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]192½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 35
[/TD]
[TD]23-18P
[/TD]
[TD] Virgilio
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]190½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD]120-P6
[/TD]
[TD] Tenor Nivernais
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]11-0
[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD]++?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 29
[/TD]
[TD]11F3-1
[/TD]
[TD] Bellshill
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 50
[/TD]
[TD]-P84PF
[/TD]
[TD] Thunder And Roses
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]M F Morris
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD](179A)
(191B)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 28
[/TD]
[TD]419-0P
[/TD]
[TD] Pleasant Company
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]190
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 24
[/TD]
[TD]3/1P2-
[/TD]
[TD] Seeyouatmidnight
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Sandy Thomson
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]189½
[/TD]
[TD]? p?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 53
[/TD]
[TD]P08207
[/TD]
[TD] Wounded Warrior
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-1
[/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]189½
[/TD]
[TD][185?A]
[198½]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 52
[/TD]
[TD]-12423
[/TD]
[TD] Vintage Clouds
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-3
[/TD]
[TD]Sue Smith
[/TD]
[TD]141
[/TD]
[TD]189½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 54
[/TD]
[TD]-47046
[/TD]
[TD] General Principle
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-1
[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]189½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 49
[/TD]
[TD]-33135
[/TD]
[TD] Delusionofgrandeur
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]Sue Smith
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]189
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 51
[/TD]
[TD]7-513P
[/TD]
[TD] Walk In The Mill
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-3
[/TD]
[TD]Robert Walford
[/TD]
[TD]141
[/TD]
[TD]188½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 46
[/TD]
[TD]6-2359
[/TD]
[TD] Final Nudge
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]David Dennis
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]188½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 23
[/TD]
[TD]15-U22
[/TD]
[TD] Warriors Tale
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]187½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD]8-03P1
[/TD]
[TD] Regal Encore
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]Anthony Honeyball
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]187
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 30
[/TD]
[TD]24U-2P
[/TD]
[TD] Ucello Conti
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-9
[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]186½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 38
[/TD]
[TD]50/2-0
[/TD]
[TD] Pendra
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Longsdon
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]186½
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 36
[/TD]
[TD]13-663
[/TD]
[TD] Baie Des Iles
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Ross O'Sullivan
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]186½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 44
[/TD]
[TD]6-PP1F
[/TD]
[TD] Bless The Wings
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]186½
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD]4-7U5P
[/TD]
[TD] Carlingford Lough
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]11-0
[/TD]
[TD]John E Kiely
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[TD]186
[/TD]
[TD]? e
(185?A)
(192?B)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD]PP2222
[/TD]
[TD] Shantou Flyer
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-1
[/TD]
[TD]Richard Hobson
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[TD]185½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 31
[/TD]
[TD]F23-PP
[/TD]
[TD] Saint Are
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]10-9
[/TD]
[TD]Tom George
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]185½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 33
[/TD]
[TD]0-F221
[/TD]
[TD] Raz De Maree
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]10-8
[/TD]
[TD]Gavin Cromwell
[/TD]
[TD]146
[/TD]
[TD]185
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 41
[/TD]
[TD]-1663P
[/TD]
[TD] Houblon Des Obeaux
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-6
[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]185
[/TD]
[TD](182A)
(193B)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]F1-2UP
[/TD]
[TD] Vicente
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-13
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]184½
[/TD]
[TD]+p g?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 40
[/TD]
[TD]951-2P
[/TD]
[TD] Childrens List
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]184½
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 45
[/TD]
[TD]63U152
[/TD]
[TD] Milansbar
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]Neil King
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]184½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 26
[/TD]
[TD]45-F13
[/TD]
[TD] Gas Line Boy
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]Ian Williams
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]184
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18
[/TD]
[TD]16-474
[/TD]
[TD] Vieux Lion Rouge
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]184
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD]0-11U5
[/TD]
[TD] Go Conquer
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-13
[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O'Neill
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]183½
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19
[/TD]
[TD]112BU1
[/TD]
[TD] Rathvinden
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]183
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD]-11992
[/TD]
[TD] A Genie In Abottle
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]182½
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 39
[/TD]
[TD]4-8610
[/TD]
[TD] Buywise
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]182½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD]P-0105
[/TD]
[TD] Perfect Candidate
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[TD]Fergal O'Brien
[/TD]
[TD]154
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD]512-0P
[/TD]
[TD] Cause Of Causes
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]11-1
[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[TD]181½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 32
[/TD]
[TD]11-197
[/TD]
[TD] Beeves
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-9
[/TD]
[TD]Jennie Candlish
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]181½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 34
[/TD]
[TD]3-3412
[/TD]
[TD] I Just Know
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Sue Smith
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]181½
[/TD]
[TD]? p +?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 55
[/TD]
[TD]-1PPPP
[/TD]
[TD] Vic De Touzaine
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-1
[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]181½
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD]0-2243
[/TD]
[TD] The Last Samuri
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]11-7
[/TD]
[TD]Kim Bailey
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]180½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD]5-111F
[/TD]
[TD] Total Recall
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]p? +?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD]P-2P51
[/TD]
[TD] Tiger Roll
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 27
[/TD]
[TD]7-261P
[/TD]
[TD] The Dutchman
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 43
[/TD]
[TD]-36121
[/TD]
[TD] Captain Redbeard
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-6
[/TD]
[TD]Stuart Coltherd
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]+? ++?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 42
[/TD]
[TD]2957-F
[/TD]
[TD] Lord Windermere
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]10-6
[/TD]
[TD]J H Culloty
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]{192?A}
{203?B}
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 25
[/TD]
[TD]-214U0
[/TD]
[TD] As De Mee
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]178½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD]2F-11P
[/TD]
[TD] Gold Present
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-3
[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]178½
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD]2-4P4F
[/TD]
[TD] Minella Rocco
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O'Neill
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[TD]178
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD]14-555
[/TD]
[TD] Valseur Lido
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-6
[/TD]
[TD]Henry De Bromhead
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[TD]178
[/TD]
[TD]? (182?A)
(186?B)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD]51-1PP
[/TD]
[TD] Chase The Spud
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Fergal O'Brien
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]177½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD]414646
[/TD]
[TD] Alpha Des Obeaux
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-3
[/TD]
[TD]M F Morris
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]176½
[/TD]
[TD](177?A)
(182½?B)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]24-212
[/TD]
[TD] Blaklion
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-9
[/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]175½
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]-591F3
[/TD]
[TD] Anibale Fly
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-7
[/TD]
[TD]A J Martin
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]174½
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20
[/TD]
[TD]65-F2P
[/TD]
[TD] Acapella Bourgeois
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD](174?A)
(175??+pB) v y
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 37
[/TD]
[TD]04-443
[/TD]
[TD] Maggio
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Griffin
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD][177A]
[187½B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
archie
Senior Jockey
Thanks for those, Dessie. Is there any particular significance in the 184 cut-off?
Last edited:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
I wouldn't have cited it if there weren't
That's the equivalent rating to Cause Of Causes' run in the race last year. Anything with that rating or the potential to reach it (or better) has the potential to be placed second in an average renewal. In 2016 it might have been good enough for fourth place.
archie
Senior Jockey
Cheers. I knew it wouldn't be a random figure but I wondered if it might be a mark a certain number of pounds below top rated.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
Another angle I like to keep onside is the class one. Most modern-day winners either have in their CV or have the potential to be a 160+ (at least on my ratings) horse. Again, using One For Arthur as an example, I had him on 157+p going into the race last year so it wasn't difficult to believe he had the class.
Not many winners in the last 10-12 years miss out on that angle. I think maybe Auroras Encore was the last but he was extremely well handicapped, 6lbs lower than when beaten in a photo in the previous year's Ayr National, and there weren't many class horses in it that year. Of the 55 listed above, I can count at least 24 with the figure either there (current or back form) or potentially there.
Not many winners in the last 10-12 years miss out on that angle. I think maybe Auroras Encore was the last but he was extremely well handicapped, 6lbs lower than when beaten in a photo in the previous year's Ayr National, and there weren't many class horses in it that year. Of the 55 listed above, I can count at least 24 with the figure either there (current or back form) or potentially there.
Last edited:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
He's very much on my radar, Marble. He was looking like being involved in the finish last year when stumbling badly. Whether Ruby was planning on sticking with him or switching to Total Recall is another matter...
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
Yet another angle I like to explore is the change in ratings from those that took part last year and who look set to turn up again this time. I allow two lengths per pound.
Saint Are comes out best of them as he's on the same mark so in theory he can run the same race as last year. But his position in the table above illustrates how many horses are potentially better-handicapped than him. 66/1 could look good and it could look awful.
Blaklion, the current favourite, is now weighted to finish nearly 20 lengths behind him. On my ratings he's 4lbs better this year so that can be reduced to 12 lengths but it still places him no better than about four lengths behind Gas Line Boy. If you believe he went too soon you could bring him forward but by how much? For me, still nowhere near enough to make him dangerous.
Cause Of Causes (20/1) is weighted to finish two lengths behind Saint Are (66/1). Will Elliott have found more improvement in him? He'll need to.
It's hard to say how much closer Pleasant Company (40/1) could have finished but for that terrible blunder last year (when he was only 11/1). If he had run to my pre-race figure for him he could have been third and he should be another two lengths closer this time.
Another one who is better weighted this time is Lord Windermere, by three pounds or six lengths. But the formbook reckons he had a nightmare run last year:
He's also 66/1 but will probably be longer nearer the day.
Saint Are comes out best of them as he's on the same mark so in theory he can run the same race as last year. But his position in the table above illustrates how many horses are potentially better-handicapped than him. 66/1 could look good and it could look awful.
Blaklion, the current favourite, is now weighted to finish nearly 20 lengths behind him. On my ratings he's 4lbs better this year so that can be reduced to 12 lengths but it still places him no better than about four lengths behind Gas Line Boy. If you believe he went too soon you could bring him forward but by how much? For me, still nowhere near enough to make him dangerous.
Cause Of Causes (20/1) is weighted to finish two lengths behind Saint Are (66/1). Will Elliott have found more improvement in him? He'll need to.
It's hard to say how much closer Pleasant Company (40/1) could have finished but for that terrible blunder last year (when he was only 11/1). If he had run to my pre-race figure for him he could have been third and he should be another two lengths closer this time.
Another one who is better weighted this time is Lord Windermere, by three pounds or six lengths. But the formbook reckons he had a nightmare run last year:
He's also 66/1 but will probably be longer nearer the day.
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