The Road to the Grand National 2018

I'm not sure if you can take collateral lines of form too seriously from a cross country race given the different type of configuration of the course and the pace the races are generally run at. I keep looking at Tiger Roll and how he's put 13 lengths on The last Samuri at level weights given that he receives 9lb from him in the National he just looks a bit of a snip. Given how well The last Samuri was punted at Cheltenham it wasn't as though they were thinking it was just a prep run. If you looked at the lines and compared them with those against Blaklion I think it certainly highlights the task he faces if nothing else.
 
No, I don't take x-country form literally.

As for the race the other week, The Last Samuri disappointed me. In my post-race analysis I wrote:

I have to confess to being a little disappointed that The Last Samuri appeared not to get home, considering he has Grand National form. However, the form book race comment said he was sweating, something that has never happened before, and he was treated after the race for mild heat stress. Maybe he had an excuse but maybe it will happen again. Could his long, honourable career be catching up with his head? I might now try and lay off my bet on him (40/1) for the big one. With Cause Of Causes not running his race, Bless The Wings falling and Cantlow pulling up, Tiger Roll maybe didn’t have to do too much to win. He has improved past Auvergnat but that one lost its place mid-race and maybe didn’t really run to form. The French runner-up came from the back when nothing else did and maybe lost more ground than it was beaten by with a mistake three out. The fifth horse was only rated 130 so it might not have been that great a race.
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So, for me, for some reason or other, TLS has not run his race. At first I thought Tiger Roll had improved an awful lot and I got in at 50/1 before the bookies adjusted the price. I'd be happy to lay that off at a quarter of that now as the other lines suggest he didn't improve that much.
 
Ive done two

Pleasant company and Ucello conti took 33s both.
I think Ucello conti is a really good price.
 
I've now watched the full race from last year another twice and from three out a further three times.

Anything that finished behind Gas Line Boy can be eliminated from this year's race as a non-stayer, bar obviously those that were unlucky along the way.

So the following have no chance:

Vieux Lion Rouge
Lord Windermere
Regal Encore
Pleasant Company
Houblon Des Obeaux
The Last Samuri*
Tenor Nivernais*

*I'm of a mood to forgive these two. TLS we know from the previous year does stay so presumably had a problem and his first couple of runs this season suggests he's improved again. He might not fancy another go, though. Tenor Nivernais for me has the ability to win so I won't desert him as I simply don't believe we've seen the real ability since Ascot last year.

From 2016 I'd eliminate the following for the same reason:

Ucello Conti
Buywise
 
I always thought Amerberliegh house looked as if it didn't get the trip the year before it won it Des which would make me cautious with such an approach. I suppose I'm living in hope because I have rather chunky return on Vieux lion rouge if he can manage to frame via the place part of some ew doubles I included him in. I don't know whether you have it the same but I have him putting in a big figure in the National trial last year before he went to Aintree I'm wondering/hoping that was a reason for his powder puff finish last year. He's barely raised a gallop this year and hoping that helps him out come the day. Also feel he'd be dependant on having a decent surface to hold any chance whatsoever.

Also ruling something like Ucello conti out on a non staying basis Des from 2016. What would your thoughts be on age? Off the top of my head is he a 10yo now ? Would he not stand more chance of getting the trip with another couple of years on his back ?
 
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[FONT=&quot]Key stats this century appear to be

Won over at least 3m previously[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Aged 9 or older[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Ran less than 50 days ago[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Officially rated 137 or higher[/FONT]
 
Danny said:
I always thought Amerberliegh house looked as if it didn't get the trip the year before it won it Des which would make me cautious with such an approach. I suppose I'm living in hope because I have rather chunky return on Vieux lion rouge if he can manage to frame via the place part of some ew doubles I included him in. I don't know whether you have it the same but I have him putting in a big figure in the National trial last year before he went to Aintree I'm wondering/hoping that was a reason for his powder puff finish last year. He's barely raised a gallop this year and hoping that helps him out come the day. Also feel he'd be dependant on having a decent surface to hold any chance whatsoever.

Also ruling something like Ucello conti out on a non staying basis Des from 2016. What would your thoughts be on age? Off the top of my head is he a 10yo now ? Would he not stand more chance of getting the trip with another couple of years on his back ?
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Vieux Lion Rouge was one of the first I eliminated last year on the basis of his weak finish the year before. I still thought he'd run very well for a 7yo and expected him to do a wee bit better last year and he did but he was still left for dead from the last. He might stay a little better again this year but he's another pound higher. I think he'll be hunting up the placed horses again and, of course, if the proper stayers don't finish he could win by default.

Ucello Conti weakened more noticeably two years ago. He was another I eliminated straight away last year.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Key stats this century appear to be

Won over at least 3m previously
Aged 9 or older
Ran less than 50 days ago
Officially rated 137 or higher
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They can't run unless they've been placed at 3m or more, and most of them will have won, so that first stat applies to nearly everything.

It's now taking a rating of about 144 (might be nearer 140 this year) to make the cut so the 137 rating would apply to just about everything too.

I've always liked older horses in the race but we've had two 8yos in the last three years. Could that be a new trend developing?
 
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Splash of Ginge may not be the most consistent of animals but he is a horse with an awful lot of talent when he is right.

Winner of the Betfair and the Bet Victor he may not come across as a natural for a National but he wouldn't be the first 2m4f horse to win it.

What I like about him is he is the sort of horse that if he takes to something he's a very hard horse to beat.

If he gets a buzz from jumping the first few fences and likes what he's doing then it will take a good one to beat him.

I prefer Tiger Roll to Black Lion as he has more natural speed and I think he will stay

at the moment SPG and TR are my 2 against the field
 
Marble said:
I've decided i'm probably barking up the wrong tree with Thunder And Roses, I'm now looking at Captain Redbeard. He's improved a lot in his last two runs at Haydock. Those performances have seen his mark increase enough to stand a chance of making the cut. He's currently 59 on the list. If anyone can offer opinions on his chances of making the cut, it'd be appreciated.
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Captain Redbeard has come on to my radar, not so much because of his nice win at Haydock but because of his subsequent win over hurdles. My figure for him for that race was a long way ahead of anything he'd previously done over hurdles so if he can translate that improvement back over fences he could be nicely handicapped in much the same way Pineau De Re had prepped for his win.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tenor Nivernais*

Tenor Nivernais for me has the ability to win so I won't desert him as I simply don't believe we've seen the real ability since Ascot last year.
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He ran well on other occasions before that mighty Ascot run. I'm thinking he may have been done for the season after that win
and he simply hasn't been off/Venetia not in form this.
 
I've had a closer look at Seeyouatmidnight now that I've checked out his run at the weekend.

He could be a blot off 149.

He wasn't beaten far in the Stayers' Hurdle in Cole Harden's year and emerges a similar hurdler to Whisper, UTPT (a G1 winning hurdler) and, dare I say, Saphir Du Rheu who next time out won the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree for which he got an RPR of 168. As you know, I think UTPT could win a Gold Cup. Whisper went up to 169 for almost winning the Hennessy. Seeyouatmidnight off 149 anyone?

The following season SYAM beat Blaklion emerging roughly the same horse. Blaklion is now off 161. After disappointing in the RSA SYAM went close to winning the Scottish National despite taking a keen hold and not helping himself with a mistake at the last. He was a novice then and entitled to improve into his second season, as was Vicente who is now 5lbs higher.

There's a lot to like about Seeyouatmidnight, I have to say. Definite short-list material.
 
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Digger has been an advocate of SYAM for a good while, and whilst I’m usually disposed to oppose anything he puts up, I confess I am a little enamourned of his Aintree chance myself.

I’ve also backed Go Conquer, who I strongly-fancied for the Ultima at Cheltenham. He front-runs and jumps well, and should be able to keep himself out of trouble. Stamina is an unknown, but on spring ground and with softer fences, horses that get themselves into a good rhythm, can stay in contention much longer than was perhaps once the case, and I don’t think you need to be an absolutely dour stayer to win the race these days. Go Conquer also holds the Topham entry, but a price of 66/1 is generous enough to tempt me into a Nash bet.

I also keep being drawn back to Minella Rocco, which is mildly worrying. I haven’t backed him yet, but I suspect there’s a certain inevitability about it.
 
Timeform had this to say about Go Conquer:

[FONT=&quot]Strong-travelling front runner who could be dangerous if getting in a good rhythm.

[/FONT]I promise you I hadn't read it before I posted. :whistle:
 
Grasshopper said:
horses that get themselves into a good rhythm, can stay in contention much longer than was perhaps once the case, and I don’t think you need to be an absolutely dour stayer to win the race these days.
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This is the only bit I'd disagree with. If you look through the last three or four runnings from three out you'll how they go from being relatively well grouped to - especially from the last to the line - well strung out, because it's only the ones who really do stay who end up winning or going close.


Grasshopper said:
Go Conquer also holds the Topham entry, but a price of 66/1 is generous enough to tempt me into a Nash bet.

I also keep being drawn back to Minella Rocco, which is mildly worrying. I haven’t backed him yet, but I suspect there’s a certain inevitability about it.
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Three or four of the books are now NRNB and B365 also offer the BOG.

Edit - I like Go Conquer too because his form ties in with last year's Ultima and Tenor Nivernais's Ascot race. I'm just not sure he's well enough handicapped.
 
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SYAM and Go Conquer are two on my (fairly long) shortlist at the moment. Two more I like that could still retain sufficient class off their current marks are Road To Riches and Carlingford Lough. You could probably ask why I haven't got Lord Windemere in that category, so I'll just say one word in my defence, 'Culloty'.

The others I have to whittle down from are Vicente, Vintage Clouds, Delusionofgrandeur, Bellshill, I Just Know, Tiger Roll, and Tenor Ninervais.

I'll end up backing four from that list, but I haven't got the headspace at the moment to figure out which four.

If anyone has any good reasons to eliminate any of those however, I'm happy to hear them.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This is the only bit I'd disagree with. If you look through the last three or four runnings from three out you'll how they go from being relatively well grouped to - especially from the last to the line - well strung out, because it's only the ones who really do stay who end up winning or going close.
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Yeah......I kind of wasn't happy with the wording on it myself.

I guess what I was trying to say is that whilst you undoubtedly have to stay to win the race, there have been winners who were able to win at significantly shorter trips too i.e. horse's you wouldn't have defined as "absolutely dour stayers".

I'll try to demonstrate using practical examples - it might help.

One For Arthur would be the type of Nash winner I'd define as "absolutely a dour stayer". He is a horse that would be unsighted in any decent chase over 3 miles, and all he does is gallop forever. Many Clouds is a different type of Nash winner to OFA, as had plenty of smart Graded-level form at trips around 3m, before landing his Nash. Many Clouds would be a horse I'd describe as a "high-class stayer between 3-4m" rather than an "absolutely dour stayer". The point being, that there is really no identikit winner, and that very few of them go into the race anyway, with their stamina conclusively-proven at 4m.

I have Go Conquer down as being more of a Many Clouds type, than a One For Arthur type, hence I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt as regards his stamina..........but clearly, he will have to stay, to win.

Hope this helps clarify what I meant.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I guess what I was trying to say is that whilst you undoubtedly have to stay to win the race, there have been winners who were able to win at significantly shorter trips too i.e. horse's you wouldn't have defined as "absolutely dour stayers".
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Totally agree / understand.

This type is what I refer to as the 'class' type, the minor difference being that I want them to have a 160 (on my ratings, probably the equivalent of 155 on RPRs or maybe ORs) on their CV or in their locker. Many Clouds* had it and Go Conquer (160+p on my figures) has it.

* Edit - I should add that it still bemuses me that I didn't back Many Clouds that day. Hennessy winner etc etc and even after the race I was looking through my notes to see how much I had on it. Couldn't believe it when I discovered I didn't have a penny on it! My big bet that year was The Druids Nephew who was several lengths clear and lobbing when taking a very soft fall five or six out. Would he have done a Blaklion or a Ben Nevis?

My biggest bet last year ended up being Definitly Red.
 
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I like the classy type that stays 3m+ on soft ground. Give them an extra mile to run on better ground, and the bookies tend to overlook them as all their winning form is on the soft. Many Clouds fitted that profile. I'm drawn to the Carlingford Lough and R2R because of this, but I don't tend to back National horses with such poor recent form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If my long-term forecast site is right we should have proper good ground for the Aintree festival.
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The site has changed its forecast since I last looked. It's now saying there will be plenty of rain in the days leading up to the meeting and on the Thursday and Friday. Sunshine on the Saturday but that's fvck all good if the ground is already soft.

It's almost a total reversal of the previous forecast which had said virtually no rain up to and right through the meeting.

I hope its long term forecast for the Glasgow area for the summer is wrong. It's forecasting a long cold wet summer. I really need to get buggering off to Spain for good.
 
Jesus ******* christ, will this **** weather never end. Aintree will be a horror show on deep ground and I won't be taking part. Looking forward to the flat now.
 
I like horror shows.

Agree about the flat. I wouldn't usually be welcoming its return like.
 
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